Sentences with phrase «on emission projections»

The environmental benefit of the first phase may be limited due to excessive allocation of allowances in some Member States and some sectors, due mainly to a reliance on emission projections before verified emissions data became available under the EU ETS.

Not exact matches

The findings «don't necessarily suggest future emissions will generally be higher or lower than current projections, but they suggest that this will depend more sensitively on how exactly economies grow (or shrink),» he said.

Overly optimistic projections of future oil supply, which are much higher than the latest NEB projections and don't consider the Alberta government's cap on oil sands emissions imposed by its Climate Leadership Plan.

The long - term warming over the 21st century, however, is strongly influenced by the future rate of emissions, and the projections cover a wide variety of scenarios, ranging from very rapid to more modest economic growth and from more to less dependence on fossil fuels.

This critical question is addressed using simulations from climate models based on projections of future emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols.

The RGGI program also might not actually curb emissions, because power plants are already emitting less than the proposed cap — due to take effect on January 1, 2009, and based on projections from 2005 — thanks to slower than anticipated growth in electricity generation.

The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, on mitigating emissions, finds a few glimmers of hope amid gloomy projections.

When this model was then applied to the future, they found that in a world of continuing high greenhouse gas emissions, the threshold for widespread drought - induced vascular damage would be crossed and initiate widespread tree deaths on average across climate model projections in the 2050s.

«The strong message here is that as we refine our estimates of carbon emissions we get closer to an accurate picture of what is going on and we can improve our climate projections and better inform policy on climate change.»

Since 1880, 531 gigatons have been emitted and emissions should not exceed 800 gigatons of C for a better than 50 - 50 chance at keeping global temperature rise below 2 degree C.) «We can not emit more than 1000 billion tons of carbon,» Stocker says, noting that the IPCC numbers on which such regional and global climate projections are made will be available to anyone.

Air pollutant emission inventories are essential in measuring the impact of pollution on air quality and the climate, as they are fed into atmospheric and climate models to make projections for the future.

Decisions made today are made in the context of confident projections of future warming with continued emissions, but clearly there is more to do to better characterize the human and economic consequences of delaying action on climate change and how to frame these issues in the context of other concerns.

IIASA researchers have been involved in greenhouse gas emission projections since the beginning of climate change research in the 1970s, including research on both historical emissions as well as projections for future emissions based on multiple scenarios of economic and population growth and technological change.

«Many of California's water managers are now working with projections of a one foot rise by mid-century and a three to four foot rise by 2100, slightly above the levels projected in the higher emissions scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)...»

The IPCC instead proffers «what if» projections of future climate that correspond to certain emissions scenarios,» Trenberth wrote in journal Nature's blog on June 4, 2007.

To derive the climate projections for this assessment, we employed 20 general circulation models to consider two scenarios of global carbon emissions: one where atmospheric greenhouse gases are stabilized by the end of the century and the other where it grows on its current path (the stabilization [RCP4.5] and business - as - usual [RCP8.5] emission scenarios, respectively).

Future emissions estimated based on OECD projections for economic growth and steady progress towards the upper (65 %) or lower (60 %) end of China's carbon intensity target for 2030.

Carbon Brief analysis, based on GDP projections from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, shows CO2 emissions could peak in 2027 at around 12.7 billion tonnes (red line, below), up from 9.8 Gt in 2014.

Climate change scenarios are based on projections of future greenhouse gas (particularly carbon dioxide) emissions and resulting atmospheric concentrations given various plausible but imagined combinations of how governments, societies, economies, and technologies will change in the future.

Projections based on 29 climate models suggest that the number of high wildfire potential days each year could increase by nearly 50 percent by 2050 if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated.

Known as a «co-benefit,» using state of the art models for human and natural systems, along with climate projections from the international community, the team was able for the first time to put a value on the global air pollution benefits of cutting greenhouse gas emissions over the 21st century.

Climate change projections were based on an ensemble of four General Circulation Models (UKMO HadCM3, MPIM ECHAM5, CSIRO MK3.5 and GFDL CM2.1), downscaled to 10 minutes [32], considering three emissions scenarios (B2, A1B and A2) for 1975 (mean 1961 — 1990), 2050 (mean 2041 — 2060) and 2090 (mean 2081 — 2100).

Differences in projections of warming by the end of the century appear to be related to assumptions made on emission trajectories and the ambitiousness of climate policies beyond 2030 rather than differences in methodology or climate modeling.

This isn't news to top climate scientists around the world (see Hadley Center: «Catastrophic» 5 — 7 °C warming by 2100 on current emissions path) or even to top climate scientists in this country (see US Geological Survey stunner: Sea - level rise in 2100 will likely «substantially exceed» IPCC projections, SW faces «permanent drying») and certainly not to people who follow the scientific literature, like Climate Progress readers (see Study: Water - vapor feedback is «strong and positive,» so we face «warming of several degrees Celsius»).

I think «the IPCC projections are not conditioned upon assumptions about policies being implemented related to emissions» is wrong, since there are a variety of projections, which are conditioned explicitly on the emission scenarios.

