Sentences with phrase «on global climate models»

«Their method of estimating depletion is based on indirect calculations based on global climate models,» he said.

The resulting estimates are less dependent on global climate models and allow more realistically for forcing uncertainties than similar estimates based on forcings diagnosed from simulations by such models.

Regional climate models rely on global climate models for their boundary conditions.

From my readings on Global Climate Models, it appears that often modelers are using aerosols as almost dummy variables.

On that note, I am going to look at this new blog with great interest on the Global Climate Models, and refrain from rhetoric:)

In order to understand the potential importance of the effect, let's look at what it could do to our understanding of climate: 1) It will have zero effect on the global climate models, because a) the constraints on these models are derived from other sources b) the effect is known and there are methods for dealing the errors they introduce c) the effect they introduce is local, not global, so they can not be responsible for the signal / trend we see, but would at most introduce noise into that signal 2) It will not alter the conclusion that the climate is changing or even the degree to which it is changing because of c) above and because that conclusion is supported by multiple additional lines of evidence, all of which are consistent with the trends shown in the land stations.

Previous studies based on global climate models indicated that the overturning circulation in the North Pacific and North Atlantic responded in opposite ways to major shifts in global climate.

These high - resolution projections, based on global climate models, predict when and where annual coral bleaching will occur.

If only modest action is taken to reign in greenhouse gas emissions, the model predicts that pikas will disappear from about 75 percent of sites by 2070 (51 to 88 percent, depending on the global climate model used).

With aggressive action to reduce greenhouse gases, the model predicts that only about 51 percent of sites will suffer local extinction (39 to 79 percent, depending on the global climate model).

A new method based on global climate model pressure gradients was developed for identifying coastal high - wind fire weather conditions, such as the Santa Ana Occurrence (SAO).

15 years later, those advocating major governmental policy based on global climate model predictions.wish the models had not exaggerated the future warming so greatly.

Research addressing this question relies on global climate model simulations based on a range of anticipated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios.

Not long ago, it would have taken several years to run a high - resolution simulation on a global climate model.

Depending on the global climate model (s) underpinning the projection, emergence timescales range between 120 and 550 years, reflecting a large uncertainty.

What appears to have happened, based on global climate model simulations run by Shakun et al., is not all that different from our previous explanation of the supposed CO2 lag - just a bit more nuanced.

Effects of bias in solar radiative transfer codes on global climate model simulations (Geophysical Research Letters, Vol.

Not exact matches

It modeled the implications for the company of a requirement for emissions to decline to levels consistent with a so - called «2 °C world» after 2030 and also looked at a number of alternative scenarios based on divergent ranges in global growth and trade, geopolitics, technological innovation and responses to climate change.

It would be like trying to model 1000 years of global climate change on a TRS - 80 computer when it takes a modern 16,000 processor supercomputer a week to process the data.

During a first postdoc, she focused on the theoretical side, producing a mathematical model complex enough to represent the physical processes at play yet simple enough that it could also be included in a global climate model, she says.

They used this data compilation to evaluate the quality of their regional atmospheric climate model, based on global climate projections that included several scenarios of anticipated climate change.

«But if, as global circulation models suggest, drying continues, our results provide evidence that this could degrade the Amazonian forest canopies, which would have cascading effects on global carbon and climate dynamics.»

Planning meetings for the Global Seed Vault in Norway spawned the idea of looking at average summer temperatures, which climate models can project relatively reliably and which have a large impact on crop yields — between 2.5 and 16 percent less wheat, corn, soy or other crops are produced for every 1.8 — degree F (1 — degree C) rise.

Smith and his former research assistant Andrew Mizrahi used a PNNL computer model, the Global Change Assessment Model, or GCAM, to evaluate the impact of reducing soot and methane emissions on Earth's climodel, the Global Change Assessment Model, or GCAM, to evaluate the impact of reducing soot and methane emissions on Earth's cliModel, or GCAM, to evaluate the impact of reducing soot and methane emissions on Earth's climate.

He wants to know why Earth's global climate models break down on Venus, which has an atmosphere composed of 97 percent carbon dioxide — and what that reveals about the hidden fine - tunings of Earth models.

The United Nations is setting up a body to monitor global ecology modeled on its influential climate panel.

On a basic level, global climate models are similar to today's weather forecasting tools, explains Jerry Meehl, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, and a leading climate modeler.

Global climate models need to account for what Meehl calls «slowly varying systems» — how warmer air gradually heats the ocean, for example, and what effect this warming ocean then has on the air.

And by carefully measuring and modeling the resulting changes in atmospheric composition, scientists could improve their estimate of how sensitive Earth's climate is to CO2, said lead author Joyce Penner, a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Michigan whose work focuses on improving global climate models and their ability to model the interplay between clouds and aerosol particles.

