Not exact matches
Of course, while short - term
changes in sea level can be predicted fairly accurately based
on the motions of the moon and sun, it is a lot harder predicting the ups and downs of the average global
surface temperature — there is a lot of noise, or natural variation,
in the system.
The first image, based
on data from January 1997 when El Nio was still strengthening shows a
sea level rise along the Equator
in the eastern Pacific Ocean of up to 34 centimeters with the red colors indicating an associated
change in sea surface temperature of up to 5.4 degrees C.
The most important bias globally was the modification
in measured
sea surface temperatures associated with the
change from ships throwing a bucket over the side, bringing some ocean water
on deck, and putting a thermometer
in it, to reading the thermometer
in the engine coolant water intake.
Here, we report
on local and global
changes in MHW characteristics over time as recorded by satellite and
in situ measurements of
sea surface temperature (SST) and defined using a quantitative MHW framework, which allows for comparisons across regions and events1.
Long - term (decadal and multi-decadal) variation
in total annual streamflow is largely influenced by quasi-cyclic
changes in sea -
surface temperatures and resulting climate conditions; the influence of climate warming
on these patterns is uncertain.
Hi Andrew, Paper you may have, but couldn't find
on «The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global
temperature» CO2 lagging temp
change, which really turns the entire AGW argument
on its head: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818112001658 Highlights: ►
Changes in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging 11 — 12 months behind changes in global sea surface temperature ► Changes in atmospheric CO2 are not tracking changes in human emi
Changes in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging 11 — 12 months behind
changes in global sea surface temperature ► Changes in atmospheric CO2 are not tracking changes in human emi
changes in global
sea surface temperature ►
Changes in atmospheric CO2 are not tracking changes in human emi
Changes in atmospheric CO2 are not tracking
changes in human emi
changes in human emissions.
For significant periods of time, the reconstructed large - scale
changes in the North Pacific SLP field described here and by construction the long - term decline
in Hawaiian winter rainfall are broadly consistent with long - term
changes in tropical Pacific
sea surface temperature (SST) based
on ENSO reconstructions documented
in several other studies, particularly over the last two centuries.
This seems to be associated with particular patterns of
change in sea surface temperature in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, a teleconnection which is well - captured
in climate models
on seasonal timescales.
On Wednesday an interesting paper (Thompson et al) was published
in Nature, pointing to a clear artifact
in the
sea surface temperatures in 1945 and associating it with the
changing mix of fleets and measurement techniques at the end of World War II.
I think the evidence is emerging that quite small
changes in sea surface temperatures have huge effects
on hurricanes and these events.
Is the record detailed enough to understand 3 - dimensional
changes in sea temperature or is it mostly based
on sea surface altimetry?
But it does say; «Natural climate variations, which tend to involve localized
changes in sea surface temperature, may have a larger effect
on hurricane activity than the more uniform patterns of global warming...»
Until you can all agree
on whether
changes in soil moisture are due to lower solar, or due to higher CO2, use solely
sea surface temperatures for global mean
surface T
change.
In 2014 climate scientists published a peer - reviewed paper (Johnstone 2014) suggesting that climate change along the coast of North America could be best explained by natural cycles of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) due to its affects on sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacifi
In 2014 climate scientists published a peer - reviewed paper (Johnstone 2014) suggesting that climate
change along the coast of North America could be best explained by natural cycles of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) due to its affects
on sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacifi
in the eastern Pacific.
The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is a naturally occurring pattern of
sea surface temperature change that is seen
in the North Atlantic Ocean
on decadal timescales and affects weather and climate.
What we know with some certainty about oceans (if data is to be believed) is that the intra-annual
change in the insolation effects (suspiciously) high symmetricity
in the N. Atlantic's
sea surface temperature, cantered
on 1st of March and 31st of August.
The
changes in sea -
surface temperatures are consistent with the impact of the annular modes
on the
surface fluxes of latent and sensible heat, and also
on the flux of heat by the anomalous Ekman flow.
How hurricanes develop also depends
on how the local atmosphere responds to
changes in local
sea surface temperatures, and this atmospheric response depends critically
on the cause of the
change.23, 24 For example, the atmosphere responds differently when local
sea surface temperatures increase due to a local decrease of particulate pollution that allows more sunlight through to warm the ocean, versus when
sea surface temperatures increase more uniformly around the world due to increased amounts of human - caused heat - trapping gases.25, 26,27,28
Change in El Nino intensity (As El Nino intensity is
in part based
on sea surface temperatures, rising
temperatures will cause more intense El Ninos causing flooding, droughts, wild fires and famines.
Pokrovsky predicts a further acceleration of melting of the thin ice and
in general greater ice loss compared to his June prediction; this
change is based
on the increase
in the
sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies
in the North Atlantic and the presence of hot air masses over Siberia and the Russian Arctic.
«The authors write that «the notorious tropical bias problem
in climate simulations of global coupled general circulation models manifests itself particularly strongly
in the tropical Atlantic,»... they state that «the climate bias problem is still so severe that one of the most basic features of the equatorial Atlantic Ocean — the eastward shoaling thermocline — can not be reproduced by most of the IPCC assessment report models,... as they describe it, «show that the bias
in the eastern equatorial Atlantic has a major effect
on sea -
surface temperature (SST) response to a rapid
change in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).»
My earliest research was
on orbital - scale
changes in North Atlantic sediments to reconstruct past
sea -
surface temperatures and to quantify the deposition of ice - rafted debris.
The air responds to a
change in it's own resistor efficiency by
changing it's own circulation patterns to again meet the requirement that the
surface air
temperature and the
sea surface temperature be the same
on average globally.
