Sentences with phrase «on climate model results»

This assumption is based on climate model results that gave high climate sensitivity for doubling of CO2 by smoothing out all the oscillation in GMST before the 1970s and leaving untouched the warming phase of the oscillation since then and calling it man - made global warming as shown below.

The Finnish Meteorological Institute has participated in research to estimate, based on climate model results and measurements, the maximum amount of carbon dioxide that can be released into the atmosphere without passing the climate warming limits set by the Paris Climate Agreement.

Not exact matches

«But if, as global circulation models suggest, drying continues, our results provide evidence that this could degrade the Amazonian forest canopies, which would have cascading effects on global carbon and climate dynamics.»

The results are based on a number of independent climate archives, as well as instrumental records, and hold up whilst applying a wide range of correction methods, which leads Laepple to believe that the problem lies more with the models.

The model calculations, which are based on data from the CLOUD experiment, reveal that the cooling effects of clouds are 27 percent less than in climate simulations without this effect as a result of additional particles caused by human activity: Instead of a radiative effect of -0.82 W / m2 the outcome is only -0.60 W / m2.

And by carefully measuring and modeling the resulting changes in atmospheric composition, scientists could improve their estimate of how sensitive Earth's climate is to CO2, said lead author Joyce Penner, a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Michigan whose work focuses on improving global climate models and their ability to model the interplay between clouds and aerosol particles.

Using data from several sources on 162 terrestrial animals and plants unique (endemic) to the Albertine Rift, the researchers used ecological niche modeling (computer models) to determine the extent of habitat already lost due to agriculture, and to estimate the future loss of habitat as a result of climate change.

«The result is not a surprise, but if you look at the global climate models that have been used to analyze what the planet looked like 20,000 years ago — the same models used to predict global warming in the future — they are doing, on average, a very good job reproducing how cold it was in Antarctica,» said first author Kurt Cuffey, a glaciologist at the University of California, Berkeley, and professor of geography and of earth and planetary sciences.

Since this would also result in more particulate matter entering the atmosphere which in turn has an influence on cloud formation, regional and global climate models might have to be adapted accordingly.

At the Environmental Change Institute in Oxford, researchers Nathalie Schaller and Friederike Otto analysed results from almost 40,000 climate model calculations to test the impact of climate change on Britain's winter rains.

The results could have consequences not only for future climate models, but may also impact current policies on land use intended to promote fungi.

The researchers» results were comparable to previous studies that have analysed air pollution and mortality; however, there was some variation depending on which climate model was used.

Most important, it relies on the first published results from the latest generation of so - called Earth System climate models, complex programs that run on supercomputers and seek to simulate the planet's oceans, land, ice, and atmosphere.

The models» results also play a significant role in the latest assessment report issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), where they are used to link the mitigation options described for different sectors such as buildings, transport, or energy supply.

Climate change models predict that the Arctic sea ice will continue to shrink in a warming world (as much as 40 % of the ice is expected to be gone by midcentury), and the resulting changes — including later formation of ice in the autumn, rain falling on the snow, and decreasing snow depths — will make it increasingly difficult for the seals to construct their snow caves, NOAA says.

At COP 14 in Poland in 2008, Buja gave a briefing on NCAR's climate - modeling results for the fourth assessment of the IPCC, issued in 2007.

«These world - first results will have significant impact on the development of climate models around the world,» said one of the study's authors, Prof Andy Pitman, Director of the Australian Research Council's Centre of Excellence for Climate Systems Science aclimate models around the world,» said one of the study's authors, Prof Andy Pitman, Director of the Australian Research Council's Centre of Excellence for Climate Systems Science aClimate Systems Science at UNSW.

The results so far show only a correlation between fires and water cycle indicators, but the data gathered from the study is allowing scientists to improve climate models to be able to establish a more direct relationship between biomass burning and its impacts on drought.

The Hadley Centre has calculated the massive increase in atmospheric CO2 levels if the Amazon was to die back as a result of global warming (climate models differ on how likely this is, I understand).

Results: The complex models scientists rely on to determine weather and potential climate changes have a hidden flaw.

The combined model created as a result of the research also provides more accurate estimates on the climate impacts of human activity - caused particulates.

