Sentences with phrase «on cumulative emissions»

The historical responsibility is not based on cumulative emissions but instead measured in terms of the countries» estimated contribution to the increase in global - mean surface - air temperature.

* Responsibility score is based on cumulative emissions of CO2 from 1960 - 2008, the latest year official data is available.

This focus on a cumulative emissions limit for the period from 2000 to 2049 (which is arguably a period of interest for negotiators) has been picked up by the most recent Letter and it is the starting point for the analysis they present, although slightly refined to 2011 to 2050.

This contrasts to previous methods which have been based on cumulative emissions to date.

We then derive gridded medians and CIs for local committed SLR including all components, based on cumulative emissions and ice sheet case.

But a carbon tax that increases over time at a persistent and predictable rate would minimize the expected economic cost of achieving any climate target (targets that depend, given the way the climate system works, on cumulative emissions over many decades).

Thus, climate changes forced by CO2 depend primarily on cumulative emissions, making it progressively more and more difficult to avoid further substantial climate change.

Not exact matches

That information can then be plugged into atmospheric models to calculate cumulative emissions across larger areas, says Steve Wofsy, an atmospheric scientist at Harvard who is working on the project.

Even the 350 - ppm limit for carbon dioxide is «questionable,» says physicist Myles Allen of the Climate Dynamics Group at the University of Oxford, and focusing instead on keeping cumulative emissions below one trillion metric tons might make more sense, which would mean humanity has already used up more than half of its overall emissions budget.

Another graphic, circulated on Twitter by German broadcaster Deutsch Welle, shows how different cumulative, historic emissions look from the current scenario: China three years ago surpassed the United States as the global greenhouse gas emissions leader.

The time frame in which China's emissions were overestimated «is too short to have a cumulative impact on climate scenarios,» says Zhu Liu, the lead author and a climate change specialist at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government.

A limit of approximately 500 GtC on cumulative fossil fuel emissions, accompanied by a net storage of 100 GtC in the biosphere and soil, could keep global temperature close to the Holocene range, assuming that the net future forcing change from other factors is small.

A global warming target is converted to a fossil fuel emissions target with the help of global climate - carbon - cycle models, which reveal that eventual warming depends on cumulative carbon emissions, not on the temporal history of emissions [12].

This approach is complementary to the approach of estimating cumulative emissions allowed to achieve a given limit on global warming [12].

The emission limit depends on climate sensitivity, but central estimates [12]--[13], including those in the upcoming Fifth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [14], are that a 2 °C global warming limit implies a cumulative carbon emissions limit of the order of 1000 GtC.

The long - term sea level rise will depend critically on the cumulative carbon emission pathway humans follow, which determines the sustained global warming that can be maintained for centuries to millennia.

Mark — What are your thoughts about the analysis by Ramanathan and Feng (PNAS, Sept 17,2008: http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0803838105), in which they calculate the committed warming of cumulative emissions since the pre-industrial era as in the region of 2.4 °C (with a confidence interval of 1.4 °C to 4.3 °C), based on calculating the equilibrium temperature if GHG concentrations are held at 2005 levels into the future.

The total warming from CO2 emissions represents the sum of all individual country contributions, estimated based on the climate response to cumulative emissions.

On the one hand, climate change depends on cumulative greenhouse - gas emissions, which drive concentrations which drive temperature changOn the one hand, climate change depends on cumulative greenhouse - gas emissions, which drive concentrations which drive temperature changon cumulative greenhouse - gas emissions, which drive concentrations which drive temperature change.

Drawing on experience building a customer base for various products over many years, Clark sees efforts to curb emissions of greenhouse gases as a solution that — because of the long - term and cumulative nature of warming risks — is offered well ahead of public recognition of the problem (truly disruptive changes to conditions and resources humans depend on).

Clear decrease in average rainfall over Central America as a consequence of 21st century climate change, depending on the height of cumulative greenhouse gas emissions.

