Not exact matches
To explain this apparent paradox, the researchers called upon a theory for how the
global carbon cycle,
atmospheric carbon dioxide and Earth's
temperature are linked
on geologic timescales.
The
temperatures in the central Pacific have the biggest impact
on the
global atmospheric circulation, and therefore the biggest impacts
on global weather, says Timmerman, who has been warning that this El Niño is likely to be a record - breaker.
Despite its smaller ash cloud, El Chichn emitted more than 40 times the volume of sulfur - rich gases produced by Mt. St. Helens, which revealed that the formation of
atmospheric sulfur aerosols has a more substantial effect
on global temperatures than simply the volume of ash produced during an eruption.
During the PETM,
atmospheric carbon dioxide more than doubled and
global temperatures rose by 5 degrees Celsius, an increase that is comparable with the change that may occur by later next century
on modern Earth.
Their findings, based
on output from four
global climate models of varying ocean and
atmospheric resolution, indicate that ocean
temperature in the U.S. Northeast Shelf is projected to warm twice as fast as previously projected and almost three times faster than the
global average.
Yet there is no doubt that research into
atmospheric aerosols is becoming increasingly important due to the effects that they can have
on the
global temperature of Earth, given that solar radiation is the main source of energy for Earth - Atmosphere system.
«Human influence is so dominant now,» Baker asserts, «that whatever is going to go
on in the tropics has much less to do with sea surface
temperatures and the earth's orbital parameters and much more to do with deforestation, increasing
atmospheric carbon dioxide and
global warming.»
It is well - established in the scientific community that increases in
atmospheric CO2 levels result in
global warming, but the magnitude of the effect may vary depending
on average
global temperature.
Lord Monckton made up data
on atmospheric CO2 concentration and
global mean
temperature that he claimed were IPCC predictions.
Hi Andrew, Paper you may have, but couldn't find
on «The phase relation between
atmospheric carbon dioxide and
global temperature» CO2 lagging temp change, which really turns the entire AGW argument
on its head: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818112001658 Highlights: ► Changes in
global atmospheric CO2 are lagging 11 — 12 months behind changes in
global sea surface
temperature ► Changes in
atmospheric CO2 are not tracking changes in human emissions.
Much study has focused
on the effects these rising carbon dioxide levels could have
on weather patterns and
global temperatures, but could elevated
atmospheric CO2 levels negatively affect the nutritional value of the food we grow?
Global positioning satellites (GPS); remote sensing for water, minerals, and crop and land management; weather satellites, arms treaty verifications; high -
temperature, light - weight materials; revolutionary medical procedures and equipment; pagers, beepers, and television and internet to remote areas of the world; geographic information systems (GIS) and algorithms used to handle huge, complex data sets; physiologic monitoring and miniaturization;
atmospheric and ecological monitoring; and insight into our planet's geological history and future — the list goes
on and
on.
Some
global warming «skeptics» argue that the Earth's climate sensitivity is so low that a doubling of
atmospheric CO2 will result in a surface
temperature change
on the order of 1 °C or less, and that therefore
global warming is nothing to worry about.
Future
global temperature change should depend mainly
on atmospheric CO2, at least if fossil fuel emissions remain high.
The link between
global temperature and rate of sea level change provides a brilliant opportunity for cross-validation of these two parameters over the last several millenia (one might add - in the relationship between
atmospheric [CO2] and Earth
temperature in the period before any significant human impact
on [CO2]-RRB-.
As the authors point out, even if the whole story comes down to precipitation changes which favor ablation, the persistence of these conditions throughout the 20th century still might be an indirect effect of
global warming, via the remote effect of sea surface
temperature on atmospheric circulation.
I am not assuming — there is overwhelming evidence (from copious data, much of which can be found
on or linked to from this web site) that
global temperatures are rising at a rate that may soon seriously disrupt human civilization, and that the best explanation for the cause of that projection (based
on even more data) is human - driven, rising
atmospheric CO2 levels.
