Sentences with phrase «on climate model forecasts»

If weather forecasts are so changeable, we certainly can't rely on climate model forecasts.

Not exact matches

On a basic level, global climate models are similar to today's weather forecasting tools, explains Jerry Meehl, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, and a leading climate modeler.

One area of rapid growth — and a good illustration of the current trends — is the increased focus on developing geographically precise climate models that can forecast conditions one to several years out.

Bolstered by the success of their retrospective analysis the scientists forecast caribou habitat to the year 2080 using a «business - as - usual» climate model — the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's A1Bclimate model — the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's A1BClimate Change's A1B model.

Dr Dudok de Wit's team at the International Space Science Institute in Bern, and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, have been using the datasets identified through the network to describe the Sun's influence on climate from 1850 up to the present day, as well as a forecast up to the year 2300.

The biggest concern: that the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) project, meant to forecast local impacts of climate change and to be used on DOE's future exascale supercomputers, would dilute resources from the Community Earth System Model Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) project, meant to forecast local impacts of climate change and to be used on DOE's future exascale supercomputers, would dilute resources from the Community Earth System Model climate change and to be used on DOE's future exascale supercomputers, would dilute resources from the Community Earth System Model (CESM).

The researchers» forecasts are based on the AWI's BRIOS (Bremerhaven Regional Ice - Ocean Simulations) model, a coupled ice - ocean model that the team forced with atmospheric data from the SRES - A1B climate scenario, created at Britain's Met Office Hadley Centre in Exeter.

International institutions such as CGIAR have developed computer models that use data on climate, crop types, and other factors to estimate current food production and forecast future trends.

Those numbers caused a stir, because they were substantially higher than HFC warming forecasts made by other climate models, including those underpinning the massive reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models, including those underpinning the massive reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate Change (IPCC).

Such offices shall engage in cooperative research, development, and demonstration projects with the academic community, State Climate Offices, Regional Climate Offices, and other users and stakeholders on climate products, technologies, models, and other tools to improve understanding and forecasting of regional and local climate variability and change and the effects on economic activities, natural resources, and water availability, and other effects on communities, to facilitate development of regional and local adaptation plans to respond to climate variability and change, and any other needed research identified by the Under Secretary or the Advisory ComClimate Offices, Regional Climate Offices, and other users and stakeholders on climate products, technologies, models, and other tools to improve understanding and forecasting of regional and local climate variability and change and the effects on economic activities, natural resources, and water availability, and other effects on communities, to facilitate development of regional and local adaptation plans to respond to climate variability and change, and any other needed research identified by the Under Secretary or the Advisory ComClimate Offices, and other users and stakeholders on climate products, technologies, models, and other tools to improve understanding and forecasting of regional and local climate variability and change and the effects on economic activities, natural resources, and water availability, and other effects on communities, to facilitate development of regional and local adaptation plans to respond to climate variability and change, and any other needed research identified by the Under Secretary or the Advisory Comclimate products, technologies, models, and other tools to improve understanding and forecasting of regional and local climate variability and change and the effects on economic activities, natural resources, and water availability, and other effects on communities, to facilitate development of regional and local adaptation plans to respond to climate variability and change, and any other needed research identified by the Under Secretary or the Advisory Comclimate variability and change and the effects on economic activities, natural resources, and water availability, and other effects on communities, to facilitate development of regional and local adaptation plans to respond to climate variability and change, and any other needed research identified by the Under Secretary or the Advisory Comclimate variability and change, and any other needed research identified by the Under Secretary or the Advisory Committee.

In summary the projections of the IPCC — Met office models and all the impact studies (especially the Stern report) which derive from them are based on specifically structurally flawed and inherently useless models.They deserve no place in any serious discussion of future climate trends and represent an enormous waste of time and money.As a basis for public policy their forecasts are grossly in error and therefore worse than useless.For further discussion and an estimate of the coming cooling see http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com

This five - year forecast isn't like the ones that appear on the evening news, rather, it is a research effort aimed at improving climate models.

The multi-scale aerosol - climate model, an extension of a multi-scale modeling framework, examined specific aerosol - cloud interactions and their effects on the Earth's energy budget, one of the toughest climate forecasting problems.

For example, a climate model can tell you it will be cold in winter, but it can't tell you what the temperature will be on a specific day — that's weather forecasting.

