How much warmer the globe has become compared to 1998 can only really be commented on after an El Nino influence
on the global average surface temperatures similar to the 1997 - 1998 El Nino occurs, and other transient or cyclical influences on the «annual average» are considered.
The DICE model attempts to quantify how the atmospheric concentration of CO2 negatively affects economic output through its impact
on global average surface temperature.
Based on the Cohen et al paper it's likely that leaving out the most volatile data series would in the present case result in a time series where warming continues with less plateauing than we see in the existing data
on global average surface temperature.
Globally, scientists believe that worldwide forest clearing since the 1700s has had a small net cooling effect
on global average surface temperature.
IMHO the emphasis
on global average surface temperature in recent times, while understandable (if it really does rise 3 + K this century, the emphasis will have been justified) distracts from other issues that are just as important for local climate (which is what we all actually experience).
Not exact matches
The results show that even though there has been a slowdown in the warming of the
global average temperatures on the
surface of Earth, the warming has continued strongly throughout the troposphere except for a very thin layer at around 14 - 15 km above the
surface of Earth where it has warmed slightly less.
A striking characteristic of the most recent 21st Century negative phase of the IPO is that
on this occasion
global average surface temperatures continued to rise, just at a slower rate.
The
global average temperature over land and ocean
surfaces for January to October 2014 was the highest
on record, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Ocean Only: The August
global sea
surface temperature was 1.17 °F (0.65 °C) above the 20th century
average of 61.4 °F (16.4 °C), the highest
on record for August.
Ocean Only: The
global ocean
surface temperature for the year to date was 0.99 °F (0.55 °C) above
average, tying with 2010 as the second warmest such period
on record, behind only 1998.
Ocean Only: The June - August
global sea
surface temperature was 1.13 °F (0.63 °C), above the 20th century
average of 61.5 °F (16.4 °C), the highest for June - August
on record.
Of course, while short - term changes in sea level can be predicted fairly accurately based
on the motions of the moon and sun, it is a lot harder predicting the ups and downs of the
average global surface temperature — there is a lot of noise, or natural variation, in the system.
Although the rising
average global surface temperature is an indicator of the degree of disruption that we have imposed
on the
global climate system, what's actually happening involves changes in circulation patterns, changes in precipitation patterns, and changes in extremes.
These shifts also have a profound effect
on the
average global surface air
temperature of Earth.
The
average global temperature across land
surfaces was 1.31 °C (2.36 °F) above the 20th century
average of 5.9 °C (42.6 °F), the fifth highest November
temperature on record.
For the oceans, the November
global sea
surface temperature was 0.84 °C (1.51 °F) above the 20th century
average of 15.8 °C (60.4 °F), the highest for November
on record, surpassing the previous record set last year by 0.20 °C (0.36 °F).
Separately, the
global land
surface temperature was 1.89 °C (3.40 °F) above
average, the highest
on record for December, surpassing the previous record set in 2006 by 0.48 °C (0.86 °F).
global warming The increase in Earth's
surface air
temperatures,
on average, across the globe and over decades.
Similar to the March — May
global land and ocean
surface temperature, the March — May land
surface temperature was also the fourth highest three - month departure from
average for any three - month period
on record.
During the final month, the December combined
global land and ocean
average surface temperature was the highest
on record for any month in the 136 - year record.
Ray, I think Lee Grable's point is important: The fact that we use the term «
global temperature» to mean the
average temperature on a two - dimensional
surface rather than the three - dimensional ocean plus land plus atmosphere system of the earth has the potential to allow confusion.
Global average surface temperatures increased
on average by about 0.6 degrees Celsius over the period 1956 - 2006.
... Polar amplification explains in part why Greenland Ice Sheet and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet appear to be highly sensitive to relatively small increases in CO2 concentration and
global mean
temperature... Polar amplification occurs if the magnitude of zonally
averaged surface temperature change at high latitudes exceeds the globally
averaged temperature change, in response to climate forcings and
on time scales greater than the annual cycle.
-- The combined
global land and ocean
average surface temperature for the December — February period was 0.41 °C (0.74 °F) above the 20th century
average of 12.1 °C (53.8 °F), making it the 17th warmest such period
on record and the coolest December — February since 2008.
The
global ocean
surface temperature for the year to date was 0.34 °C (0.61 °F) above the 20th century
average and was the 14th warmest such period
on record.
The
global ocean
surface temperature for the same period was 0.33 °C (0.59 °F) above the 20th century
average and was the 15th warmest such period
on record.
«The combined
average temperature over
global land and ocean
surfaces tied with 2010 as the highest
on record for April, at 58.09 °F (14.47 °C) or 1.39 °F (0.77 °C) above the 20th century
average.»
«
On May 22nd, 2014,
global sea
surface temperature anomalies spiked to an amazing +1.25 degrees Celsius above the, already warmer than normal, 1979 to 2000
average.