Michael R. Raupach, Steven J. Davis, Glen P. Peters, Robbie M. Andrew, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Pierre Friedlingstein, Frank Jotzo, Detlef P. van Vuuren and Corinnele Quéré, Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions, Nature Climate Change, 4, 873 - 879 (2014), doi: 10.1038 / nclimate2384.

This analysis focused on the relationship between cumulative CO2 emissions budgets and the odds of staying below 2 °C of warming, and thus had the important side effect of establishing cumulative budgets (in this case over the 2000 - 2050 period) as the best predictors of success for any given global emissions pathway.

For consistency, we approximate cumulative emissions through 2015 as 560 GtC based on historical values and forecasts under RCP 8.5 (21, 22); for a special case we add 199 GtC to this total to represent the future expectation of emissions already implicit in the current global energy infrastructure (23).

We estimate committed warming based on a distribution of possible transient response coefficient values from Gillett et al. and from future cumulative emissions under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 (RCP Database version 2.0.5).

By «committed» or «locked in» warming or sea level in a given year, we refer to the long - term effects of cumulative anthropogenic carbon emissions through that year: the sustained temperature increase or SLR that will ensue on a time scale of centuries to millennia in the absence of massive and prolonged future active carbon removal from the atmosphere.

The issue was taken up in the same contact group as on cumulative fossil fuel emissions.

The aim in limiting greenhouse gas emissions should be to keep Earth's climate as close as possible to what it has been during the Holocene, say the study authors, adding that doing so depends on the cumulative amount of emissions released into the atmosphere throughout the industrial period, not just those emitted today.

Following these informal discussions, delegates agreed on text stating that limiting the warming caused by anthropogenic CO2 emissions alone with a probability range of greater than 33 %, 50 %, and 66 %, to less than 2ºC since the period 1861 - 1880, will require cumulative CO2 emissions from all anthropogenic sources to stay between 0 and about 1560 GtC, 0 and about 1210 GtC, and 0 and about 1000 GtC.

China stressed that it has the same concerns here as on the discussion on cumulative fossil fuel emissions and suggested inserting information on all RCPs.

One example is the organization Oil Change International which argues that most remaining fossil fuel reserves has to be left in the ground to keep below 2 °C on the basis of cumulative emission budgets (Oil Change International, 2016).

Climate Stabilization, Climate Change Commitment and Irreversibility: On the relationship between cumulative total emissions of CO2 and global mean surface temperature change, China, Saudi Arabia and India expressed difficulties understanding that this relationship is linear, with China, supported by Saudi Arabia, suggesting referring to «positively correlated» instead of «approximately linear.»

Carbon and Other Biochemical Cycles: On cumulative fossil fuel emissions for the 2012 - 2100 period, China, Kenya and Venezuela, opposed by Germany, said presenting figures for the means together with the ranges created confusion.

Importantly, the report also provides information on temperature implications of cumulative total CO2 emissions.

Coloured bars correspond to the carbon budget from different studies listed on the left, while values below zero mean that current cumulative emissions already exceeded the «well below» 1.5 C carbon budget.

While the models get the warming just about right for the current concentrations of CO2, the fact that they tend to have lower estimates of historical emissions means that the carbon budgets based on the relationship between cumulative CO2 emissions and warming tend to be on the low side.

This relationship between cumulative emissions and warming is not perfect, as it will change based on what happens to non-CO2 greenhouse gases, such as methane and nitrous oxide, as well as how quickly climate - cooling aerosols are reduced.

Cumulative carbon dioxide emissions should be calculated on a per capita basis for each country, so that every nation can shoulder a common but differentiated responsibility for climate change... Such a calculation «better reflects the principal of equity for developing countries»...

