Sentences with phrase «on climate model tuning»

I was interviewed recently for a news article on climate model tuning, which said:... nearly every model has been calibrated precisely to the 20th century climate records — otherwise it would have ended up in the trash.

Not exact matches

This is because the models are based on equations representing the best understanding of the physical processes that govern climate, and in 2001 they were not fine - tuned to reproduce the most recent data.

He wants to know why Earth's global climate models break down on Venus, which has an atmosphere composed of 97 percent carbon dioxide — and what that reveals about the hidden fine - tunings of Earth models.

The new model developed at Princeton has the power to examine a number of climate - related scenarios, and their impacts on varying populations, on a finer - tuned scale.

«As Earth continues to warm, it may be approaching a critical climate threshold beyond which rapid and potentially permanent — at least on a human time - scale — changes not anticipated by climate models tuned to modern conditions may occur,» the report says.

This GMC Sierra 1500 Features the Following Options SLE VALUE PACKAGE includes (AG1) driver 10 - way power seat adjuster when ordered with (AZ3) seats only, (N37) manual tilt and telescopic steering column, (BTV) Remote vehicle starter system, (T3U) LED front fog lamps, (UG1) Universal Home Remote, (C49) rear - window defogger, (KI4) 110 - volt AC power outlet, (CJ2) dual - zone climate control, (Z82) trailering equipment, and (G80) rear locking differential for 2WD models only, SLE CONVENIENCE PACKAGE includes (JF4) power - adjustable pedals, (UD7) Rear Park Assist, (C49) rear - window defogger and (A48) sliding rear window, MAX TRAILERING PACKAGE includes 9.76» rear axle, 8 - speed transmission with 3.42 or 6 - speed transmission with 3.73, (JL1) trailer brake controller, enhanced cooling radiator, revised shock tuning for increased control, heavier duty rear springs and increased RGAWR Includes (G80) heavy - duty automatic locking rear differential on 2WD models (already standard on 4WD models) and Z82 Trailering Package.

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(Full disclosure, I spoke to him a couple of times for this article and I'm working on tuning description paper for the US climate modeling centers).

My experience is that most groups do not «precisely» tune their models to 20th Century trends or climate sensitivity, but given this example and the Hourdin results, more clarity on exactly what is done (whether explicitly or implicitly) is needed.

This is quite subtle though — weather forecast models obviously do better if they have initial conditions that are closer to the observations, and one might argue that for particular climate model predictions that are strongly dependent on the base climatology (such as for Arctic sea ice) tuning to the climatology will be worthwhile.

With «mean climate», surely the model ensemble mean is meant, however the «real data» to base the tuning on by definition is restricted to the single realisation of Earth's climate (including cloud cover caused by, for instance, multi-decadal oscillations instead of AGW feedback).

Climate models generally are based on physics and specifically not «tuned» to reproduce any trends, so a match to trends is a real test.

Thus Figure 1 depicts the IPCC TAR Scenario A2 temperature projection based on a simple climate model which was tuned to the seven Atmosphere - Ocean General Circulation Models (AOCGMs).

If the models show a lack of skill and need tuning with respect to predicting (in hindcast) even the current climate statistics on multi-decadal time scales (much less than CHANGES in climate statistics), they are not ready to be used as robust projection tools for the coming decades.

I suspect that many, although perhaps not all, of the climate models are idiot - savant models, tuned to fit a hypothesized pattern that tells a particular story on past data, but rather lacking predictive skill.

I would say climate scientists have actually done a good job recently of making model tuning more transparent and providing good information on the subject.

None of these could have been caused by an increase in atmospheric CO2, Model projections of warming during recent decades have greatly exceeded what has been observed, The modelling community has openly acknowledged that the ability of existing models to simulate past climates is due to numerous arbitrary tuning adjustments, Observations show no statistically valid trends in flooding or drought, and no meaningful acceleration whatsoever of pre-existing long term sea level rise (about 6 inches per century) worldwide, Current carbon dioxide levels, around 400 parts per million are still very small compared to the averages over geological history, when thousands of parts per million prevailed, and when life flourished on land and in the oceans.

It was possible to get a crude climate representation without the tuning, but the best simulations relied on this back - and - forth between model and observation.