Raj Yerasi, a money manager based in New York, has taken on the unenviable task in the following guest post of arguing the case that the increasing influence of foreign earnings
on corporate profit margins means that the ratio in the chart overstates future mean reversion in earnings:
Those posts sparked some intense debate in the comments and offline about the increasing influence of foreign profits
on corporate profit margins, and how this change may have permanently shifted up the mean for corporate profits as a proportion of GDP.
That puts pressure
on corporate profit margins and theoretically should lead to higher inflation.
Not exact matches
On the
profits front, we've developed a number of approaches over the years to understand what drives cyclical fluctuations in
profit margins (see for example Recognizing the Valuation Bubble in Equities and The Coming Retreat in
Corporate Earnings).
Japan's relatively low
corporate profit margins mean a given increase in revenues can have an outsized impact
on earnings.
Wall Street is placing a pathological over-reliance
on a single year of forward operating earnings as a complete summary of future
corporate prospects, without any adjustment for the level of
profit margins.
On a number of metrics,
corporate profit margins have reached multiyear highs and exceeded prior - cycle levels.
Point is, there are a lot people that can't afford health insurance and there is a lot of wasteful spending and massive
profit margins on the
corporate side.
Even considering the combined effect of somewhat greater international sales
on somewhat higher
profit margins, it is impossible to account for the overall change in
corporate profit margins on that basis.
Returns
on equities are impossible to predict, but the McKinsey researchers point to several factors that have changed since the «golden era,» including lower inflation, lower interest rates, slower economic growth and slimmer
corporate profit margins due to greater competition.
Hormel's
corporate culture is all about long - term
profit maximization, which has allowed it to generate strong, consistent, and growing
margins and returns
on shareholder capital over time.
Today more than ever the question of whether the stock market is overvalued or reasonably valued depends
on whether
corporate profit margins are abnormally elevated or sustainable.
Corporate profit margins are presently 70 percent above the historical mean going back to 1947, as I've discussed earlier (see, for example, Warren Buffett, Jeremy Grantham, and John Hussman on Profit, GDP and Competi
profit margins are presently 70 percent above the historical mean going back to 1947, as I've discussed earlier (see, for example, Warren Buffett, Jeremy Grantham, and John Hussman
on Profit, GDP and Competi
Profit, GDP and Competition).
I've posted here regularly about the implications of mean reversion in elevated
profit margins (see, for example, The Temptation To Abandon Proven Models In Speculative and Fearful Markets: Why This Time Isn't Different, What Record Corporate Profit Margins Imply For Future Profitability and The Stock Market, Warren Buffett, Jeremy Grantham, and John Hussman on Profit, GDP and Competi
profit margins (see, for example, The Temptation To Abandon Proven Models In Speculative and Fearful Markets: Why This Time Isn't Different, What Record Corporate Profit Margins Imply For Future Profitability and The Stock Market, Warren Buffett, Jeremy Grantham, and John Hussman on Profit, GDP and Compet
margins (see, for example, The Temptation To Abandon Proven Models In Speculative and Fearful Markets: Why This Time Isn't Different, What Record
Corporate Profit Margins Imply For Future Profitability and The Stock Market, Warren Buffett, Jeremy Grantham, and John Hussman on Profit, GDP and Competi
Profit Margins Imply For Future Profitability and The Stock Market, Warren Buffett, Jeremy Grantham, and John Hussman on Profit, GDP and Compet
Margins Imply For Future Profitability and The Stock Market, Warren Buffett, Jeremy Grantham, and John Hussman
on Profit, GDP and Competi
Profit, GDP and Competition).
-LSB-...] To Abandon Proven Models In Speculative and Fearful Markets: Why This Time Isn't Different, What Record
Corporate Profit Margins Imply For Future Profitability and The Stock Market, Warren Buffett, Jeremy Grantham, and John Hussman
on Profit, GDP and Competition).
Valuation thought model (this is everything I have been discussing, from how to come up with Central Value to thoughts
on corporate profits and
profit margins and interest rates)
Developed productivity reports
on financial declines and
profit margins based
on corporate goals for store for Manager, using Word
Commodity Components International (Peabody, MA) 9/2001 — 9/2003 Technology Broker • Sourced and sold computer hardware products to major computer retailers, resellers, and
corporate end - users worldwide • Managed the entire sales and purchasing cycle, including prospecting, opportunity development, sales negotiations, and supporting relationships with potential buyers and potential product suppliers • Achieved roughly $ 50,000 a month in gross
profit — based
on an average of 10 %
margin per sale — which greatly exceeded the $ 10,000 monthly gross
profit expected out of a second year sales professional at the firm