Global climate modeling: While global climate models generally agree on historic emissions, current results vary widely under future climate change conditions.

-- 7) Forest models for Montana that account for changes in both climate and resulting vegetation distribution and patterns; 8) Models that account for interactions and feedbacks in climate - related impacts to forests (e.g., changes in mortality from both direct increases in warming and increased fire risk as a result of warming); 9) Systems thinking and modeling regarding climate effects on understory vegetation and interactions with forest trees; 10) Discussion of climate effects on urban forests and impacts to cityscapes and livability; 11) Monitoring and time - series data to inform adaptive management efforts (i.e., to determine outcome of a management action and, based on that outcome, chart future course of action); 12) Detailed decision support systems to provide guidance for managing for adaptmodels for Montana that account for changes in both climate and resulting vegetation distribution and patterns; 8) Models that account for interactions and feedbacks in climate - related impacts to forests (e.g., changes in mortality from both direct increases in warming and increased fire risk as a result of warming); 9) Systems thinking and modeling regarding climate effects on understory vegetation and interactions with forest trees; 10) Discussion of climate effects on urban forests and impacts to cityscapes and livability; 11) Monitoring and time - series data to inform adaptive management efforts (i.e., to determine outcome of a management action and, based on that outcome, chart future course of action); 12) Detailed decision support systems to provide guidance for managing for adaptModels that account for interactions and feedbacks in climate - related impacts to forests (e.g., changes in mortality from both direct increases in warming and increased fire risk as a result of warming); 9) Systems thinking and modeling regarding climate effects on understory vegetation and interactions with forest trees; 10) Discussion of climate effects on urban forests and impacts to cityscapes and livability; 11) Monitoring and time - series data to inform adaptive management efforts (i.e., to determine outcome of a management action and, based on that outcome, chart future course of action); 12) Detailed decision support systems to provide guidance for managing for adaptation.

Ricke and Caldeira sought to correct that by combining the results from two large modeling studies one about the way carbon emissions interact with the global carbon cycle and one about the effect of carbon on the Earth's climate used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate climate used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Climate Change.

«The rising risk results from decreases in precipitation, based on 16 leading climate models, and increases in water demand, based on current growth trends.

«The real world is much more complex than our climate models, so it would be premature to act based on model results like ours,» Caldeira said.

These results are based on data compiled from 15 different climate models, and use the average temperature from 1970 through 1999 as a baseline for comparison.

As our second year progressed, we began to see some positive results: Our use of common teacher and student language about behavior and rules, the emphasis on teacher modeling, and a great deal of practice in living our constitution all helped make the school climate more peaceful and productive.

As a result, choosing which Jeep Grand Cherokee model is right for you isn't exactly easy — though we reckon, due to the rather sparse amount of equipment on the entry - level «Laredo» trim (dual - zone climate control, a reversing camera and rear parking sensors are about as fancy as the standard equipment levels get), we recommend you consider the $ 35,375 75th Anniversary trim, as that comes with the sort of features you expect from a vehicle of this caliber (18inch alloy wheels, heated and power - adjustable front seats and an 8.4 - inch touchscreen interface that replaces the tiny 5inch system seen on the Laredo - spec Jeep Grand Cherokees) whilst being fairly reasonably priced.

Since the shocking results of our recent election cycle, I've been exploring Judd's writing on activism in the 1970s, where, conflicted, he admits to the political implications of the artwork he had wished to make in isolation from the turbulent political climate of his day.3 In fact, during this time he had also marched in an anti-Vietnam protest alongside Ad Reinhardt, organized artists against Robert Moses» Lower Manhattan Expressway, and advocated for a Jeffersonian model of self - governing townships.

It's something of an abstract concept, but with real world implications, and the universality of such physical models, based on things like radiative balance, atmospheric composition and density, distance from the local Sun, etc., is a very strong argument in favor of general acceptance of the results of climate models and observations on Earth.

My reading is that Shapiro et al. is based on a big assumption, and that it doesn't produce plausible results in climate models.

The model results (which are based on driving various climate models with estimated solar, volcanic, and anthropogenic radiative forcing changes over this timeframe) are, by in large, remarkably consistent with the reconstructions, taking into account the statistical uncertainties.

