Bob, does anyone have readily available references
on deep ocean heat?
I believe Trenberth's travesty email highlighted the confusion
on deeper ocean heat uptake.
Not exact matches
That wind - driven circulation change leads to cooler
ocean temperatures
on the surface of the eastern Pacific, and more
heat being mixed in and stored in the western Pacific down to about 300 meters (984 feet)
deep, said England.
This
heating ought to be weak, but some unknown process seems to be amplifying it, possibly enough to melt a
deep ocean of liquid water
on Enceladus, or maybe only enough to form smaller pools of water within the moon's icy shell.
Some glaciers
on the perimeter of West Antarctica are receiving increased
heat from
deep, warm
ocean currents, which melt ice from the grounding line, releasing the brake and causing the glaciers to flow and shed icebergs into the
ocean more quickly.
The model therefore reinforces the idea that there is strong
heat production in Enceladus's
deep interior that may power the hydrothermal vents
on the
ocean floor.
With
heat, water and nutrients, subsurface Europa could resemble the
deep - sea
ocean vents
on Earth that support vast ecosystems.
Europa has a global
ocean locked away beneath a crust of ice;
deep below, the moon's internal
heat might create hospitable conditions, akin to hydrothermal vents at the bottom of the mid-Atlantic ridge and East Pacific Rise
on Earth.
The subsurface
oceans that are believed to exist
on Europa and Enceladus, would have conditions similar to the
deep oceans of Earth where tardigrades are found, volcanic vents providing
heat in an environment devoid of light.
Potential Europan habitats include
deep - sea colonies based
on heat - loving bacteria like those found around hydrothermal vents
on Earth's
ocean floor.
Thus, during an El - Nino, much of the
heat content of the Indo - Pacific warm pool moves from being too
deep for surface measurements to detect, to being spread out
on the surface of the
ocean, where surface measurements can detect it.
Dr Peter Stott, commenting
on Gavin's study in the Guardian, http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jun/04/global-warming-hasnt-paused-study-finds says the term slowdown is valid because the past 15 years might have been still hotter were it not for natural variations like
deep ocean heat uptake.
Deep ocean heat and carbon storage are dependent
on heat transfers driven by mesoscale eddy mixing.
During a postdoctoral fellowship at MIT, Cambridge USA, his research interest focused
on the interaction between
ocean eddies and
deep convection regions and their respective
heat and density transports.
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Some
heat is being transferred to the
deeper ocean by wind changes, reducing the rate of increase in the upper layer, which reduces the warming rate
on land.
In an email chat, Yair Rosenthal of Rutgers University and Braddock Linsley of Columbia University, whose related work was explored here in 2013, said the Argo analysis appeared to support their view that giant subtropical gyres are the place where
heat carried
on currents from the tropics descends into the
deeper ocean.
Kevin Trenberth, who has recently published a paper
on this topic, explains the increased
heat uptake in the
deep ocean:
We continue to «discover» vast, active volcanoes in the
deep oceans, could they not have an impact
on ocean heat content and via that the atmospheric
heat content?
To be sure,
on the centennial scale, some
heat does get buried several hundred meters
deep in the
ocean, at least in some limited parts of the
ocean.
Dr Peter Stott, commenting
on Gavin's study in the Guardian, http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jun/04/global-warming-hasnt-paused-study-finds says the term slowdown is valid because the past 15 years might have been still hotter were it not for natural variations like
deep ocean heat uptake.
Setting aside the effects of the
deep ocean, etc, — ie just using a single unified reservoir's
heat capacity — and using only fast feedbacks (I didn't introduce any slow feedbacks anywhere in this particular series of comments), the expectation based
on physics is that each delayed response T curve (each of which must correspond to a different value of
heat capacity, for the same ECS) must have a maximum or minimum when it intersects the instantaneous response curve (my Teq value)-- maximum if it was below Teq before, minimum if it was above — because it is always going toward Teq.
Here we quantify the effects of key parametric uncertainties and observational constraints
on thermosteric SLR projections using an Earth system model with a dynamic three - dimensional
ocean, which provides a mechanistic representation of
deep ocean processes and
heat uptake.
«Since the
ocean component of the climate system has by far the biggest
heat capacity», I've been wondering if the cool waters of the
deep ocean could be used to mitigate the effects of global warming for a few centuries until we have really depleated our carbon reserves and the system can begin to recover
on its own.
None of these will have any impact
on the Arctic sea ice as the
heat is trapped in the
deep ocean and is unable to communicate with the upper
ocean and sea ice.
Linsley: I think this shows we need to focus some more attention
on the places in the northern and southern hemispheres where the
deep ocean is talking to the atmosphere and absorbing this
heat and I think we need to spend some more time to understand how that water makes its way towards the Equator.
While such a «missing
heat» explanation for a lack of recent warming [i.e., Trenberth's argument that just can not find it yet] is theoretically possible, I find it rather unsatisfying basing an unwavering belief in eventual catastrophic global warming
on a
deep -
ocean mechanism so weak we can't even measure it [i.e., the coldest
deep ocean waters are actually warmer than they should be by thousandths of a degree]...
