Sentences with phrase «on decadal time»

It would seem that use of the 100 year factor linearizes a highly nonlinear process in a way that significantly underestimates the impact of a CH4 release on decadal time scales.

Who thinks on decadal time - scales?

All six individual runs with bias - adjusted SST (only the average is shown) give simulated land air temperatures close to those observed so that internal model variability is small on decadal time - scales compared to the signal being sought.

Conclusion Warming induced by energy - imbalance is negligible on decadal time - scales, overwhelming on millennial time - scales.

«This is a very valuable step forward,» says meteorologist Rowan Sutton of the University of Reading, U.K. «It's precisely on the decadal time scale and on regional scales that natural variability and anthropogenic effects have comparable magnitudes.»

Fan says «Who thinks on decadal time - scales?

Neff W. D., J. Perlwitz and M. P. Hoerling (September 2008): Observational evidence for asymmetric changes in tropospheric heights over Antarctica on decadal time scales.

It is well - known that changes in temperature on decadal time scales are strongly influenced by natural and internal variations, and should not be confused with a long - term trend (Easterling and Wehner, 2009; Foster and Rahmstorf, 2011).

At the very least they do a poor job on decadal time scales.

What is more, she is trying to claim the models are wrong period by using data on a decadal time frame (full well knowing that they struggle on such time scales), but at the same time is informing CFAN clients that they can provide forecasts on a decadal time scale.

On decadal time scales, the greatest vulnerability is to extreme weather events: scenarios of frequency (clustering), worst case

Science Deliverable II In - depth NASA - style computational simulations that affirm ergodic climate dynamics on decadal time - scales.

Cahalan, R. F., Wen, G. Y., Harder, J. W. & Pilewskie, P. Temperature responses to spectral solar variability on decadal time scales.

The reason: our measurements of global weather on decadal time scales are insufficient to reject such a possibility.

Latif, M., M. Collins, H. Pohlmann, and N. Keenlyside, 2006: A review of predictability studies of Atlantic sector climate on decadal time scales.

The sobering news is that change has taken place historically only on decadal time scales.

According to the researchers, natural variability plays a large role in the rate of global mean surface warming on decadal time scales.

Actions like recycling, hanging clothes to dry, and so forth, can reduce emissions immediately, but tend to have much lower RAER on a decadal time scale than one - time actions that upgrade household energy - using equipment (cars, heating systems, etc.; Dietz et al 2009).

The development of a fully coupled ocean - ice - atmosphere prediction system is a key issue for a better Outlook and for climate predictions on a decadal time scale.

Research has identified several design principles for creating effective interventions to achieve RAER from the highest - impact household behaviors that occur on a decadal time scale (e.g. upgrading heating equipment, choosing a fuel - efficient vehicle, installing solar panels).

And his predictions are even worse:» The continuing planetary imbalance and the rapid increase of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel assure that global warming will continue on decadal time scales.»

doi: 10.1007 / s00382 -012-1313-4 who report quite limited predictive skill in two regions of the oceans on the decadal time period, but no regional skill elsewhere, when they conclude that «A 4 - model 12 - member ensemble of 10 - yr hindcasts has been analysed for skill in SST, 2m temperature and precipitation.

Natural variability plays a large role in the rate of global mean surface warming on decadal time scales.

The continuing planetary imbalance and the rapid increase of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel assure that global warming will continue on decadal time scales.

In each case heavily modulated by ocean behaviour on decadal time scales but readily apparent over a century or two.

Ole Willy says, «The hiatus in warming observed over the past 16 years demonstrates that CO2 is not a control knob on climate variability on decadal time scales.»

On longer time scales, the two longest time series (using independent criteria for selection, quality control, interpolation and analysis of similar data sets) show good agreement about long - term trends and also on decadal time scales.

The sea ice responds on the decadal time scale.

A cold phase transition, which the historical record indicates can occur quite rapidly with large secular temperature changes on a decadal time scale, would truly be a catastrophe.

