BBD If a book is written that uses models to forecast future conditions in the UK, but those same models have been demonstrated to not be able to even reasonably accurately predict future rainfall at any specific location, what good is the analysis in the book that describes different conditions based
on changes in rainfall?
In regions with little or no snowfall, changes in runoff are dependent much more
on changes in rainfall than on changes in temperature.
Not exact matches
«Human - induced climate
change likely increased Harvey's total
rainfall around Houston by at least 19 percent, with a best estimate of 37 percent,» Michael Wehner, a co-author
on an attribution study recently published
in Geophysical Research Letters, said at the American Geophysical Union conference
in December.
She uses this knowledge of plants, and specifically their leaf waxes, to document past
changes in plant life and
rainfall patterns, including studies
on the expansion of grasslands
in Africa and the revegetation of Antarctica during a prior warming event.
«The study demonstrates a robust century - scale link between ocean circulation
changes in the Atlantic basin and
rainfall in the adjacent continents during the past 4,000 years,» said UTIG Director Terry Quinn, a co-author
on the study.
The researchers found another subtlety
in the Amazon's response to
rainfall, which has led to new insights
on a question under debate: Are seasonal
changes in plant growth more limited by lack of sunlight or lack of water?
«If somebody deployed a sulfur layer
in the atmosphere, that could have catastrophic outcomes,» like
changing rainfall patterns over India that farmers rely
on, adds Caldeira, who also served
on the committee.
So if you think of going
in [a] warming direction of 2 degrees C compared to a cooling direction of 5 degrees C, one can say that we might be
changing the Earth, you know, like 40 percent of the kind of
change that went
on between the Ice Age; and now are going back
in time and so a 2 - degree
change, which is about 4 degrees F
on a global average, is going to be very significant
in terms of
change in the distribution of vegetation,
change in the kind of climate zones
in certain areas, wind patterns can
change, so where
rainfall happens is going to shift.
«My research focuses
on the way
in which patterns
change as annual
rainfall varies.
On the other hand, climate
change scenarios estimate that the soil loss rates may increase by 10 - 15 % by 2050 due to an analogous increase of
rainfall - induced erosion
in Europe.
So, a thirsty tree growing
in a tropical forest and one
in a temperate forest, such as those we find throughout Europe, will have largely the same response to drought and will inevitably suffer as a result of rising temperatures and
changes in rainfall patterns
on Earth.»
Dr Stephen Grimes of Plymouth University, who initiated the research project, highlighted the climate
changes that must have caused this increase
in sediment erosion and transport — «We have climate model simulations of the effect of warming
on rainfall during the PETM event, and they show some
changes in the average amounts of
rainfall, but the largest
change is how this
rainfall is packaged up — it's concentrated
in more rapid, extreme events — larger and bigger storms.»
Predicting the impact of climate
change on ecological communities is tricky, but predicting the impact of El Niño, the cyclical warming
in the Pacific Ocean that affects temperature and
rainfall around the globe, is even trickier.
However, shifts
in the average climate of the tropical oceans could
change the relative amounts of expansion
in these two adjoining oceans, and ultimately modulate the long - term
change in the IPWP impact
on regional
rainfall amounts.
Since trends
in convective
rainfall are not easily detected
in daily
rainfall records, or well - simulated by global or regional climate models, the researchers created a new tool to assess the effects of climate
change on rainfall patterns and trends
in dryland areas.
In fact, temperature change offered a better prediction of impending conflict in the 40 countries surveyed than even changes in rainfall, despite the fact that agriculture in this region is largely dependent on such precipitatio
In fact, temperature
change offered a better prediction of impending conflict
in the 40 countries surveyed than even changes in rainfall, despite the fact that agriculture in this region is largely dependent on such precipitatio
in the 40 countries surveyed than even
changes in rainfall, despite the fact that agriculture in this region is largely dependent on such precipitatio
in rainfall, despite the fact that agriculture
in this region is largely dependent on such precipitatio
in this region is largely dependent
on such precipitation.
What we call the weather is a highly detailed mix of events that happen
in a particular locality
on any particular day —
rainfall, temperature, humidity and so
on — and its development can vary wildly with small
changes in a few of these variables.
And lastly, although the models get the precipitation trends spot -
on, they «significantly underestimate the magnitude of
change [
in rainfall],» Hegerl admits, explaining that better modeling is near the top of the agenda for the researchers.
El Niño — a warming of tropical Pacific Ocean waters that
changes weather patterns across the globe — causes forests to dry out as
rainfall patterns shift, and the occasional unusually strong «super» El Niños, like the current one, have a bigger effect
on CO2 levels
in the atmosphere.
«Adaptation to urban - induced climate
change depends
on specific geographic factors,» Georgescu adds, noting that white, reflective cool roofs work well
in California, but could reduce
rainfall from Florida up the U.S. east coast, for example.
