Scientists are producing some fascinating research on natural climate
variability on decadal time scales as they search for an explanation for this unexpected slowdown in warming.
In any event, we can anticipate that global warming will
continue on decadal time scales, because Earth is out of energy balance — more energy coming in than going out — as a result of increased atmospheric greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide.
On longer time scales, the two longest time series (using independent criteria for selection, quality control, interpolation and analysis of similar data sets) show good agreement about long - term trends and
also on decadal time scales.
It is well - known that changes in
temperature on decadal time scales are strongly influenced by natural and internal variations, and should not be confused with a long - term trend (Easterling and Wehner, 2009; Foster and Rahmstorf, 2011).
Their method was able to explain about 70 percent of regional sea level variability
on decadal time scales for the West Coast, about 80 percent for the East Coast, and about 45 percent for the Gulf Coast.
This is important because * if * resources were more abundant and * if * climate change were happening more slowly and * if * climate could not possibly change multiple degrees and multiple meters of
SLR on decadal time scales, my solution set would be vastly different.
One notable point is that I received no pushback from anyone for my statements on the value of the 21st century climate models to support water decision making, and the usefulness of the PDO and
AMO on decadal time scales.
Research has identified several design principles for creating effective interventions to achieve RAER from the highest - impact household behaviors that
occur on a decadal time scale (e.g. upgrading heating equipment, choosing a fuel - efficient vehicle, installing solar panels).
Actions like recycling, hanging clothes to dry, and so forth, can reduce emissions immediately, but tend to have much lower
RAER on a decadal time scale than one - time actions that upgrade household energy - using equipment (cars, heating systems, etc.; Dietz et al 2009).
Neff W. D., J. Perlwitz and M. P. Hoerling (September 2008): Observational evidence for asymmetric changes in tropospheric heights over
Antarctica on decadal time scales.
«This is a very valuable step forward,» says meteorologist Rowan Sutton of the University of Reading, U.K. «It's
precisely on the decadal time scale and on regional scales that natural variability and anthropogenic effects have comparable magnitudes.»
A study led by scientists at the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel shows that the ocean currents influence the heat exchange between ocean and atmosphere and thus can explain climate
variability on decadal time scales.
The continuing planetary imbalance and the rapid increase of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel assure that global warming will
continue on decadal time scales.
On longer time scales, the two longest time series (using independent criteria for selection, quality control, interpolation and analysis of similar data sets) show good agreement about long - term trends and
also on decadal time scales.
While the atmosphere is mainly causing climate variations on shorter time scales, from months to years, the longer - term fluctuations, such as
those on decadal time scales, are primarily determined by the ocean.
On decadal time scales, annual streamflow variation and precipitation are driven by large - scale patterns of climate variability, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (see teleconnections description in Climate chapter)(Pederson et al. 2011a; Seager and Hoerling 2014).
If true then it would appear to undermine the IPCC hypothesis of low internal variability and high climate sensitivity; instead the pre IPCC SAR perspective that the climate signal contains both internal variability and forcings (including CO2)
on decadal time scales, with the Swanson and Tsonis elaboration of that, would appear to offer a more useful model.
But the perceptive person should be able to see that climate is warming
on decadal time scales.
According to the researchers, natural variability plays a large role in the rate of global mean surface warming
on decadal time scales.
Latif, M., M. Collins, H. Pohlmann, and N. Keenlyside, 2006: A review of predictability studies of Atlantic sector climate
on decadal time scales.
Cahalan, R. F., Wen, G. Y., Harder, J. W. & Pilewskie, P. Temperature responses to spectral solar variability
on decadal time scales.
However, this practice tends to hide the fact that climate variability itself is changing
on decadal time scales.