I think its safe to say (broadly speaking) that modelled climate change,
on centennial timescales, can only occur witth a change of forcing.
The Earth's climate system includes chaotic elements that play an important role on some timescales, but are dominated by non-chaotic aspects of CO2 - mediated forcing
on centennial timescales.
On the centennial timescale, there was a +70 cm high level in the 16th and 17th centuries, a -50 cm low in the 18th century and a stability (with some oscillations) in the 19th, 20th and early 21st centuries.
Not exact matches
My interpretation of this is that you are saying that if we want to get an understanding of temperature trends
on centennial or millenial
timescales, we should wilfully ignore the higher - precision instrumental record in favour of the lower - precision proxies.
[Response: Despite the evidence for rapid regional climate changes during certain past transitional periods (e.g. the Younger Dryas), there is no evidence that global mean temperature changes of the amplitude seen in the past century have occured
on centennial or shorter
timescales in the past.
Muir L., and A. V. Fedorov, 2014: How the AMOC affects ocean temperatures
on decadal to
centennial timescales: the North Atlantic versus an interhemispheric seesaw.
Of the ones you mention, CO2 is currently the biggest
on multidecadal to
centennial timescales.
Superimposed
on this trend are apparent dry — wet oscillations at
centennial to millennial
timescales most likely in response to solar activity.»
-- Hewitt et al., 2016 http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.8388H «Many northern hemisphere climate records, particularly those from around the North Atlantic, show a series of rapid climate changes that recurred
on centennial to millennial
timescales throughout most of the last glacial period.
... this is a process
on decadal and
centennial timescale... < > temperatures increased for 300 years since the LIA (17.
After all, the sun's variability appears to track rather closely with climate
on millennial,
centennial, and decadal
timescales.
this is a process
on decadal and
centennial timescale.....
Explore the mechanisms associated with AMOC variability
on centennial - to - millennial
timescales, and evaluate the realism of GCMs
on these
timescales relative to available paleo proxy data, perhaps using proxy - enabled coupled climate models.
Proxy - based indicators of past climate change show that current global climate models systematically underestimate Holocene - epoch climate variability
on centennial to multi-millennial
timescales, with the mismatch increasing for longer periods1, 2,3,4,5.
Panel c shows the difference
on multi-decadal (dark grey) and
centennial (light grey)
timescales between the two reconstructions (expressed as an in - between fill of the curves), with the «multi-proxy» reconstruction showing
on average 0.2 °C lower temperature estimates
The late - twentieth century, however, is not exceptionally warm in the new record:
On decadal - to -
centennial timescales, periods around ad 750, 1000, 1400, and 1750 were equally warm, or warmer.