Science tells us climate change has not had a discernible impact
on global hurricane activity.
Data on U.S. landfalling storms is only about 2 tenths of one percent of data we have
on global hurricanes over their whole lifetimes.
Not exact matches
He estimated that insured losses for the
global industry would total between $ 20 billion and $ 30 billion, which would put the storm
on a similar scale to
Hurricane Sandy, whose storm surge caused flooding in New York in 2012.
Starting at 6 p.m., we'll have
on Dr. Roy Spencer, a climatologist and former NASA scientist to tell us why
global warming isn't to blame for
hurricanes Harvey and Irma.
With
hurricanes raging and
global warming
on their minds, Gov. Andrew Cuomo joined forces with former Secretary of State John Kerry and California Gov. Jerry Brown
on Wednesday to discuss how some states are breaking from the Trump Administration and going it alone
on global warming.
On Sandy Anniversary, the Green Party calls for Full Employment through Climate Action By Howie Hawkins, Green Party Candidate for Governor On the second anniversary of Hurricane Sandy, New York needs to become a world leader in taking action on global warming by committing to a 100 % clean energy economy within 15 year
On Sandy Anniversary, the Green Party calls for Full Employment through Climate Action By Howie Hawkins, Green Party Candidate for Governor
On the second anniversary of Hurricane Sandy, New York needs to become a world leader in taking action on global warming by committing to a 100 % clean energy economy within 15 year
On the second anniversary of
Hurricane Sandy, New York needs to become a world leader in taking action
on global warming by committing to a 100 % clean energy economy within 15 year
on global warming by committing to a 100 % clean energy economy within 15 years.
On the second anniversary of Hurricane Sandy, New York needs to become a world leader in taking action on global warming by committing to a 100 % clean energy economy within 15 year
On the second anniversary of
Hurricane Sandy, New York needs to become a world leader in taking action
on global warming by committing to a 100 % clean energy economy within 15 year
on global warming by committing to a 100 % clean energy economy within 15 years.
Other experts say that the effect of
hurricanes on global warming would probably be minimal as only the largest storms are expected to get stronger.
Scientists already point to increased severity of
hurricanes on the East Coast, major Midwest floods, and shrinking glaciers in the West as proof of
global warming's onset.
For example, when examining
hurricanes and typhoons, the lack of a high - quality, long - term historical record, uncertainty regarding the impact of climate change
on storm frequency and inability to accurately simulate these storms in most
global climate models raises significant challenges when attributing assessing the impact of climate change
on any single storm.
On the other hand, as Emanuel emphasizes, there is no evidence that the
global frequency of
hurricanes is rising.
In the end, Mooney concludes, the evidence lands
on the side of those who believe that
hurricanes are changing along with
global warming.
There are a lot of things going
on — floods,
hurricanes, droughts, and whatever — that can't even be attributed to
global warming right now.
That record could help climatologists understand decade - and century - long variations in
hurricane patterns and begin to unravel the impact of
global warming
on storm cycles.
Others argue that
global warming brought
on by the increased production of greenhouse gasses will lead to larger
hurricane zones and more powerful storms.
While Heartland continues politicizing science, demonizing credible scientists and using tobacco industry tactics to forge doubt over
global warming, Americans are feeling the real toll climate change is already taking
on society, by increasing the severity of storms like
hurricane Sandy or pushing droughts, wildfires and heatwaves to new extremes.
And this is
on top of ongoing efforts by the administration aimed at «preventing scientists who believe there might be such a link [between
global warming and more intense
hurricanes] from speaking out.»
Though this is still a subject of active scientific research, current computer models of the atmosphere indicate that
hurricanes are more likely to become less frequent
on a
global basis, though the
hurricanes that do form may be more intense.
And when
Hurricane Alice landed, residents took a crash course
on the impact of
global climate change.
It was very unfortunate for the truck when
global warming gave the large body
on frame vehicles a bad name, so the automaker's advertising departments began marketing Sport Utility Vehicles, and everything was great until gas prices skyrocketed after
Hurricane Katrina and new car buyers were looking for 4 cylinder cars instead of V6s.
If recent headlines are a reliable barometer of the state of the world — «43 Missing Students, a Mass Grave and a Suspect: Mexico's Police»; «Egyptian Judges Drop All Charges against Mubarak»; «Boehner Says Obama's Immigration Action Damages Presidency»; «U.N. Panel Issues Its Starkest Warning Yet
on Global Warming» — then it seems that we are living in an age of intense violence, unbridled corruption, purposeful gridlock, and such persistent environmental degradation that frequent drought, flooding, and
hurricanes have become the new normal.
We appreciate your interest in our recent paper
on Atlantic
hurricane frequency and
global warming.
Accordingly, the book is very wide ranging topically, covering issues from the discovery of the puzzling roots of cholera's epidemiology, to the effects of large storms
on the behavior of the insurance industry, to the social disruptions arising from
hurricanes and warfare, to the roots of the problems with the
global economic system — and much in between.
On the issue of messaging, storms and warming, see a great post by Dan Kahan of Yale examining George Lakoff's assertion that «
global warming systemically caused
Hurricane Sandy.»