If bettors expect that emissions reductions will have a discernable influence on GAT over this period, then it should be apparent in the market value for GAT, which would be less than the IPCC's non-policy mid-point projection.

Chris Field, the director of the department of global ecology for the Carnegie Institution, was widely cited for warning last month that emissions of greenhouse gases were already exceeding recent projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, of which he was a member.

We analyzed the effect of a medium - high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 in IPCC 2000) and included updated projections of sea - level rise based on work by Rahmstorf (Science 315 (5810): 36emissions scenario (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 in IPCC 2000) and included updated projections of sea - level rise based on work by Rahmstorf (Science 315 (5810): 36Emissions Scenarios A2 in IPCC 2000) and included updated projections of sea - level rise based on work by Rahmstorf (Science 315 (5810): 368, 2007).

Alternatively, you can create your own CO2 concentration projections based on your own emission and ocean / biosphere sink / source scenarios using this carbon cycle applet created by Galen McKinley at Madison, which can then be integrated into EdGCM.

page 30: «Current carbon dioxide emissions are, in fact, above the highest emissions scenario developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), implying that if we stay the current course, we're heading for even larger warming than the highest projections from the IPCC.»

As for CO2 concentrations, i find it interesting to note that they stay «on the tracks» of projections, while CO2 emissions seem to recently exceed emissions projections (see Global Carbon Project).

Sensitivity analysis shows that future fire potential depends on many factors such as climate model and emission scenario used for climate change projection.

The projections are based on a midrange scenario for a rise in the heat - trapping emissions linked to global warming.

When talking to the media, some have been tempted to push beyond what the science supports — focusing on the high end of projections of global temperatures in 2100 or highlighting the scarier scenarios for emissions of greenhouse gases.

Current attempts by national governments worldwide to control industrial CO2 emissions following the recommendations of the IPCC could be viewed within the scientific paradigm as the projection of a large scale experiment on the earth's climate system to validate the hypothesis that anthropogenic CO2 emissions through the burning of fossil fuels and land use changes (inter alia) are a major factor driving climate change.

April 21: «碳在中国的未来 (The Future of Carbon in China)» by John Romankiewicz, New Energy Finance, providing an overview on the demand projection for offsets from Chinese emissions reduction projects and look at the current outlook for CDM and disucssing the potential of domestic markets for credits (carbon and otherwise) based on China's NAMA action.

Specifically, if sulphur emissions as estimated in Stern D. I. (2005) «Global sulfur emissions from 1850 to 2000», Chemosphere 58, 163 - 175 and the database supporting that paper are substituted for those that were used to produce the SRES and / or ABARE projections, what is the effect on the global mean temperature up to now, and the projected increase between now and 2030?

Of course I realise that projections of climate change are dependent on changes in radiative forcing, but projections of radiative forcing are in turn depend on projections of emissions.

Interestingly, the recent ABARE AP6 reference emission scenario gives an upper temperature almost as high in 2030 (0.05 Â °C lower and it is largely based on IEA projections).

The best estimates I have been able to find of sulphur emissions — those by Stern (2003), cited in van Vuuren and O'Neill, «The Consistency of IPCC's SRES Scenarios to Recent Literature and Recent Projections», «Climatic Change», March 2006: Table VI on p. 38 — show a steep drop in the first half of the 1990s to a level comparable to that projected in the A1T scenario for 2030.

On the other hand, projections show emissions are unlikely to reach Oregon's 2020 goal of 10 percent below this 1990 mark.

The Royal Society report includes references to Clark et al, 2016 in Nature Climate Change, suggesting the final sea level rise on millennia timescale caused by anthropogenic climate change (partly depending on future emissions) lies in a range between 29 to 55 metres and to DeConto & Pollard, 2016 in Nature, a study suggesting hydro - fracturing and ice cliff collapse around Antarctic ice sheets increases high end projection for sea level rise by 2100 to ± 2 metres.

The IPCC TAR produced global temperature projections based on a number of possible greenhouse gas emissions scenarios from their Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES).

This rise is larger and probably faster than any such change over the past 9,000 years.Climate models are far from perfect, and they rely on projections of future greenhouse gas emissions that are far from certain.

Climate projections based on energy - economic emissions scenarios show that, in the best case, warming will peak close to 1.5 C by mid-century before slowly declining to below this level.

As for Hansen's scenarios, emissions have followed Hansen's scenario B, so observations should be compared to scenario B not A. Hansen's projections were based on a climate sensitivity of over 4C.

On the other hand the Atmospheric CO2 content did not rise as predicted by Hansen and even though the world has exceeded the emissions level of scenario A; the concentration has not followed suit and is below the scenario A projection.

The IPCC model projections of future warming based on the varios SRES and human emissions only (both GHG warming and aerosol cooling, but no natural influences) are shown in Figure 6.

In order to compare their projections with actual emissions I had to manually scale bars on their figures.

As reported by other flora wide studies [20]--[21], our projections of range size change vary greatly based on future climate simulations, emission levels, and dispersal scenarios.