While record - breaking warming is being felt
on land, most of the extra
heat energy being trapped in our atmosphere is being stored
deep into our
oceans causing rapid changes and the decline of key ecosystems.
The demonstrated ability of GRACE to measure interannual OBP variability
on a global scale is unprecedented and has important implications for assessing
deep ocean heat content and
ocean dynamics.
Suggesting that the
deep ocean has sequestered the
heat and will eventually release it again sounds to me a lot like the competing hypothesis that the
oceans play the dominant role in regulating our climate and global temperature, something Bob Tisdale has been banging
on about for a long while, and seems to be gaining more and more traction.
Christy is correct to note that the model average warming trend (0.23 °C / decade for 1978 - 2011) is a bit higher than observations (0.17 °C / decade over the same timeframe), but that is because over the past decade virtually every natural influence
on global temperatures has acted in the cooling direction (i.e. an extended solar minimum, rising aerosols emissions, and increased
heat storage in the
deep oceans).
Building
on earlier work, the climate model examined by Meehl et al (2011) & (2013) demonstrated that hiatus decades (decades in the model with little or no surface warming) occurred when anomalous
heat was being taken up by the
deep ocean.
The idea that the
deep ocean can
heat while the surface does not is rather more massive conjecture than I would care to attempt — and based
on around a handful of datapoints for heavens sake.
rw (05:22:03): «The motions of the massive
oceans where
heat is moved between
deep layers and the surface provides variability
on time scales from years to centuries.
Whereas if the address the pause in a scientific manner, even if they dismiss it as for instance by saying the
heat is going into the
deep ocean, then they do seem more objective and people from everywhere
on the continuum of climate change beliefs will be more willing to listen.
Francisco (09:12:57): Go ahead and explain how additional
heat in the atmosphere moves from the atmosphere to the
ocean surface, and from there to the
deep oceans, ** without first producing any warming in the atmosphere or
on the
ocean surface water ** Just because you don't know how it can happen, does not mean that it is not happening, just that you don't understand how.
A leaked draft of the next major climate report from the U.N. cites numerous causes to explain the slowdown in warming: greater - than - expected ash from volcanoes, a decline in
heat from the sun, more
heat being absorbed by the
deep oceans, and so
on.
Because the
deep oceans receive no
heat input, at least not
on the scale of the circulation time, they are fairly uniformly at the temperature of the descending polar waters, even below the equator.
Since the surface and
deep ocean start at very different temperatures, and you only change surface
heating by a small percentage, you actually would have a starting time that was pretty far out
on the error function curve.
On your second point, here, my first reaction on seeing the unbelievably good match to temperature was to leap to the assumption that GISS E was burying heat in the deep ocean — or losing heat to some invisible sin
On your second point, here, my first reaction
on seeing the unbelievably good match to temperature was to leap to the assumption that GISS E was burying heat in the deep ocean — or losing heat to some invisible sin
on seeing the unbelievably good match to temperature was to leap to the assumption that GISS E was burying
heat in the
deep ocean — or losing
heat to some invisible sink.
Elsewhere
on this site there is a graph of overall
ocean heat content which is building indicating that while the sst is decreasing slightly the overall
ocean is warming, It is likely that this overall
ocean warming which has nothing to do with changes to the atmospheric temperature because it is the sea surface and not the
deep ocean that is in contact with the atmosphere is what is resulting in the overall rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration which is currenly increasing at 2ppmv / year.
The accessibility of
deep ocean heat to the climate system tells us that the equilibration time relevant to multidecadal climate sensitivity estimates is longer than an interval based
on upper
ocean measurements, and so sensitivity will be underestimated if only the shorter interval is used.
For global warming diagnosis, use
ocean heat content changes, recognizing that the
deeper ocean heating (i.e. below the long term thermocline) is mostly unavailable to affect weather
on multi-decadal time periods).
Cp is the total
heat capacity of a column of
ocean water 1 m ^ 2
on top and h meters
deep.
If
heating at the surface is dangerous to societies and ecosystems and land ice and SLR and so
on and so
on then instinctively it seems that
deep in the
ocean is a less worrying place for it.
The motions of the massive
oceans where
heat is moved between
deep layers and the surface provides variability
on time scales from years to centuries.
The MIT model permits one to systematically vary the model's climate sensitivity (by varying the strength of the cloud feedback) and rate of mixing of
heat into the
deep ocean and determine how the goodness - of - fit with observations depends
on these factors.
Jim D, summary: the
heat can't be mesured
on the surface, because it's hiding in the
deep oceans.
These measurements could allow climatologists to determine the role of the solar and radiative forcings
on the increase in
heat content of the late 20th century relative to that of the
deep ocean circulation.
On an earlier thread I made a back - of - envelope calculation that, for the
deep ocean to «suck» all the
heat down from the surface, so that the sea surface layer and troposphere were nowhere more than 3C, the mean temperature of the
deep ocean would need to increase only 0.4 C. Maybe someone could check this.