[emphasis added] Bast: «We believe that climate has warmed in the second half of the 20th Century, we believe that there is probably a measurable human impact on climate but it's probably very small, we think that natural forces probably overwhelm any impact that human activity can have, that computer models are too unreliable to forecast what the future might hold for climate and finally that a modest amount of warming is probably going to be, on net, beneficial both to human beings and the ecosystem.

A few climate models have been tested for (and shown) capability in initial value predictions, on time scales from weather forecasting (a few days) to seasonal forecasting (annual).

Climate models are being subjected to more comprehensive tests, including, for example, evaluations of forecasts on time scales from days to a year.

Bolstered by the success of their retrospective analysis, the scientists forecasted caribou habitat to the year 2080 using a «business - as - usual» climate model: the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's A1Bclimate model: the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's A1BClimate Change's A1B model.

And as this knowledge is disseminated and better understood, eventually we'll have better models, and can achieve more widespread adoption of them - if the solar / cosmic ray / cloud mechanism is significant it could explain why temperatures in neither hemisphere are proceeding upwards lock - step with IPCC forecasts - and opening the door for a more accurate and widespread acknowledgement of CO2 effects on temperature and climate.

This is quite subtle though — weather forecast models obviously do better if they have initial conditions that are closer to the observations, and one might argue that for particular climate model predictions that are strongly dependent on the base climatology (such as for Arctic sea ice) tuning to the climatology will be worthwhile.

There are uncertainties in parts of the general circulation models used to forecast future climate, but thousands of scientists have made meticulous efforts to make sure that the processes are based on observations of basic physics, laboratory measurements, and sound theoretical calculations.

This kind of forecast doesn't depend too much on the models at all — it is mainly related to the climate sensitivity which can be constrained independently of the models (i.e. via paleo - climate data), moderated by the thermal inertia of the oceans and assuming the (very likely) continuation of CO2 emissions at present or accelerated rates.

All of the models ca 2007 that the IPCC used to forecast climate change predicted a steady increase in temperature (based, as they were, on the assumption that CO2 is the primary driver of temperature) and yet global temperatures have remained essentially flat since then.

Because there is considerable misunderstanding about global warming and the ability to forecast it, and because casting doubt about global warming was central to the arguments of Armstrong and his coauthors, we provide a tutorial on global warming and how it is incorporated into climate models.

I believe that I was harassed by my supervisor and others in NWS for over a year after the suspension, related to my concerns on climate and hydrologic change as that can affect hydrologic modeling which NWS river forecast centers uses for flood and water supply forecasting.

To learn about the limits on regional and short - term climate forecasting, watch climatologist Gavin Schmidt's presentation, «What Are Climate Models Good For?climate forecasting, watch climatologist Gavin Schmidt's presentation, «What Are Climate Models Good For?Climate Models Good For?»

-- Kerry Emanuel, who has been studying hurricanes and climate change for decades, has a great page on his Web site at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology consolidating the many competing computer model runs aiming to forecast the strength and track of tropical storms.

Climate research is a slow, methodical business whether based on collection and evaluation of historical data sets or the development, evaluation and forecast use of better climate Climate research is a slow, methodical business whether based on collection and evaluation of historical data sets or the development, evaluation and forecast use of better climate climate models.

About 1980ish, some old ideas like the greenhouse effect were brought out of mothballs and re-examined with new tools and techniques; simultaneously several researchers and theoreticians released their notes, published, or otherwise got together and there was a surprising consilience and not a small amount of mixing with old school hippy ecologism on some of the topics that became the roots of Climate Change science (before it was called Global Warming); innovations in mathematics were also applied to climate thought; supercomputers (though «disappointing» on weather forecasting) allowed demonstration of plausibility of runaway climate effects, comparison of scales of effects, and the possibility of climate models combined with a good understanding of the limits of predictive power of weather Climate Change science (before it was called Global Warming); innovations in mathematics were also applied to climate thought; supercomputers (though «disappointing» on weather forecasting) allowed demonstration of plausibility of runaway climate effects, comparison of scales of effects, and the possibility of climate models combined with a good understanding of the limits of predictive power of weather climate thought; supercomputers (though «disappointing» on weather forecasting) allowed demonstration of plausibility of runaway climate effects, comparison of scales of effects, and the possibility of climate models combined with a good understanding of the limits of predictive power of weather climate effects, comparison of scales of effects, and the possibility of climate models combined with a good understanding of the limits of predictive power of weather climate models combined with a good understanding of the limits of predictive power of weather models.