My amateur spreadsheet tracking and projecting the monthly NASA GISS values suggests that while 2018 and 2019 are likely to be cooler than 2017, they may also be the last years
on Earth with
global average land and ocean
surface temperature anomaly below 1C above pre-industrial
average (using 1850 - 1900 proxy).
«The
average global temperature anomaly for combined land and ocean
surfaces for July (based
on preliminary data) was 1.1 degrees F (0.6 degrees C) above the 1880 - 2004 long - term mean.
Global average temperature is lower during glacial periods for two primary reasons: 1) there was only about 190 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere, and other major greenhouse gases (CH4 and N2O) were also lower 2) the earth
surface was more reflective, due to the presence of lots of ice and snow
on land, and lots more sea ice than today (that is, the albedo was higher).
Data from the Met Office Hadley Centre and the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit for
global average near -
surface temperatures confirm that 2017 was the warmest year
on record without the influence of warming from El Niño.
In 2013, the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report stated a clear expert consensus that: «It is extremely likely [defined as 95 - 100 % certainty] that more than half of the observed increase in
global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic [human - caused] increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together.»
Such reports could be
on topics like climate change's influence
on hurricanes, the so - called «pause» in the increase of
average global surface temperatures or the climate implications of natural gas.
This February's sea
surface temperatures were 1.46 degrees above
average, which means the past nine months have been the nine highest monthly
global ocean
temperature departures
on record.
Their work is a big step forward in helping to solve the greatest puzzle of current climate change research — why
global average surface temperatures, while still
on an upward trend, have risen more slowly in the past 10 to fifteen years than previously.
The challenge will be settled using the NASA GISS mean
global land
surface temperatures for the conventional climate
averaging period (defined by the World Meteorological Organization as 30 years) ending
on December 31, 2016.
On a longer time scale,
global average surface temperatures have risen at a rate of about 0.70 °C per century.
Requires the President, if the NAS report finds that emission reduction targets are not
on schedule or that
global actions will not maintain safe
global average surface temperature and atmospheric GHG concentration thresholds, to submit a plan by July 1, 2015, to Congress identifying domestic and international actions that will achieve necessary additional GHG reductions.
Their thinking
on «detection» seems to be that there is such a thing as «natural» variability in the
average global surface temperature (agst) and such a thing as «unnatural» variability.»
On the previous sea
surface temperature thread, I stated «Do you for one minute believe that the uncertainty in
global average sea
surface temperature in the 19th century is 0.3 C?
Clearly, to use a single value (the
global average annual
average surface temperature trend) to characterize
global warming is a naive approach and is misleading policymakers
on the actual complexity of the climate system.
They clearly have not «proved» skill at predicting in a hindcast mode, changes in climate statistics
on the regional scale, and even in terms of the
global average surface temperature trend, in recent years they have overstated the positive trend.
Similarly, see Roger Pielke Sr. posts
on «Global Average Surface Temperature» Especially: Climate Science Myths And Misconceptions — Post # 1 On The Global Annual Average Surface Temperature Tre
on «
Global Average Surface Temperature» Especially: Climate Science Myths And Misconceptions — Post # 1
On The Global Annual Average Surface Temperature Tre
On The
Global Annual
Average Surface Temperature Trend
There is a major question in my mind of the wisdom of using a «
global»
surface temperature to begin with and a «global» surface temperature based on a SST which is more related to Tmin averaged with a land based «Surface» temperature that is based on T Ave.. So instead of blindly quoting nonsense, I actually try to verify using all the data that is ava
surface temperature to begin with and a «
global»
surface temperature based on a SST which is more related to Tmin averaged with a land based «Surface» temperature that is based on T Ave.. So instead of blindly quoting nonsense, I actually try to verify using all the data that is ava
surface temperature based
on a SST which is more related to Tmin
averaged with a land based «
Surface» temperature that is based on T Ave.. So instead of blindly quoting nonsense, I actually try to verify using all the data that is ava
Surface»
temperature that is based
on T Ave.. So instead of blindly quoting nonsense, I actually try to verify using all the data that is available.
«claims that «
Global warming is the unusually rapid increase in Earth's
average surface temperature over the past century» are erroneous and indicative of either ignorance or duplicity
on the part of NASA's Earth Observatory, NASA's Climate Consensus page, The Daily Mail, the EPA and many others.»
Running twelve - month
averages of
global - mean and European - mean
surface air
temperature anomalies relative to 1981 - 2010, based
on monthly values from January 1979 to March 2018.
Running twelve - month
averages of
global - mean and European - mean
surface air
temperature anomalies relative to 1981 - 2010, based
on monthly values from January 1979 to April 2018.
Running twelve - month
averages of
global - mean and European - mean
surface air
temperature anomalies relative to 1981 - 2010, based
on monthly values from January 1979 to February 2018.
The NOAA National Climatic Data Center's annual summary posted
on January 15 says: «The 2000 - 2009 decade is the warmest
on record, with an
average global surface temperature of 0.54 deg C (0.96 deg F) above the 20th century
average.