No Irrational Exuberance In an interview with CNBC's Squawk Box, former US Fed Chair Alan Greenspan says that stock markets are «significantly undervalued» based
on equity risk premiums (here's a good explanation of ERP).
Comments: «In addition to forecasting positive earnings growth this year (which we did not in 2012), we are also using a slightly higher multiple to reflect the positive impact of heavy central bank intervention
on the equity risk premium.»
Not exact matches
On the other hand, it is important to note that the spread between earnings price ratios and real interest rates are at near record levels, and that is a crude measure of the
equity risk premium.
With a declining
equity risk premium, investors should be diligent in minimizing the drags
on returns from taxes, transaction fees and mutual fund management fees.
They also consider the effect of U.S. and European economic policy uncertainty
on the U.S.
equity risk premium.
Chapter 15 — Implications for Companies advises companies
on adjusting their decision - making to an era of international projects and a lower
equity risk premium.
Moving toward limits
on interest deductibility in situations like many private
equity deals where debt has
equity - like
risk premiums would raise revenue and increase financial stability.
Currently, in the Euro Zone ex UK, the
equity risk premium is already above levels seen in the European debt crisis in 2011 and closing in
on the 2009 highs of close to 900 basis points.
The proposed momentum underlay chooses SPY, iShares S&P 500 Value (IVE) or iShares S&P 500 Growth (IVW) based
on highest five - month past return whenever the
equity risk premium is most undervalued.
So when you hear arguments that the «
equity risk premium» is wonderful, or that «stocks are cheap
on the basis of forward operating earnings,» understand that you are being fed a very thin gruel.
What happens if we extend the «Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy» (SACEVS) with a real estate
risk premium, derived from the yield
on equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT), represented by the FTSE NAREIT Equity REITs
equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT), represented by the FTSE NAREIT
Equity REITs
Equity REITs Index?
Many believe this dynamic can go
on, since rates are probably going to remain low, creating a still high «
equity risk premium» — the likely return from stocks over bonds.
As many people know, the Defined
Risk Strategy is composed of three primary elements: the long, buy - and - hold position in an
equity market, the hedge
on that long position, and the
premium collection trades.
This is since the
equity duration is based
on a derivative of the dividend discount model that uses long term interest rates plus an
equity risk premium, but these models also rely
on growth and inflation.
The majority of economists, however, agree that the concept of an
equity risk premium is valid: over the long term, markets compensate investors more for taking
on the greater
risk of investing in stocks.
The
equity risk premium is based
on the idea of the
risk - reward tradeoff.
The
equity risk premium is the difference between the return one should earn
on stocks and the return earned
on safe investments like bonds.
Implied required return
on equity, given how stocks were priced
on 1/1/14 = 8.00 % (a 5 %
equity risk premium on top of a 3 %
risk free rate)
The magnitude of the
equity risk premium and spread change from a discount to a
premium is the biggest since Oct. 2011, and the magnitude is the 8th largest
on record with the 5th biggest swing.
(ii) a return to
equity risk premiums of old, which were based
on the last 100 yrs?
Investors demand a
premium on their
equity investment return relative to lower
risk alternatives because their capital is more jeopardized, which leads to the
equity risk premium.
Beta, compared with the
equity risk premium, shows the amount of compensation
equity investors need for taking
on additional
risk.
We suggest that investors seeking higher returns consider boosting their overall
equity allocation rather than chasing the illusory size
premium in an attempt to add
risk on the cheap within the existing allocation.
Doing a very rough average, and considering that the NASDAQ was in a boom period for most of the study period, I am comfortable with a reduction in the US
equity risk premium over bonds down to 1 - 2 %
on average, and over cash to 3 - 4 %
on average.
A Review of the Evidence, in which Fernando Duarte and Carlo Rosa argue that stocks are cheap because the «Fed model» — the
equity risk premium measured as the difference between the forward operating earnings yield
on the S&P 500 and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield — is at a historic high.
Equities on the other hand are held because of an expected
risk premium of (say) 6 %.
The reverse mortgage called the Home
Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) and traditional FHA loans are both federally insured, and require that borrowers pay a mortgage insurance
premium in order to decrease
risk to lenders if the homeowner defaults
on the loan.
Bond Bear, Stock Bull Fortune magazine explained why Greenspan's comments that bond yields are going to rise and stocks are a bargain based
on current
equity risk premiums makes little sense.
The Global High Quality Dividend Yield (GHQDY) is a diversified,
risk - controlled strategy designed to target a yield
premium of 75 to 100 basis points relative to yields
on diversified global
equity indices.
If you are discounting the composite cash flows of a multinational company, the
equity risk premium should be a weighted average of the
equity risk premiums of the countries that the company operates in, with the weights based
on revenues or operating assets.
I doubt we have that many buyers willing to take
on «worst of
equity and debt
risks» at any reasonable yield
premium.
Third, there may be more opportunities for revisions in asset allocation based
on the changing
equity risk premium.
These policies are subject to market
risks and they allocate your
premium amounts in
equity and debt depending
on the type of funds you choose ranging from
equity, debt and balanced fund depending upon you
risk profile.
Rather than purchasing
equities outright, the insurance company typically enters into options contracts using some portion of the policy
premium, which enables them to pass
on the upside gains without the downside losses — but at the cost of an additional counterparty
risk.
Market Linked Returns: Unit linked plans offer the opportunity to earn market - linked returns as part of the
premiums is invested in market linked funds which invest in different market instruments - debt and
equity in varying proportions depending
on one's
risk appetite.
The
premium that you pay is divided into two parts; one goes towards coverage of
risk on your life and another part goes towards debt or
equity market instruments depending
on the option selected.
That assessment, though, is built
on the presumption that the forces that push up interest rates have no effect
on the other inputs into value - the
equity risk premium, earnings growth and cash flows, a dangerous delusion, since these variables are all connected together to a macro economy.