Even in «low emission» climate scenarios (forecasts that are based on the assumption that future carbon dioxide emissions will increase relatively slowly), models predict precipitation may decline by 20 - 25 percent over most of California, southern Nevada, and Arizona by the end of this century.

This capability would enable a model to continuously update and improve parameterization approaches on the fly, with the potential to improve climate predictions and short - term weather forecasts.

«When initialized with states close to the observations, models «drift» towards their imperfect climatology (an estimate of the mean climate), leading to biases in the simulations that depend on the forecast time.

Requires the Secretary of the Interior to establish the National Climate Change Wildlife Science Center within USGS to: (1) assess current physical and biological knowledge and prioritize scientific gaps in such knowledge to forecast the ecological impacts of climate change on fish and wildlife at the ecosystem, habitat, community, population, and species levels; (2) develop and improve tools to identify, evaluate, and link scientific approaches and models for forecasting impacts of climate change; (3) develop and evaluate tools to adaptively manage and monitor climate change impacts; and (4) develop capacities for sharing sucClimate Change Wildlife Science Center within USGS to: (1) assess current physical and biological knowledge and prioritize scientific gaps in such knowledge to forecast the ecological impacts of climate change on fish and wildlife at the ecosystem, habitat, community, population, and species levels; (2) develop and improve tools to identify, evaluate, and link scientific approaches and models for forecasting impacts of climate change; (3) develop and evaluate tools to adaptively manage and monitor climate change impacts; and (4) develop capacities for sharing succlimate change on fish and wildlife at the ecosystem, habitat, community, population, and species levels; (2) develop and improve tools to identify, evaluate, and link scientific approaches and models for forecasting impacts of climate change; (3) develop and evaluate tools to adaptively manage and monitor climate change impacts; and (4) develop capacities for sharing succlimate change; (3) develop and evaluate tools to adaptively manage and monitor climate change impacts; and (4) develop capacities for sharing succlimate change impacts; and (4) develop capacities for sharing such data.

Greg Smith works at Environment and Climate Change Canada on high - resolution ice - ocean modelling and forecasting.

There are much better arguments on other items where (C) AGW is on thin ice: climate models which fail on a lot of items like cloud cover, overestimate the influence of aerosols, can't cope with natural variability and therefore fail in their temperature forecasts.

Such offices shall engage in cooperative research, development, and demonstration projects with the academic community, State Climate Offices, Regional Climate Offices, and other users and stakeholders on climate products, technologies, models, and other tools to improve understanding and forecasting of regional and local climate variability and change and the effects on economic activities, natural resources, and water availability, and other effects on communities, to facilitate development of regional and local adaptation plans to respond to climate variability and change, and any other needed research identified by the Under Secretary or the Advisory ComClimate Offices, Regional Climate Offices, and other users and stakeholders on climate products, technologies, models, and other tools to improve understanding and forecasting of regional and local climate variability and change and the effects on economic activities, natural resources, and water availability, and other effects on communities, to facilitate development of regional and local adaptation plans to respond to climate variability and change, and any other needed research identified by the Under Secretary or the Advisory ComClimate Offices, and other users and stakeholders on climate products, technologies, models, and other tools to improve understanding and forecasting of regional and local climate variability and change and the effects on economic activities, natural resources, and water availability, and other effects on communities, to facilitate development of regional and local adaptation plans to respond to climate variability and change, and any other needed research identified by the Under Secretary or the Advisory Comclimate products, technologies, models, and other tools to improve understanding and forecasting of regional and local climate variability and change and the effects on economic activities, natural resources, and water availability, and other effects on communities, to facilitate development of regional and local adaptation plans to respond to climate variability and change, and any other needed research identified by the Under Secretary or the Advisory Comclimate variability and change and the effects on economic activities, natural resources, and water availability, and other effects on communities, to facilitate development of regional and local adaptation plans to respond to climate variability and change, and any other needed research identified by the Under Secretary or the Advisory Comclimate variability and change, and any other needed research identified by the Under Secretary or the Advisory Committee.

However, current forecast systems have limited ability on these timescales because models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface, as well as processes that can be difficult to represent realistically.

