Sentences with phrase «on decadal variability»

But having prevailed on decadal variability — we shall now move on to centennial and millennial variability.

Some better ideas on decadal variability should emerge from AR5 — but I have been disappointed before.

Reliable data on decadal variability of the Earth's radiation budget are hard to come by, but to provide some reality check I based my setting of the scaling factor between radiative forcing and the SOI / PDOI index on the tropical data of Wielecki et al 2002 (as corrected in response to Trenberth's criticism here.)

Not exact matches

A study led by scientists at the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel shows that the ocean currents influence the heat exchange between ocean and atmosphere and thus can explain climate variability on decadal time scales.

On decadal time scales, annual streamflow variation and precipitation are driven by large - scale patterns of climate variability, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (see teleconnections description in Climate chapter)(Pederson et al. 2011a; Seager and Hoerlingdecadal time scales, annual streamflow variation and precipitation are driven by large - scale patterns of climate variability, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (see teleconnections description in Climate chapter)(Pederson et al. 2011a; Seager and HoerlingDecadal Oscillation (see teleconnections description in Climate chapter)(Pederson et al. 2011a; Seager and Hoerling 2014).

It is important to note that any potential effects will be spatially and temporally variable, depending on current forest conditions, local site characteristics, environmental influences, and annual and decadal patterns of climate variability, such as the El Niño - Southern Oscillation cycle, which can drive regional weather and climate conditions.

... On decadal to multidecadal timescales, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and the Atlantic tripole mode determine the variability of rainfall over India (Sen Roy et al., 2003; Lu et al., 2006; Zhang and Delworth, 2006; Li et al., 2008; Sen Roy, 2011; Krishnamurthy and Krishnamurthy, 2014a, 2014b, decadal to multidecadal timescales, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and the Atlantic tripole mode determine the variability of rainfall over India (Sen Roy et al., 2003; Lu et al., 2006; Zhang and Delworth, 2006; Li et al., 2008; Sen Roy, 2011; Krishnamurthy and Krishnamurthy, 2014a, 2014b, Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and the Atlantic tripole mode determine the variability of rainfall over India (Sen Roy et al., 2003; Lu et al., 2006; Zhang and Delworth, 2006; Li et al., 2008; Sen Roy, 2011; Krishnamurthy and Krishnamurthy, 2014a, 2014b, 2016b).

Another interesting question concerning a new Maunder Minimum would be the impacts on decadal - scale prediction, where both internal variability and changes in TSI are competitive with changing greenhouse gases.

In their paper Decadal Variations in the Global Atmospheric Land Temperatures, they find that the largest contributor to global average temperature variability on short (2 - 5 year) timescales in not the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO)(as everyone else believes), but is actually the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).

In Atmospheric Controls On Northeast Pacific Temperature Variability And Change, 1900 — 2012, Johnstone 2014 showed the Pacific Decadal Oscillation can explain climate change in the Pacific northeast without invoking greenhouse gases.

Indeed, one valid criticism of the recent papers on transient constraints is precisely that the simple models used do not have sufficient decadal variability!

She goes so far as to say (in her post responding to Gavin's post, but responding to something else) «I do regard the emerging realization of the importance of natural variability to be an existential threat to the mainstream theory of climate variations on decadal to century time scales.»

At the October 2004 SORCE meeting there was a presentation by Enric Palle (Big Bear Solar Observatory) on «Decadal Variability in the Earth's Reflectance as Observed by Earthshine».

(1) The «fast response» component of the climate system, consisting of the atmosphere coupled to a mixed layer upper ocean, has very little natural variability on the decadal and longer time scale.

«The forecast for global mean temperature which we published highlights the ability of natural variability to cause climate fluctuations on decadal scale, even on a global scale.

I agree that the models tend to show less decadal ocean variability than observed (given the obvious caveats on the observational side), but absolutely disagree that this implies that longer term estimates are off.

While rereading the ocean heat content changes by Levitus 2005 at http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/PDF/PAPERS/grlheat05.pdf a remarkable sentence was noticed: «However, the large decrease in ocean heat content starting around 1980 suggests that internal variability of the Earth system significantly affects Earth's heat balance on decadal time - scales.»

Indeed, Curry's presentation says «ENSO doesn't just produce interannual variability, but also variability on decadal - plus timescales,» that is as MYA - ENSO.

(and over the next century, decadal variability will give us wetter and drier periods imposed on, and maybe interacting with, a greenhouse signal) We don't know for sure, and so we must try and assess the risks with the info we have at hand.

The stagnation in greenhouse warming observed over the past 15 + years demonstrates that CO2 is not a control knob that can fine tune climate variability on decadal and multi-decadal time scales.

It is also important to note that the models are not designed to project climate on a decadal basis, but on a centennial basis, where the effects of internal variability can more reasonably be expected to average out.

CLIVAR - ICTP Workshop on Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability: Challenge and Opportunity

Results from our previous study indicated that the magnitude of unforced variability simulated by climate models may be underestimated on decadal and longer timescales and our new estimate of unforced variability largely supports this conclusion.

Some of these episodes are based on climatology (i.e., averages over decadal timescales) as previously mentioned, so they don't allow the study of interannual variability but do give strong evidence of prevailing conditions in the longer term; this is especially true of the southern hemisphere.