But the pause has persisted, sparking a minor crisis of confidence in the field...
On a chart of
global atmospheric temperatures, the hiatus stands in stark contrast to the rapid warming of the two decades that preceded it.
The Advocates and the Opponents of
global warming struggle to agree even
on the reliability of the measurements of
atmospheric temperatures.
We collectively need to demand that there is no acceptable response to climate change other than strong emission reductions, ensuring that
atmospheric concentrations of CO2 are returned to 350ppm levels,
global temperature rise is kept (at the maximum) 2 °C and, even better, 1.5 °C — to do that, as was emphasized
on numerous occasions, we need a F.A.B. climate deal: Fair, Ambitious, and (perhaps most importantly) Binding.
http://climate.nasa.gov/news/1141/: «Norman Loeb, an
atmospheric scientist at NASA's Langley Research Center, recently gave a talk
on the «
global warming hiatus,» a slowdown in the rise of the
global mean surface air
temperature.
And the reason those 21st century emissions fail to make much of an impression
on global temperature is because the
atmospheric levels of GHG begin to decline when our emissions are cut (the cut required depending
on the gas in question).
The researchers found that reefs in the warmest part of the Pacific Ocean — holding some of the most diverse coral arrays
on Earth — have not been adversely affected as
global ocean and
atmospheric temperatures have risen since 1980.
In the same tone as the last post regarding
atmospheric contaminants, have to wonder whether an era of widespread constant combustion across the globe, and all the waste heat from that combustion, would have any effect
on the
global mean
temperature.
Considering that the mechanism of the «natural AMO» is so poorly understood, there's no justification for immediately blaming increases in hurricane activity
on it while entirely ignoring
global warming effects
on sea surface
temperatures (and
atmospheric moisture), for which very clear mechanisms do exist.
«Climate sensitivity» remains a subject of intense investigation, and what counts as hellish is a matter of judgment, but United Nations climate negotiators have settled
on a goal to limit
atmospheric carbon dioxide to 450 parts per million, which would cause the
global mean
temperature to peak no more than 3.6 °F above preindustrial levels.
But the evidence shows this can't be true;
temperature changes before CO2 in every record of any duration for any time period; CO2 variability does not correlate with
temperature at any point in the last 600 million years;
atmospheric CO2 levels are currently at the lowest level in that period; in the 20th century most warming occurred before 1940 when human production of CO2 was very small; human production of CO2 increased the most after 1940 but
global temperatures declined to 1985; from 2000
global temperatures declined while CO2 levels increased; and any reduction in CO2 threatens plant life, oxygen production, and therefore all life
on the planet.
Climate alarm depends
on several gloomy assumptions — about how fast emissions will increase, how fast
atmospheric concentrations will rise, how much
global temperatures will rise, how warming will affect ice sheet dynamics and sea - level rise, how warming will affect weather patterns, how the latter will affect agriculture and other economic activities, and how all climate change impacts will affect public health and welfare.
The results of the analysis demonstrate that relative to the reference case, projected
atmospheric CO2 concentrations are estimated by 2100 to be reduced by 3.29 to 3.68 part per million by volume (ppmv),
global mean
temperature is estimated to be reduced by 0.0076 to 0.0184 °C, and sea - level rise is projected to be reduced by approximately 0.074 — 0.166 cm, based
on a range of climate sensitivities.
People simply fail to look at the most basic of radiative physics in assessing the impact of
atmospheric CO2
on global surface
temperature.
«Using data series
on atmospheric carbon dioxide and
global temperatures we investigate the phase relation (leads / lags) between these for the period January 1980 to December 2011.
(8) Since at least 1980 changes in
global temperature, and presumably especially southern ocean
temperature, appear to represent a major control
on changes in
atmospheric CO2.»
Previously, an analysis
on the
global satellite
temperature dataset found that
atmospheric global warming has actually been decelerating since the Super El Niño event of 1997 - 1998.