Model estimates of temperatures prior to 2005 are a «hindcast» using known past climate influences, while temperatures projected after 2005 are a «forecast» based on a estimate of how things might change.

By picking one specific area of only one of the spheres (surface temperatures), while it might be one piece of interesting information and it certainly it is quite true that surface temperatures have been flat at or near record high levels, focusing on this fact alone and the fact that climate models failed to have forecast it, does very little overall good if the goal is to educate the public about the bigger picture, i.e. anthropogenic climate change as an energy imbalance affecting the whole Earth energy system, including all the spheres discussed above.

Climate modelling has a different problem: based on forecast and projection, it is by definition an inexact science, but one upon which concrete decisions must be based if governments and societies are to assess risks and plan ahead.

For example, a climate model can tell you it will be cold in winter, but it can't tell you what the temperature will be on a specific day — that's weather forecasting.

Wang, 5.0 (± 0.27), Modeling A projected September Arctic sea ice extent of 5.0 million km2 is based on a NCEP ensemble mean CFSv2 forecast initialized from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) that assimilates observed sea ice concentrations and other atmospheric and oceanic observations.

Nic Is it not true that the harsh reality is that the output of the climate models which the IPCC rely's on on their dangerous global warming forecasts have no necessary connection to reality because of their structural inadequacies.

In our climate modeling project we were trying to combine different temperature forecasts on a scale in which Africa was represented by about 600 grid boxes.

Along the way, among other things, I developed a computer model of forests that in the 1990s we used to forecast the effects of climate on jack pine forests in Michigan that were the only habitat of the endangered Kirtland's warbler.

Fully coupled global climate model experiments are performed using the Community Climate System Model version 4.0 (CCSM4) for preindustrial, present, and future climate to study the effects of realistic land surface initializations on subseasonal to seasonal climate forclimate model experiments are performed using the Community Climate System Model version 4.0 (CCSM4) for preindustrial, present, and future climate to study the effects of realistic land surface initializations on subseasonal to seasonal climate forecmodel experiments are performed using the Community Climate System Model version 4.0 (CCSM4) for preindustrial, present, and future climate to study the effects of realistic land surface initializations on subseasonal to seasonal climate forClimate System Model version 4.0 (CCSM4) for preindustrial, present, and future climate to study the effects of realistic land surface initializations on subseasonal to seasonal climate forecModel version 4.0 (CCSM4) for preindustrial, present, and future climate to study the effects of realistic land surface initializations on subseasonal to seasonal climate forclimate to study the effects of realistic land surface initializations on subseasonal to seasonal climate forclimate forecasts.

CAS = Commission for Atmospheric Sciences CMDP = Climate Metrics and Diagnostic Panel CMIP = Coupled Model Intercomparison Project DAOS = Working Group on Data Assimilation and Observing Systems GASS = Global Atmospheric System Studies panel GEWEX = Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment GLASS = Global Land - Atmosphere System Studies panel GOV = Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE) Ocean View JWGFVR = Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research MJO - TF = Madden - Julian Oscillation Task Force PDEF = Working Group on Predictability, Dynamics and Ensemble Forecasting PPP = Polar Prediction Project QPF = Quantitative precipitation forecast S2S = Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project SPARC = Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate TC = Tropical cyclone WCRP = World Climate Research Programme WCRP Grand Science Challenges • Climate Extremes • Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity • Melting Ice and Global Consequences • Regional Sea - Ice Change and Coastal Impacts • Water Availability WCRP JSC = Joint Scientific Committee WGCM = Working Group on Coupled Modelling WGSIP = Working Group on Subseasonal to Interdecadal Prediction WWRP = World Weather Research Programme YOPP = Year of Polar Prediction

The 1,018 - page report convincingly and systematically challenges IPCC claims that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are causing «dangerous» global warming and climate change; that IPCC computer models can be relied on for alarming climate forecasts and scenarios; and that we need to take immediate, drastic action to prevent «unprecedented» climate and weather events that are no more frequent or unusual than what humans have had to adapt to and deal with for thousands of years.

The CCA and the whole Eco-facist UNFCCC circus depends on the general acceptance of the IPCC model based climate forecasts.

The climate models got scores far worse than a random walk, indicating a complete failure to provide valid forecast information at the regional level, even on long time scales.