Anthropogenic global warming inherently has decadal time scales and can be readily masked by natural variability on short time scales.

This analytical report covers the first decade of the 21st century and aims at providing a decadal perspective of climate variability and change and its observed impacts on different sectors.

Let me say again 20 % of the LOD's decadal variability is strongly correlated to the sunspot magnetic cycle This is based on the LOD data widely used by the NASA - JPL and Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris.

Crucially, on previous occasions when decadal warming was particularly rapid, the scientific community did not give short - term climate variability the attention it has recently received, when decadal warming was slower.

The IPCC treats natural internal variability as «noise»; we argue that it is the fundamental climate signal on decadal to century time scales, with external forcing projecting onto these modes.

The concentration on the PDO is not nearly the whole story of decadal variability as it is linked to the frequency and intensity of ENSO in the Pacific multi-decadal pattern.

The platform will complement existing GMES / Copernicus pre-operational components, but will focus on datasets which provide information on climate variability on decadal to centennial time scales from observed and projected climate change impacts in Europe, and will provide a toolbox to generate, compare and rank key indicators.

Ole Willy says, «The hiatus in warming observed over the past 16 years demonstrates that CO2 is not a control knob on climate variability on decadal time scales.»

This paper reviews advances made during the last decade to better understand the impact of global SST variability on West African rainfall at interannual to decadal time scales.

natural internal variability can be pretty large on decadal to century time scales, and minimization of this variability by the hockey team has been very damaging to the science and the identification and intepretation of natural variability.

The Decadal Climate Prediction Project addresses a range of scientific issues involving the ability of the climate system to be predicted on annual to decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale variability, and the production of forecasts of benefit to both science and Decadal Climate Prediction Project addresses a range of scientific issues involving the ability of the climate system to be predicted on annual to decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale variability, and the production of forecasts of benefit to both science and decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale variability, and the production of forecasts of benefit to both science and society

(A) coordinate programs at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to ensure the timely production and distribution of data and information on global, national, regional, and local climate variability and change over all time scales relevant for planning and response, including intraseasonal, interannual, decadal, and multidecadal time periods;

Natural variability plays a large role in the rate of global mean surface warming on decadal time scales.

The influence of large - scale climate modes of variability (the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-RRB- on APF magnitude is also assessed, and placed in context with these more localized controls.

Building on previous efforts, this three - day workshop will use the outcomes to guide synthesis efforts, coordinate on - going research to fill out key gaps, and provide specific recommendations for accelerating scientific progress — with the aim to improve our understanding and predictability of 1) high - to mid-latitude climate variability on subseasonal - to - seasonal and on interannual - to - decadal timescales and 2) climate extremes.

The missing variability in the models highlights the critical need to improve cloud modeling in the tropics so that prediction of tropical climate on interannual and decadal time scales can be improved.»

Obviously you are not aware that the decadal variability of ENSO is not in synch with the PDO: The graph is from this post: http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2011/06/30/yet-even-more-discussions-about-the-pacific-decadal-oscillation-pdo/ The reasons for the differences are of course due to the influence of sea level pressure on the PDO.

Yes we really like observations in Earth sciences FOMBS — happy to see you are on board with vigourous decadal variability for which a great deal of science exists.

To describe and understand the physical processes responsible for climate variability and predictability on seasonal, interannual, decadal, and centennial time - scales, through the collection and analysis of observations and the development and application of models of the coupled climate system, in cooperation with other relevant climate - research and observing programmes.

«The authors write that North Pacific Decadal Variability (NPDV) «is a key component in predictability studies of both regional and global climate change,»... they emphasize that given the links between both the PDO and the NPGO with global climate, the accurate characterization and the degree of predictability of these two modes in coupled climate models is an important «open question in climate dynamics» that needs to be addressed... report that model - derived «temporal and spatial statistics of the North Pacific Ocean modes exhibit significant discrepancies from observations in their twentieth - century climate... conclude that «for implications on future climate change, the coupled climate models show no consensus on projected future changes in frequency of either the first or second leading pattern of North Pacific SST anomalies,» and they say that «the lack of a consensus in changes in either mode also affects confidence in projected changes in the overlying atmospheric circulation.»»

My calculations show that combining heliospheric magnetic field (controlling input of the cosmic rays basis of the Svensmark's theory) with changes in the Earth's magnetic field indeed shows close correlation with the temperature variability in the N. Hemisphere on the annual, decadal and multi-decadal scale.

Decadal variations in the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation are characterized by a pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies that resemble the central Pacific El Niño, a dominant mode of interannual variability with far - reaching effects on global climate patterns5, 6, 7.

It should be noted that we are not suggesting here that all decadal sea level variability is related to TWS, but do find TWS variability to play a significant role in sea level changes on the timescale of a decade.»

Third, in «ENSO - Forced Variability of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation», Newman et al state in the conclusions, «The PDO is dependent upon ENSO on all timescales.»

According to the researchers, natural variability plays a large role in the rate of global mean surface warming on decadal time scales.

And a better understanding of North Atlantic Ocean dynamics is central to understanding Pacific Ocean variability and vital in predicting how global mean temperatures may evolve on decadal timescales.