Karen had read my post
on bond duration, where I explained that investors should try to match the duration of their bond fund to their time horizon.
Not exact matches
By the way, the
duration of the five - year 5 %
bond (using a current yield of 3 % and semi-annual compounding) is 4.68 years (calculated
on my spreadsheet).
However you go about getting the
durations, I encourage you to use this useful tool in your future
bond selections, and even to use it
on any
bonds you already hold.
Breakevens are indications of future inflation expectations, calculated by subtracting the yield
on Treasury Inflation - Protected Securities notes from Treasury
bonds of the same
duration.
The Central banker announced an adjustment in the «size, composition and
duration» of the
bond - buying program, with a decision to be taken at the next meeting
on 6 December.
«Focus
on securities with shorter
durations —
bonds with maturities in the five - year range and stocks paying dividends that offer 3 % — 4 % yields.
Given those
durations, an investor with 15 - 20 years to invest could literally plow their entire portfolio into stocks and long - term
bonds, in expectation of very high long - term returns, with the additional comfort that their financial security did not rely
on the direction of the markets, thanks to the ability to reinvest generous coupon payments and dividends.
The
duration of the
on - the - run 30 - year
bond is about 20 years.
Duration, the most commonly used measure of
bond risk, quantifies the effect of changes in interest rates
on the price of a
bond or
bond portfolio.
This could be a drag
on current growth and cause risk -
on / risk - off gyrations, making long -
duration bonds useful portfolio diversifiers.
I've placed them
on separate scales since the
duration of 10 - year
bonds is smaller, and has much less volatility than the
duration of stocks.
Short
duration bond funds can help you manage the impact of interest rate changes
on your portfolio.
All else equal, volatility in
bond prices from interest rate moves is higher the longer you go out
on the maturity and
duration spectrum and the lower the level of interest rates.
Over the long term the nominal return
on a
duration - managed
bond portfolio (or
bond index — the
duration on those doesn't change very much) converges
on the starting yield.
Strategic Total Return continues to carry a
duration of about 3.5 years in Treasury securities (meaning that a 100 basis point move in interest rates would be expected to impact the Fund by about 3.5 %
on the basis of
bond price fluctuations), and holds about 10 % of assets in precious metals shares, and about 5 % of assets in utility shares.
This additional yield
on a riskier credit
bond is called the credit spread, and it's measured against a similar
duration U.S. Treasury
bond.
If the Dollar broke lower, its likely too that
bonds and
duration would rally; defensives (staples, utes, reits) and growth (tech / biotech / discret) squeeze against crowded value unwinding (fins, energy, indus); yen and euro would squeeze mightily; gold squeezes while copper pukes in a favorite commodities «pair» unwind; HY could reverse weaker vs IG (currently everybody long CCC vs BB
on the high beta trade)... this would be the theoretical path to our next pain - trade or even VaR shock.
Particularly good to see someone explain that the impact
on bond funds is not the simplistic «1 % rise in bank rates means loss of
duration %» but depends
on the interest demanded at that point in the curve and normal supply / demand issues which are massively distorted for linkers.
Former Fed Governor Stein highlighted that Federal Reserve's monetary policy transmission mechanism works through the «recruitment channel,» in such way that investors are «enlisted» to achieve central bank objectives by taking higher credit risks, or to rebalance portfolio by buying longer - term
bonds (thus taking
on higher
duration risk) to seek higher yield when faced with diminished returns from safe assets.
@Matt — I should leave @TA to comment
on his article when he gets a chance, but just quickly the regular Vanguard
bond fund in the Slow and Steady portfolio has a
duration of 12.3 years versus the index - linked fund's much greater 23.1 year
duration.
The
on - the - run 30 - year
bond has a coupon of 2.25 %, which is about as low as you can get, which means lots of
duration.
Okay, so what is the
duration of the
on - the - run 30 - year
bond?
Income potential is generally higher than that paid by U.S. government
bonds of similar
duration and varies depending
on the fund's
duration and the quality of its
bonds.
With stocks
on shaky ground, investors with equity - centric portfolios may want to consider adding exposure to longer -
duration bonds.
Two important
bond measurements — credit quality and
duration — can give you a good indication of the income you might receive and the risk you are taking
on to pursue that income.
While this only goes back to 1999, it would still be insightful to compare these two indexes
on a year by year and aggregate basis for total return and volatility to get a true sense of the difference that treasury
bond duration makes.