Model results don't depend critically on resolution — the climate sensitivity of the models is not a function of this in any obvious way, and the patterns of warming seen in coarse resolution models from the 1980s are very similar to those from AR4 or the upcoming AR5 (~ 50 times more horizontal grid points).

My experience is that most groups do not «precisely» tune their models to 20th Century trends or climate sensitivity, but given this example and the Hourdin results, more clarity on exactly what is done (whether explicitly or implicitly) is needed.

I am also interested in the apparently more extreme climate modelling results Hadley Centre is getting, but I'll have to be «sold» on those.

Interestingly, our results are actually pretty consistent with a lot of the recent literature on sensitivity: All studies comparing simple models with recent climate change (from Andronova and Schlesinger, 2001, onwards) find high sensitivities (more than 8K, say) are consistent (at the few - percent level) with the observed record unless they are ruled out a priori.

Although there is still some disagreement in the preliminary results (eg the description of polar ice caps), a lot of things appear to be quite robust as the climate models for instance indicate consistent patterns of surface warming and rainfall trends: the models tend to agree on a stronger warming in the Arctic and stronger precipitation changes in the Topics (see crude examples for the SRES A1b scenarios given in Figures 1 & 2; Note, the degrees of freedom varies with latitude, so that the uncertainty of these estimates are greater near the poles).

This result would be strongly dependent on the exact dynamic response of the Greenland ice sheet to surface meltwater, which is modeled poorly in todays global models.Yes human influence on the climate is real and we might even now be able to document changes in the behavior of weather phenomena related to disasters (e.g., Emanuel 2005), but we certainly haven't yet seen it in the impact record (i.e., economic losses) of extreme events.

The data analysis in this paper mainly concerned the trends over land, thus a key assumption for this study appears to rest solely on a personal communication from an economics professor purporting to be the results from the GISS coupled climate model.

On the contrary, our results add to a broadening collection of research indicating that models that simulate today's climate best tend to be the models that project the most global warming over the remainder of the twenty - first century.

I encountered «great difficulties» from Jan of 2000 until July of 2005 as a result of my concerns with climate change effects on hydrologic modeling and flood prediction.

(They also loudly attacked climate modelers for not reproducing data on ocean cooling (which turned out to be due to some faulty instruments on Argo floats), and then just as loudly promoted results from models that predicted increased wind shear in the Atlantic.)

Whether there is a divide between weather and climate scientists out in the field, the meteorological society's official 2007 statement on climate change very clearly accepted that people are jogging the system: «[S] trong observational evidence and results from modeling studies indicate that, at least over the last 50 years, human activities are a major contributor to climate change.»

The lines of evidence and analysis supporting the mainstream position on climate change are diverse and robust — embracing a huge body of direct measurements by a variety of methods in a wealth of locations on the Earth's surface and from space, solid understanding of the basic physics governing how energy flow in the atmosphere interacts with greenhouse gases, insights derived from the reconstruction of causes and consequences of millions of years of natural climatic variations, and the results of computer models that are increasingly capable of reproducing the main features of Earth's climate with and without human influences.

In the Antarctic, there is very sparse data on sea ice thickness — not enough to judge one way or another, leaving only climate modeling results to work with.

Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research made this point powerfully last year in an important piece in the journal Nature Reports / Climate Change warning that more uncertainty, not less, would likely result from a push to enrich climate models used for the next report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Climate Change warning that more uncertainty, not less, would likely result from a push to enrich climate models used for the next report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate climate models used for the next report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Climate Change:

These results, while confirming that anthropogenic - added climate forcing might have progressively played a dominant role in climate change during the last century, also suggested that the solar impact on climate change during the same period is signficantly stronger than what some theoretical models have predicted.»

However, he fails to discuss how, even though the detailed results may vary, all of these climate models indicate our emissions of greenhouse gases will have a substantial effect on the climate system in the coming decades.

In the rekognition of the uncertainties, the IPCC Good - Practice - Guidance - Paper on using climate model results offers some wise advice (first bullet point under section 3.5 on p. 10): the local climate change scenarios should be based on (i) historical change, (ii) process change (e.g. changes in the driving circulation), (iii) global climate change projected by GCMs, and (iv) downscaled projected change.