Scientists at the University of Sydney have analysed up to 22 years of long - term monitoring data
on plants and animals
in central Australia to project how
changing rainfall and wildfire patterns, because of climate
change, will influence desert wildlife.
Under the Obama administration, climate
change has been
on the Department of Defense's radar from how it affects national security to how military installations around the world should prepare for climate impacts, like sea level rise at naval bases, melting permafrost
in the Arctic and more extreme
rainfall events around the world.
Wet tropical forests, like this one
on the Osa Peninsula
in southwestern Costa Rica, are among the most productive ecosystems
on earth, and new research points to the importance of both temperature and
rainfall on future plant growth as the climate
changes.
«Central Pacific temperature
changes have a remote effect
on rainfall in California and Australia.
In the article, «The Natural and Social History of the Indigenous Lands and Protected Areas Corridor of the Xingu River Basin,» the authors cite original interviews with indigenous leaders who note significant changes in the forest's rainfall patterns, river levels, fires and agriculture cycles their groups have relied on for thousands of year
In the article, «The Natural and Social History of the Indigenous Lands and Protected Areas Corridor of the Xingu River Basin,» the authors cite original interviews with indigenous leaders who note significant
changes in the forest's rainfall patterns, river levels, fires and agriculture cycles their groups have relied on for thousands of year
in the forest's
rainfall patterns, river levels, fires and agriculture cycles their groups have relied
on for thousands of years.
My research indicates that the Siberian peat moss, Arctic tundra, and methal hydrates (frozen methane at the bottom of the ocean) all have an excellent chance of melting and releasing their stored co2.Recent methane concentration figures also hit the news last week, and methane has increased after a long time being steady.The forests of north america are drying out and are very susceptible to massive insect infestations and wildfires, and the massive die offs - 25 % of total forests, have begun.And, the most recent stories
on the Amazon forecast that with the
change in rainfall patterns one third of the Amazon will dry and turn to grassland, thereby creating a domino cascade effect for the rest of the Amazon.With co2 levels risng faster now that the oceans have reached carrying capacity, the oceans having become also more acidic, and the looming threat of a North Atlanic current shutdown (note the recent terrible news
on salinity upwelling levels off Greenland,) and the
change in cold water upwellings, leading to far less biomass for the fish to feed upon, all lead to the conclusion we may not have to worry about NASA completing its inventory of near earth objects greater than 140 meters across by 2026 (Recent Benjamin Dean astronomy lecture here
in San Francisco).
Maize and wheat production
in Ethiopia depends
on rainfall, making the unpredictable weather patterns caused by climate
change exceptionally detrimental here.
The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have all been found to significantly influence
changes in surface air temperature and
rainfall (climate)
on decadal and multi-decadal scales, and these natural ocean oscillations have been robustly connected to
changes in solar activity.
For significant periods of time, the reconstructed large - scale
changes in the North Pacific SLP field described here and by construction the long - term decline
in Hawaiian winter
rainfall are broadly consistent with long - term
changes in tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) based
on ENSO reconstructions documented
in several other studies, particularly over the last two centuries.
According to the most recent Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate
Change report, the wind speed and
rainfall rates
in tropical cyclones are projected to increase during the 21st century, even while the total number of tropical cyclones remains nearly steady, or even decreases.
In 2014, Climate Central helped create the World Weather Attribution (WWA) initiative, a groundbreaking international effort to analyze and communicate the possible influence of climate
change on extreme weather events such as storms, extreme
rainfall, heat waves, cold spells, and droughts.
«
Changing weather patterns are already having an impact [
on flooding],» says the report, referencing the heavy
rainfall over the 2015 - 6 winter and the succession of storms — Desmond, Eva and Frank — that caused flooding
in northern parts of the UK.
Pilot study focusing
on a region vulnerable to climate
change Although the study highlights that long term
changes in rainfall intensity are not always» man - made,» it does not necessarily mean that today's weather anomalies across the Indian Ocean rim countries and,
in particular, their frequency, are not subject to human influence.
Since the forex market is dependent
on the currency prices, smallest instances like
rainfall to natural catastrophe, from little political turbulence to
change of governments, all while leaving an effect
on the currency rates can also make it the most unpredictable market
in the world.
Storms, snowmelt, and general seasonal
changes in rainfall have a very noticeable and rapid effect
on karst springs.
On the other hand massive
changes in land use will certainly impact regional climates and regional
rainfall.
While there may be long term
changes in rainfall, blaming it
on global warming is premature, especially since long term drought happened
in the west well before the industrial age.
Although there is still some disagreement
in the preliminary results (eg the description of polar ice caps), a lot of things appear to be quite robust as the climate models for instance indicate consistent patterns of surface warming and
rainfall trends: the models tend to agree
on a stronger warming
in the Arctic and stronger precipitation
changes in the Topics (see crude examples for the SRES A1b scenarios given
in Figures 1 & 2; Note, the degrees of freedom varies with latitude, so that the uncertainty of these estimates are greater near the poles).