But of course the pace of the
temperature trend also depends
on the
global future emissions outlook and
on remaining uncertainties surrounding climate sensitivity — or the politically most relevant metric «Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity» (ECS), the amount of warming expected
on a decades timescale after doubling of the
atmospheric CO2 concentration.
This adjacent plot of 5 - year
temperature change versus 5 - year
atmospheric CO2 level change is based
on the most recent empirical evidence published by the government's GISS / NASA scientists (and they happen to be some of the largest proponents of chicken little
global warming calamities).
The DICE model attempts to quantify how the
atmospheric concentration of CO2 negatively affects economic output through its impact
on global average surface
temperature.
-- Susan Solomon, Nature The Long Thaw is written for anyone who wishes to know what cutting - edge science tells us about the modern issue of
global warming and its effects
on the pathways of
atmospheric chemistry, as well as
global and regional
temperatures, rainfall, sea level, Arctic sea - ice coverage, melting of the continental ice sheets, cyclonic storm frequency and intensity and ocean acidification.
Comment
on» The phase relation between
atmospheric carbon dioxide and
global temperature» by Humlum, Stordahl and Solheim.
However, a clear understanding of how national emissions reductions commitments affect
global climate change impacts requires an understanding of complex relationships between
atmospheric ghg concentrations, likely
global temperature changes in response to ghg
atmospheric concentrations, rates of ghg emissions reductions over time and all of this requires making assumptions about how much CO2 from emissions will remain in the atmosphere, how sensitive the
global climate change is to
atmospheric ghg concentrations, and when the international community begins to get
on a serious emissions reduction pathway guided by equity considerations.
Unless more CO2 from human sources could increase total
atmospheric density it could not have a significant effect
on global tropospheric
temperature.
Comparison of
global lower troposphere
temperature anomaly over the oceans (blue line) to a model based
on the first derivative of
atmospheric CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa (red line).
So even assuming that reductions of human - induced CO2 emissions would have any effect
on atmospheric CO2 levels, the reductions would not influence
global temperatures according to the Wallace et al., 2016 study.
Tamino has a new and unusually good — even by his high standards — post
on why there is no «hiatus» even in
atmospheric global temperatures.
Requires the President, if the NAS report finds that emission reduction targets are not
on schedule or that
global actions will not maintain safe
global average surface
temperature and
atmospheric GHG concentration thresholds, to submit a plan by July 1, 2015, to Congress identifying domestic and international actions that will achieve necessary additional GHG reductions.
In fact, the best current studies show that increases in
atmospheric CO2 levels have no significant effects
on global temperatures and encourage plant growth.
m (that's the computer - predicted radiative forcing
on a doubling of
atmospheric CO2) is only enough to increase the mean
global surface
temperature by 0.68 degC at a baseline
temperature of 288K according to the Stefan - Boltzmann law.
Type 3 dynamic downscaling takes lateral boundary conditions from a
global model prediction forced by specified real world surface boundary conditions, such as for seasonal weather predictions based
on observed sea surface
temperatures, but the initial observed
atmospheric conditions in the
global model are forgotten.
But what if decreases in
atmospheric CO2 levels have no significant effect
on global temperatures?
«The authors write that «the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring fluctuation,» whereby «
on a timescale of two to seven years, the eastern equatorial Pacific climate varies between anomalously cold (La Niña) and warm (El Niño) conditions,» and that «these swings in
temperature are accompanied by changes in the structure of the subsurface ocean, variability in the strength of the equatorial easterly trade winds, shifts in the position of
atmospheric convection, and
global teleconnection patterns associated with these changes that lead to variations in rainfall and weather patterns in many parts of the world,» which end up affecting «ecosystems, agriculture, freshwater supplies, hurricanes and other severe weather events worldwide.»»
In fact, recent research shows that changes in
atmospheric CO2 levels have no significant effect
on global temperatures.