«The result is not a surprise, but if you look at the global climate models that have been used to analyze what the planet looked like 20,000 years ago — the same models used to predict global warming in the future — they are doing, on average, a very good job reproducing how cold it was in Antarctica,» said first author Kurt Cuffey, a glaciologist at the University of California, Berkeley, and professor of geography and of earth and planetary sciences.

Looking ahead, engineers have set their sights even higher, on computers a thousand times as fast as Tianhe - 1A that could model the global climate with unprecedented accuracy, simulate molecular interactions, and track terrorist activity.

The study was based on reconstructions and climate modelling of a period of global warming 56 million years ago.

Since this would also result in more particulate matter entering the atmosphere which in turn has an influence on cloud formation, regional and global climate models might have to be adapted accordingly.

Hertel and doctoral student Uris Baldos developed a combination of economic models — one that captures the main drivers of crop supply and demand and another that assesses food security based on caloric consumption — to predict how global food security from 2006 to 2050 could be affected by changes in population, income, bioenergy, agricultural productivity and climate.

Unfortunately, current simulation models, which combine global climate models with aerosol transport models, consistently underestimate the amount of these aerosols in the Arctic compared to actual measurements during the spring and winter seasons, making it difficult to accurately assess the impact of these substances on the climate.

But early on Jenkins realized that the global climate models are too coarse to tell much about what's going to happen in the Sahelian zone.

«Being based on climate records, this approach avoids any biases that might affect the sophisticated computer models that are commonly used for understanding global warming.»

So it is not surprising that while the inure than a dozen major global climate models in use around the world tend to agree on the broadest phenomena, they differ wildly when it comes to regional effects.

«When we look forward several decades, climate models predict such profound loss of Arctic sea ice that there's little doubt this will negatively affect polar bears throughout much of their range, because of their critical dependence on sea ice,» said Kristin Laidre, a researcher at the University of Washington's Polar Science Center in Seattle and co-author of a study on projections of the global polar bear population.

During a Friday morning session titled «Fire and Climate,» Meg Krawchuk, a UC Berkeley «pyrogeographer,» described her efforts to model the impacts of global warming on fire patterns across the world.

To model a world of ebbing and flowing burns, Krawchuk took historic fire data then mapped it forward using 16 models of changing climates from 2010 on, what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change calls global climate modelsClimate Change calls global climate modelsclimate models (GCM).

For example, when examining hurricanes and typhoons, the lack of a high - quality, long - term historical record, uncertainty regarding the impact of climate change on storm frequency and inability to accurately simulate these storms in most global climate models raises significant challenges when attributing assessing the impact of climate change on any single storm.

«Most climate models that incorporate vegetation are built on short - term observations, for example of photosynthesis, but they are used to predict long - term events,» said Bond - Lamberty, who works at the Joint Global Change Research Institute, a collaboration between PNNL and the University of Maryland in College Park, Md. «We need to understand forests in the long term, but forests change slowly and researchers don't live that long.»

Their findings, based on output from four global climate models of varying ocean and atmospheric resolution, indicate that ocean temperature in the U.S. Northeast Shelf is projected to warm twice as fast as previously projected and almost three times faster than the global average.

The global climate models assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which are used to project global and regional climate change, are coarse resolution models based on a roughly 100 - kilometer or 62 - mile grid, to simulate ocean and atmospheric dyclimate models assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which are used to project global and regional climate change, are coarse resolution models based on a roughly 100 - kilometer or 62 - mile grid, to simulate ocean and atmospheric dyClimate Change (IPCC), which are used to project global and regional climate change, are coarse resolution models based on a roughly 100 - kilometer or 62 - mile grid, to simulate ocean and atmospheric dyclimate change, are coarse resolution models based on a roughly 100 - kilometer or 62 - mile grid, to simulate ocean and atmospheric dynamics.

Other studies have resorted to modeling to understand the effects of contrails, which have shown that they can have an appreciable impact on global climate, despite their transient nature.

For Tom Osborne of Reading University, senior research scientist at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science who models the global impacts of climate change on agriculture, farmers have no choice; they have to adapt where they can and change where they can't.

Coastal sea ice formation takes place on relatively small scales, however, and is not captured well in global climate models, according to scientists at the University of California, Santa Cruz, who conducted the study.

We want our climate model to be representative of the processes going on, in order to be predictive of how carbon storage responds to global change.»

REDD + is included among technologies for negative emissions, which stand for a large share of the emission reductions in the climate models internationally agreed on to keep global warming below 2 °C.