Studies surveyed Millar, R. et al. (2017) Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 C, Nature Geophysics, doi: 10.1038 / ngeo3031 Matthews, H.D., et al. (2017) Estimating Carbon Budgets for Ambitious Climate Targets, Current Climate Change Reports, doi: 10.1007 / s40641 -017-0055-0 Goodwin, P., et al. (2018) Pathways to 1.5 C and 2C warming based on observational and geological constraints, Nature Geophysics, doi: 10.1038 / s41561 -017-0054-8 Schurer, A.P., et al. (2018) Interpretations of the Paris climate target, Nature Geophysics, doi: 10.1038 / s41561 -018-0086-8 Tokarska, K., and Gillett, N. (2018) Cumulative carbon emissions budgets consistent with 1.5 C global warming, Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038 / s41558 -018-0118-9 Millar, R., and Friedlingstein, P. (2018) The utility of the historical record for assessing the transient climate response to cumulative emissions, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.2016.0449 Lowe, J.A., and Bernie, D. (2018) The impact of Earth system feedbacks on carbon budgets and climate response, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.2017.0263 Rogelj, J., et al. (2018) Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 C, Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038 / s41558 -018-0091-3 Kriegler, E., et al. (2018) Pathways limiting warming to 1.5 °C: A tale of turning around in no time, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rstaCumulative carbon emissions budgets consistent with 1.5 C global warming, Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038 / s41558 -018-0118-9 Millar, R., and Friedlingstein, P. (2018) The utility of the historical record for assessing the transient climate response to cumulative emissions, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.2016.0449 Lowe, J.A., and Bernie, D. (2018) The impact of Earth system feedbacks on carbon budgets and climate response, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.2017.0263 Rogelj, J., et al. (2018) Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 C, Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038 / s41558 -018-0091-3 Kriegler, E., et al. (2018) Pathways limiting warming to 1.5 °C: A tale of turning around in no time, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rstacumulative emissions, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.2016.0449 Lowe, J.A., and Bernie, D. (2018) The impact of Earth system feedbacks on carbon budgets and climate response, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.2017.0263 Rogelj, J., et al. (2018) Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 C, Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038 / s41558 -018-0091-3 Kriegler, E., et al. (2018) Pathways limiting warming to 1.5 °C: A tale of turning around in no time, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.2016.0457

The idea of a «carbon budget» that ties an amount of future warming to a total amount of CO2 emissions is based on a strong relationship between cumulative emissions and temperatures in climate models.

In order to estimate the cumulative CO2 emissions for use in calculating the carbon budget, ESMs within CMIP5 had to back - calculate emissions based on the atmospheric concentrations using the carbon cycle within each model.

A global phase - down could avoid 1.1 — 1.7 billion metric tons CO2 equivalent (CO2 equivalent is a measure used to compare impacts of greenhouse gases based on their global warming potential in relation to CO2) of GHG emissions per year by 2030, with cumulative emission reductions of nearly 100 billion metric tons CO2 equivalent by 2050.

According to Ward's full commentary, accepted for publication in the same journal as Lomborg's paper, «Projections of global mean surface temperature for the period up to 2100 are based on cumulative annual global emissions of greenhouse gases up to the end of the century.

The German Advisory Council on Global Change [15] argued for a cumulative limit between 2010 and 2050, while Matthews et al. [12] argued that warming by a given date is proportional to cumulative emissions to that date.

The actual shape depends on (a) the relationship between CO2 concentration and cumulative CO2 emissions; and (b) the relationships between transient and equilibrium temperature and CO2 concentration.

Combined with the logarithmic dependence of radiative forcing on CO2 concentration, this results in the approximately linear relationship between warming and cumulative CO2 emissions.

This occurs because the cumulative totals include contributions for portions of the emissions floor that are emitted after the time of peak warming, which can have no effect on peak warming, as illustrated by the green curves in figure 1.

«The proportionality of warming to cumulative emissions depends in part on a cancellation of the saturation of carbon sinks with increasing cumulative emissions (leading to a larger airborne fraction of cumulative emissions for higher emissions) and the logarithmic dependence of radiative forcing on atmospheric CO2 concentration [leading to a smaller increase in radiative forcing per unit increase in atmospheric CO2 at higher CO2 concentrations; Matthews et al. (2009)-RSB-.

Figure 3 shows the impact of emissions floors on different cumulative emission metrics, and each of the panels has the same form as figure 2a.

We also find that, for large cumulative totals in particular, cumulative metrics based on integrations over smaller time periods, such as 2010 — 2050, do not correlate with peak warming as well as cumulative emissions to a given date near the time of peak warming.