The second is related to the Storms and Climate Change post and is a perspective by Kevin Trenberth
on the potential for a
hurricanes and
global warming link.
Unfortunately for policymakers and the public, while the basic science pointing to a rising human influence
on climate is clear, many of the most important questions will remain surrounded by deep complexity and uncertainty for a long time to come: the pace at which seas will rise, the extent of warming from a certain buildup of greenhouse gases (climate sensitivity), the impact
on hurricanes, the particular effects in particular places (what
global warming means for Addis Ababa or Atlanta).
Dr. Christopher Landsea — past chairman of the American Meteorological Society's Committee
on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones — says «there are no known scientific studies that show a conclusive physical link between
global warming and observed
hurricane frequency and intensity.»
What we mean by premature is that there is no evidence in the literature to support a claim that
global warming has resulted in demonstrable effects
on hurricane impacts, whether they are measured in terms of economics or otherwise.
Finally, for another perspective
on hurricanes and
global warming, pretty consistent with that written here, see:
Do you really think the fact that waters are warmer and atmospheric moisture content is higher now due to man - made
global warming (not to mention the «blocking high» over Greenland due to Arctic climate change) may be less of an influence
on Hurricane Sandy than some other currently unobserved changes to our climate that occurred 3000 years ago?
There are some physics - based theories regarding the nature of climate change yes, but the ONLY way to test them is
on the basis of the sort of evidence that climate scientists have been collecting for many years now,
on, for example,
global temperatures, ocean temperatures, sea level, frequency of drought,
hurricanes, rainstorms, etc..
There was another twist to the
hurricanes /
global warming issue in Science Express
on Friday where a new paper from the Webster / Curry team just appeared.
If
hurricanes like this have hit with some regularity in the past (which they have), is it not jumping the gun a little to slap down a
global - warming tag
on it.
When discussing the influence of anthropogenic
global warming
on hurricane or tropical cyclone (TC) frequency and intensity (see e.g. here, here, and here), it is important to examine observed past trends.
4:38 p.m. Updated I read Mark Fischetti's piece
on global warming and
hurricanes in Scientific American just now, which points to a recent PNAS study finding «a statistically significant trend in the frequency of large surge events» from tropical cyclones in the Atlantic.
It depends
on the signal - to - noise ratio, so for
global temperature in recent decades 20 years has been about enough, for CO2 concentration 4 years is more than enough while for
hurricane frequency 50 years is probably too short.
The reactions to Katrina in over the past week illustrate that any statement by scientists
on hurricanes and
global warming carries with it political significance.
Kerry Emanuel, who's been studying Atlantic Ocean
hurricanes in the context of climate change for decades, spoke
on the Warm Regards podcast about the mix of subsidized seaside development and rising sea levels driven by
global warming.
After reading your post, Kerry Emanuel's website I feel strongly that there is a strong consensus
on hurricanes and
global warming in the scientific community (in spite of media reports and advocacy statements to the contrary).
However, I don't agree that Al Gore is sensationalizing
hurricanes — what Gore is saying is certainly in the realm of possibilities, and although Gore's general message is dead
on (and I do think is being confirmed by events such as rapid arctic melting), I don't expect 100 % certainty in his predictions (especially since it seems that the lessening of snow
on Mt. Kilimanjaro isn't due to
global warming.
We will at some point post something
on the climate /
hurricane arguments, but a basic fact is that there is a huge difference between claiming that
global warming trends will tend, statistically, to lead to more / larger
hurricanes, and attributing specific events in specific years to such causes.
On the
global warming context, it's worth noting that while sea surface temperatures are hot, a more important factor for
hurricane intensification (among many) is «tropical cyclone heat potential» (which includes the temperature of deeper layers of seawater that get churned up as a tropical storm passes).
«We can't blame the existence of a single
hurricane on global warming, just like a die weighted to roll sixes can't be blamed for any single roll of a six,» said Michael Mann, a physicist and the director of the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State University.
Climate Miscommunication The Union of Concerned Scientists, demonstrated a welcome nonpartisan approach to tracking misstatements
on human - driven
global warming with «Al Gore, Climate Science, and the Responsibility for Careful Communication,» its post
on unhelpful
hurricane hype from former Vice President Al Gore.
So in terms of near term impacts of
global warming, the risk of increased
hurricane activity is pretty high
on the list of things that the public is worried about.
On the other hand I like Dr Curries approach, which seem to have picked up a
global trend in cyclones, but I wont be surprised if cyclone studies including
hurricanes fall into Dr Lindzen's dolldrums (the only thing he constantly argues correctly is a diminishing equator to Pole temp difference slowing eveything down).
BTW, am I misremembering or has Emanuel said here for the first time that there's now a clear connection between
global warming and
hurricane activity (albeit not yet detectable in the North Atlantic basin when taken
on its own)?
Partisanship by NOAA administrators
on the climate change -
hurricane debate followed the partisanship by NOAA National Weather Service
on climate change - skeptic debate by 12 years which started just after the Gore book
on global warming book came out.
There have been various studies investigating the potential effect of long - term
global warming
on the number and strength of Atlantic - basin
hurricanes.
The present steady rise in tropical temperatures due to
global warming will have a major impact
on global climate and could intensify destructive
hurricanes like Katrina and Rita.