Sentences with phrase «on hurricane trends»
[UPDATE 2/23: I just Tweeted on an important update on experts» views on hurricane trends, or the lack thereof.]
https://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/ Not exact matches
«Eagle Ford production has been on an upward trend since it bottomed out in late 2016, although rig counts have been declining since reaching 86 on May 26,» Dallas Fed said, noting that the Eagle Ford output dropped in late August and early September due to curtailments amid Hurricane Harvey.
On all the measures, 2017 is trending near the top, explains Philip Klotzbach, an atmospheric scientist and hurricane expert at Colorado State University.
When discussing the influence of anthropogenic global warming on hurricane or tropical cyclone (TC) frequency and intensity (see e.g. here, here, and here), it is important to examine observed past trends.
4:38 p.m. Updated I read Mark Fischetti's piece on global warming and hurricanes in Scientific American just now, which points to a recent PNAS study finding «a statistically significant trend in the frequency of large surge events» from tropical cyclones in the Atlantic.
We will at some point post something on the climate / hurricane arguments, but a basic fact is that there is a huge difference between claiming that global warming trends will tend, statistically, to lead to more / larger hurricanes, and attributing specific events in specific years to such causes.
As we have discussed elsewhere on this site, statistical measures that focus on trends in the strongest category storms, maximum hurricane winds, and changes in minimum central pressures, suggest a systematic increase in the intensities of those storms that form.
Furthermore, the fact is (as shown in Figure 1) that hurricane intensity has increased in recent decades as SST has risen (at least in the North Atlantic for which trends are most reliable) and this prediction is based on fairly fundamental and robust thermodynamic arguments explored by Emanuel and others for decades now.
On the other hand I like Dr Curries approach, which seem to have picked up a global trend in cyclones, but I wont be surprised if cyclone studies including hurricanes fall into Dr Lindzen's dolldrums (the only thing he constantly argues correctly is a diminishing equator to Pole temp difference slowing eveything down).
(see C. Landsea on this at http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/20thCenturyHurricanes.html) The data to support that theory thus seems scantier than the data that supports an increasing trend in hurricane intensity, yet the NAO lnk was widely repeated on CNN withou much questioning.
[ANDY REVKIN notes: One reason for the statistical gridlock is the murkiness of the data on the things that matter most (hurricane trends over the past century, for instance).
We've criticized NOAA Hurricane Center folks before on certain issues (e.g. their attribution of recent Tropical Cyclone trends to the «AMO») but on this issue they are quite sound.
Click on the animated sequence of National Hurricane Center forecasts to see the easterly trend.)
Generally yes, but there has been a lot of new information learned since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (e.g., on trends in hurricane intensity, the accelerated melting back of Arctic sea ice, the intensifying deterioration of the edges of the Greenland Ice Sheet, etc.) and Gore's presentation of the science has been updated to account for these, drawing from what are the really highly reviewed and high quality papers by leading scientists.
He asked what the trend data on terrorism would have said in 2000 as an analogy to the lack of discernible trends in hurricanes, floods, tornadoes and drought.
If you don't believe that, then look at the series of charts below, which are taken from government sites, that depict trends in hurricanes, tornadoes, droughts and wildfires — all of which should be, according to environmentalists, on the uptrend.
The null hypothesis works the other way: in this case, the null hypothesis is that no trend exists in hurricanes in connection with observed 0.5 °C warming; if you can not reject that hypothesis, as the authors say you can't, then it is useless to linger on any theory of «how» (or why) it happens.
Analysis of UN IPCC Draft report: IPCC «shows almost complete reversal from AR4 on trends in drought, hurricanes, floods»
Scientists say the extreme rainfall events that feed these floods are on the rise for many parts of the world, and this year's hurricanes fit that trend.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported in its most recent scientific assessment that «[n] o robust trends in annual numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes... have been identified over the past 100 years in the North Atlantic basin,» and that there are «no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency.»
The second issue raised in our Science paper (now available free, see bottom of this post) is that perhaps there shouldn't yet have been substantial long - term trends in hurricane intensity — whether we would be able detect them above the natural variability or not — because until the last couple of decades, aerosol cooling effects on hurricanes have been counteracting the effects of greenhouse gas warming.
As noted previously on this blog, when hurricane damages are adjusted («normalized») to account for changes in population, per capita income, and the consumer price index, there is no long - term trend such as might indicate an increase in hurricane frequency or power related to global climate change.
He has also shown the effect of hurricanes of short duration, less than two or four days, on the trend of hurricanes over the past century.
I was pleased that you acknowledged that, as I had pointed out, the data on cat - 5 hurricanes shows no significant trend, an observation that was the main focus of my comments (at realClimate.org post # 212).
They claimed an upward trend but this was done by the dishonest use of a linear regression which made use of the temporary depression on all the records caused by the 1988 hurricane.
«SPM in a nutshell: Since we started in 1990 we were right about the Arctic, wrong about the Antarctic, wrong about the tropical troposphere, wrong about the surface, wrong about hurricanes, wrong about the Himalayas, wrong about sensitivity, clueless on clouds and useless on regional trends.
Regarding your blog entry on the V+S paper, one statement needs clarification: ``... hurricane intensity has increased in recent decades as SST has risen (at least in the North Atlantic for which trends are most reliable) and this prediction is based on fairly fundamental and robust thermodynamic arguments explored by Emanuel and others for decades now.»
«A. Besides the overall global trend of increasing hurricane intensity, the key issue of concern raised by our study is that the hurricane intensities in the North Atlantic for the last decade have been lower than elsewhere on the globe.
Several comments and replies (6 - 10) have been published regarding the new results, but one key question remains: Are the global tropical cyclone databases sufficiently reliable to ascertain long - term trends in tropical cyclone intensity, particularly in the frequency of extreme tropical cyclones (categories 4 and 5 on the Saffir - Simpson Hurricane Scale)?
Do hurricane researchers have any models, or direct methods, to measure how active a season may have been in, oh, say 1705, based on possible long duration climactic trends?
James» quote - «In the BAMS article, the authors criticize others for irresponsible public statements on global warming and praise their own caution, yet the press release they quote asserts an «increased risk» of category - 5 hurricanes threatening the southeastern U.S., but neither their own two articles, nor the data they claim to have used, show any such statistically significant trend.»
In the BAMS article, the authors criticize others for irresponsible public statements on global warming and praise their own caution, yet the press release they quote asserts an «increased risk» of category - 5 hurricanes threatening the southeastern U.S., but neither their own two articles, nor the data they claim to have used, show any such statistically significant trend.
I suggested, based on work available on NOAA websites, that the only reason there is an upward trend is that with satellites, we can detect hurricanes far in the ocean that would have been undetected previously.
I believe that warming forecasts have been substantially exaggerated (in part due to positive feedback assumptions) and that tales of current climate change trends are greatly exaggerated and based more on noting individual outlier events and not through real data on trends (see hurricanes, for example).