And that's not only in the US, that's in Europe in particular, certainly in the UK, and it's difficult I think to have a certainty around it but I think our bias is that
bonds are
on the expensive side at the moment and we are generally in most developed markets running shy of benchmark
duration positions.
For now, the Strategic Total Return Fund continues to carry a limited
duration of about 2 years (meaning that a 100 basis point move in interest rates would be expected to impact the Fund by about 2 %
on the basis of
bond price fluctuations), mostly in Treasury Inflation Protected Securities.
When advisors were asked how they've changed, most said they have shortened the
duration on their
bond holdings, while swapping out some
bond funds in favor of floating - rate funds and preferred securities in the financial sector.
«Many of my clients who are in or approaching retirement have a 60 percent stock and 40 percent
bond allocation, with an emphasis
on dividend - producing stocks and
bonds that have a
duration of less than six years.»
While this can be true depending
on the
duration of
bonds owned and / or for nominal returns over an extended period of time, it is
They evaluate factor portfolio performance based
on excess return of constituent corporate
bonds versus
duration - matched U.S. Treasuries (thereby focusing
on the default premium component of corporate
bond returns).
Strategic Total Return continues to carry a
duration of about 3 years in Treasury securities (meaning a 100 basis point move in interest rates would be expected to impact Fund value by about 3 %
on the basis of
bond price fluctuations), with about 10 % of assets in precious metals shares, and about 5 % of assets in utility shares.
Interest rate sensitivity, also known as
duration, is based
on the Barclays U.S. Credit
Bond Index (all maturities), and short - term
bonds represented by the subset of
bonds within the index with maturities of 1 - 5 years (Barclays 1 - 5 Year U.S. Credit
Bond Index).
On Monday, Vanguard launched the Vanguard Extended
Duration Treasury ETF (AMEX: EDV), which tracks the Lehman Brothers Treasury STRIPS 20 - 30 Year Equal Par
Bond Index.
Bond found that helium proved a suitable replacement
on long -
duration dives.
That same leverage aversion exists among fixed income investors — longer
duration bonds may be over-priced
on a risk - adjusted basis compared to similar
bonds of a shorter maturity (Barclays).
As a result, the impact of interest rate fluctuations
on strip
bonds, known as the
bond duration, is higher than the impact
on periodic coupon - paying
bonds.
There is a change going
on here, and as for my balanced mandates, I think it means that I toss out my long
bonds [TLT] for a small loss, and keep my
duration short.
For example, if short - term rates were to rise 1 %, you would lose about 2 %
on a short - term
bond fund (assuming a 2 year
duration), and your total return over 1 year would be about 0 % (2 % interest minus 2 % decrease in value).
Since longer - term interest rates are considered more representative of real estate financing costs, we compared how REITs with different lease
durations performed in periods of increasing 10 - year U.S. Treasury
Bond yields, based
on month - end data.
On Tuesday, in response to evidence of accelerating yield pressures, as well the recognition that QE2 was much further along than investors widely seem to believe, we substantially cut our
bond duration to about 1.5 years in Strategic Total Return.
Some funds focus
on bonds with longer
durations and others focus
on those with shorter terms.
Moving
on to non-traditional
bond funds, this type of alternative asset class invests in debt holdings but seeks to hedge
duration and / or credit risk.
Strategic Dividend Value is hedged at about half the value of its stock holdings, and Strategic Total Return continues to hold a
duration of just over 3.5 years (meaning that a 100 basis point move in interest rates would be expected to impact Fund value by about 3.5 %
on the basis of
bond price fluctuations), with less than 10 % of assets in precious metals shares, and about 5 % of assets in utility shares.
Given that shorter
duration bonds hold up better when interest rates rise and benefit from the increase faster, they make a great choice for investors looking to cash in
on the Fed's decision.
On that basis, I'd bought XSB (a short - term
bond index, average
duration of about 2.9 years).
In addition to the credit worthiness of the issuer, the price of a
bond on the secondary market is determined by several factors including the interest it pays, its face value and its
duration or how long it is until it matures and the issuer repays the amount borrowed.
Investment adviser Kelly Gares of BlueShore Financial in West Vancouver, B.C., says one way to mitigate the risk of rising interest rates
on bonds is to hold
bonds that are close to their maturity date or ones with a short
duration.
Rates
on loans typically reset every 90 days, implying a
duration of 0.25 versus a current effective
duration of 4.18
on the S&P U.S High Yield Corporate
Bond Index.