Changes in land surface properties as the wet season progresses impact surface fluxes and boundary layer evolution
on daily and seasonal time scales that feed back to cloud and
rainfall generation.
In summer and autumn the CSIRO projections were for smaller decreases in rainfall than in winter and spring, but the observed change was a substantial decrease: in fact, as large a decrease between the successive 11 - year periods as CSIRO projected on the high global warming scenario over the 40 - year period from 1990 to 203
In summer and autumn the CSIRO projections were for smaller decreases
in rainfall than in winter and spring, but the observed change was a substantial decrease: in fact, as large a decrease between the successive 11 - year periods as CSIRO projected on the high global warming scenario over the 40 - year period from 1990 to 203
in rainfall than
in winter and spring, but the observed change was a substantial decrease: in fact, as large a decrease between the successive 11 - year periods as CSIRO projected on the high global warming scenario over the 40 - year period from 1990 to 203
in winter and spring, but the observed
change was a substantial decrease:
in fact, as large a decrease between the successive 11 - year periods as CSIRO projected on the high global warming scenario over the 40 - year period from 1990 to 203
in fact, as large a decrease between the successive 11 - year periods as CSIRO projected
on the high global warming scenario over the 40 - year period from 1990 to 2030.
Of course, as they point out «because
rainfall is such a variable element, trend values are highly dependent
on the start and end dates of the analysis» and the fact they are simply using linear interpolation it is very difficult to derive anything meaningful
in terms of climate
change from just one map.
These differences between projected and observed trends
in rainfall seem to raise serious questions about the ability of the models to predict
changes in rainfall — though Iâ $ ™ d be interested
in CSIRO views, especially
on whether it is appropriate to use successive 11 - year averages as measures of outcome and, if it is not, how the relationship between projections and outcome should be monitored.
In fact, this is a similar argument to the one I made on the Browning Australia thread: if by omission of one data «point» — one proxy in this case, one year's rainfall in the Browning Australia thread — you drastically change the conclusion, then your method can not be robus
In fact, this is a similar argument to the one I made
on the Browning Australia thread: if by omission of one data «point» — one proxy
in this case, one year's rainfall in the Browning Australia thread — you drastically change the conclusion, then your method can not be robus
in this case, one year's
rainfall in the Browning Australia thread — you drastically change the conclusion, then your method can not be robus
in the Browning Australia thread — you drastically
change the conclusion, then your method can not be robust.
Could they produce sets of weather - maps that if somehow integrated over 30 years could produce a «supermap» showing actual climate
change in terms of e.g average windspeeds,
rainfall, cloud - cover, pressure and so
on?
Clear decrease
in average
rainfall over Central America as a consequence of 21st century climate
change, depending
on the height of cumulative greenhouse gas emissions.
, lightning related insurance claims, Lyme disease, Malaria, malnutrition, Maple syrup shortage, marine diseases, marine food chain decimated, Meaching (end of the world), megacryometeors, Melanoma, methane burps, melting permafrost, migration, microbes to decompose soil carbon more rapidly, more bad air days, more research needed, mountains break up, mudslides, next ice age, Nile delta damaged, no effect
in India, nuclear plants bloom, ocean acidification, outdoor hockey threatened, oyster diseases, ozone loss, ozone repair slowed, ozone rise, pests increase, plankton blooms, plankton loss, plant viruses, polar tours scrapped, psychosocial disturbances, railroad tracks deformed,
rainfall increase,
rainfall reduction, refugees, release of ancient frozen viruses, resorts disappear, rift
on Capitol Hill, rivers raised, rivers dry up, rockfalls, rocky peaks crack apart, Ross river disease, salinity reduction, Salmonella, sea level rise, sex
change, ski resorts threatened, smog, snowfall increase, snowfall reduction, societal collapse, songbirds
change eating habits, sour grapes, spiders invade Scotland, squid population explosion, spectacular orchids, tectonic plate movement, ticks move northward (Sweden), tides rise, tree beetle attacks, tree foliage increase (UK), tree growth slowed, trees less colourful, trees more colourful, tropics expansion, tsunamis, Venice flooded, volcanic eruptions, walrus pups orphaned, wars over water, water bills double, water supply unreliability, water scarcity (20 % of increase), weeds, West Nile fever, whales move north, wheat yields crushed
in Australia, white Christmas dream ends, wildfires, wine — harm to Australian industry, wine industry damage (California), wine industry disaster (US), wine — more English, wine — no more French, wind shift, winters
in Britain colder, wolves eat more moose, wolves eat less, workers laid off, World bankruptcy, World
in crisis, Yellow fever.
So, a thirsty tree growing
in a tropical forest and one
in a temperate forest, such as those we find throughout Europe, will have largely the same response to drought and will inevitably suffer as a result of rising temperatures and
changes in rainfall patterns
on Earth.
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