Concerning decadal
changing trends of CO2 content
in atmosphere I have expressed that they are caused by
changing temperatures of
sea surface water
on the seasurface areas where seasurface CO2 sinks are.
280 Though I can not find any literature
on equatorial warming triggering reorganization for the D - O events, there are reports, for the glacial - interglacial transition, that Pacific
sea surface temperatures warmed 3,000 years before
changes in ice volumes.
How hurricanes develop also depends
on how the local atmosphere responds to
changes in local
sea surface temperatures, and this atmospheric response depends critically
on the cause of the
change.23, 24 For example, the atmosphere responds differently when local
sea surface temperatures increase due to a local decrease of particulate pollution that allows more sunlight through to warm the ocean, versus when
sea surface temperatures increase more uniformly around the world due to increased amounts of human - caused heat - trapping gases.18, 25,26,27 So the link between hurricanes and ocean
temperatures is complex.
Elsewhere
on this site there is a graph of overall ocean heat content which is building indicating that while the sst is decreasing slightly the overall ocean is warming, It is likely that this overall ocean warming which has nothing to do with
changes to the atmospheric
temperature because it is the
sea surface and not the deep ocean that is
in contact with the atmosphere is what is resulting
in the overall rise
in atmospheric CO2 concentration which is currenly increasing at 2ppmv / year.
In his House of Commons presentation, toward the end, he gives a sketch of an alternative derivation of the «Climate Sensitivity» based on observed rates of evaporation increase per change in sea surface temperature, and this based on data from the 2007 paper by Wentz e
In his House of Commons presentation, toward the end, he gives a sketch of an alternative derivation of the «Climate Sensitivity» based
on observed rates of evaporation increase per
change in sea surface temperature, and this based on data from the 2007 paper by Wentz e
in sea surface temperature, and this based
on data from the 2007 paper by Wentz et.
The most important bias globally was the modification
in measured
sea surface temperatures associated with the
change from ships throwing a bucket over the side, bringing some ocean water
on deck, and putting a thermometer
in it, to reading the thermometer
in the engine coolant water intake.
That's exactly what was done
in a new paper by Kosaka and Xie (2013, Nature, doi: 10.1038 / nature12534) which investigates the impact of the tropical Pacific
sea surface temperature on global
temperature change.
Watching the current hurricane coverage (family
in Fla / Ga / NC) I see no mention of
sea surface temperature, no graphics of how it's
changing as the hurricane tracks across it, nothing about the second hurricane coming
on soon.
Since the scaling factor used is based purely
on simulations by CMIP5 models, rather than
on observations, the estimate is only valid if those simulations realistically reproduce the spatiotemporal pattern of actual warming for both SST and near -
surface air
temperature (tas), and
changes in sea - ice cover.
However, a confident assessment of human influence
on hurricanes will require further studies using models and observations, with emphasis
on distinguishing natural from human - induced
changes in hurricane activity through their influence
on factors such as historical
sea surface temperatures, wind shear, and atmospheric vertical stability.
Doing this
on a year - to - year basis shows NO apparent correlation with the absolute «globally and annually averaged land and
sea surface temperature anomaly» (i.e. HadCRUT3), but does show a weak correlation with the
CHANGE in temperature from the previous year, for example:
Based
on the understanding of both the physical processes that control key climate feedbacks (see Section 8.6.3), and also the origin of inter-model differences
in the simulation of feedbacks (see Section 8.6.2), the following climate characteristics appear to be particularly important: (i) for the water vapour and lapse rate feedbacks, the response of upper - tropospheric RH and lapse rate to interannual or decadal
changes in climate; (ii) for cloud feedbacks, the response of boundary - layer clouds and anvil clouds to a
change in surface or atmospheric conditions and the
change in cloud radiative properties associated with a
change in extratropical synoptic weather systems; (iii) for snow albedo feedbacks, the relationship between
surface air
temperature and snow melt over northern land areas during spring and (iv) for
sea ice feedbacks, the simulation of
sea ice thickness.
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-- The periodic
change in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, known as ENSO, has an impact
on temperatures and precipitation
in the neighbouring contents and across the globe.
Hi Andrew, Paper you may have, but couldn't find
on «The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global
temperature» CO2 lagging temp
change, which really turns the entire AGW argument
on its head: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818112001658 Highlights: ►
Changes in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging 11 — 12 months behind changes in global sea surface temperature ► Changes in atmospheric CO2 are not tracking changes in human emi
Changes in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging 11 — 12 months behind
changes in global sea surface temperature ► Changes in atmospheric CO2 are not tracking changes in human emi
changes in global
sea surface temperature ►
Changes in atmospheric CO2 are not tracking changes in human emi
Changes in atmospheric CO2 are not tracking
changes in human emi
changes in human emissions.
Ho added that the enhanced intensification of tropical cyclones over East Asian coastal
seas caused by
changes in sea surface temperature and wind flows mean that «an individual tropical cyclone could strike East Asia, including the Philippines, with a record - breaking power, for example Haiyan, even though landfall intensity in south - east Asia has not notably changed on average in recent years because of the shifted genesis location; note that Haiyan formed over the eastern Philippine Sea far from land.&raq
sea surface temperature and wind flows mean that «an individual tropical cyclone could strike East Asia, including the Philippines, with a record - breaking power, for example Haiyan, even though landfall intensity
in south - east Asia has not notably
changed on average
in recent years because of the shifted genesis location; note that Haiyan formed over the eastern Philippine
Sea far from land.&raq
Sea far from land.»