One notable point is that I received no pushback from anyone for my statements on the value of the 21st century climate models to support water decision making, and the usefulness of the PDO and AMO on decadal time scales.

IIRC, long - term volcanic forcing is negligible, and solar influence is not a major factor (15 % on decadal time scales according to Trenberth).

The likelihood of climate - change catastrophe obviously is zero on decadal time - scales, and it is reasonably small too (we hope!)

My understanding is that the response of the climate system to even a constant solar influx is highly chaotic, even on decadal time scales.

The Gulf Stream circulation is about equal parts wind driven, which is roughly constant in strength, and deep - convection driven, which varies significnatly on decadal time scales.

While rereading the ocean heat content changes by Levitus 2005 at http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/PDF/PAPERS/grlheat05.pdf a remarkable sentence was noticed: «However, the large decrease in ocean heat content starting around 1980 suggests that internal variability of the Earth system significantly affects Earth's heat balance on decadal time - scales.»

This is important because * if * resources were more abundant and * if * climate change were happening more slowly and * if * climate could not possibly change multiple degrees and multiple meters of SLR on decadal time scales, my solution set would be vastly different.

Disagreement among overlapping observations indicates unresolved drifts that suggest the TSI record is not sufficiently stable to discern solar changes on decadal time scales.»

Pierce, D.W., T.P. Barnett, and M. Latif, 2000: Connections between the Pacific Ocean tropics and midlatitudes on decadal time scales.

On decadal time scales, annual streamflow variation and precipitation are driven by large - scale patterns of climate variability, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (see teleconnections description in Climate chapter)(Pederson et al. 2011a; Seager and Hoerling 2014).

While the atmosphere is mainly causing climate variations on shorter time scales, from months to years, the longer - term fluctuations, such as those on decadal time scales, are primarily determined by the ocean.

A study led by scientists at the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel shows that the ocean currents influence the heat exchange between ocean and atmosphere and thus can explain climate variability on decadal time scales.

Not exact matches

«Based on what we've found, it is possible that sea - level rise over decadal time scales will be a key storyline in future climate predictions,» he said.

«Such decadal climate fluctuations are superimposed on the general warming trend, so that at times it seems as if the warming trend slowed or even stopped.

The working group on coupled biogeochemical cycling and controlling factors dealt with questions regarding the role of plankton diversity, how ocean biogeochemistry will respond to global changes on decadal to centennial time scales, the key biogeochemical links between the ocean, atmosphere, and climate, and the role of estuaries, shelves, and marginal seas in the capturing, transformation, and exchange of terrestrial and open - marine material.

On shorter time scales, and layered on top of Pacific Decadal Oscillation variation, the Pacific North American pattern and the El Niño - Southern Oscillation cycles (see Climate chapter) can also affect variation in snowpacOn shorter time scales, and layered on top of Pacific Decadal Oscillation variation, the Pacific North American pattern and the El Niño - Southern Oscillation cycles (see Climate chapter) can also affect variation in snowpacon top of Pacific Decadal Oscillation variation, the Pacific North American pattern and the El Niño - Southern Oscillation cycles (see Climate chapter) can also affect variation in snowpack.

In this study, we undertake another effort towards understanding the role of the Sun in changing or varying the Earth's climate on seasonal to decadal time scale.

Pieter Tans of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration stressed the persistent uncertainty in the range of warming expected from a buildup of greenhouse gases as cutting against the idea of specific thresholds: «Our biggest science problem is that we do not know how strong the climate feedbacks are, or even whether we know all of the ones that are important on decadal and longer time scales,» he said in an e-mail.

She goes so far as to say (in her post responding to Gavin's post, but responding to something else) «I do regard the emerging realization of the importance of natural variability to be an existential threat to the mainstream theory of climate variations on decadal to century time scales.»

For the future, data assimilation might help us to keep the state of a climate model closer to the real world's, allowing us to improve predictions on seasonal and decadal time scales.

The fact that this is possible indicates that we have achieved a fundamental understanding of the system, at least on annual to decadal time scales.