Sentences with phrase «on implied probabilities»

Based on the implied probabilities, that's essentially a decline of 40 %.

Based on implied probabilities, this indicates smart bettors believe Washington has better than a 62.83 % chance of advancing.

Not exact matches

As a result, the implied probability of 4 (or greater) rate hikes in 2016 (as predicted by the dot plot) dropped from 4.7 % on Wednesday to under 1 % on Friday.

Currently WIRP, which measures the implied probability of an interest rate hike between 0 and 100, sits around 18 percent for the Fed's meeting on Sept. 21.

That probability equates to implied odds of +101, meaning there might be slight value taking the underdog on the moneyline.

Note: The sum of these implied probabilities is 125.8 which means there is a roughly 25 cent vig on this prop bet.

A steam move triggered by Pinnacle on the Marlins at +112 caused the Giants to immediately move from -121 to -107, over a 3 % swing in implied probability.

Based on their 20/1 odds, the Thunder now have slightly less than a 5 % implied probability to win the title — sixth best in the league.

Although books still aren't sold on them as one of the top World Series contenders (implied probability goes from 9.1 % to 10 %), they do expect the addition of Quintana to help them topple the mighty Brewers and win the NL Central.

Alabama is the odds - on favorite to win the national championship and they're currently -650 on the moneyline for Saturday's game against Washington, which works out to an 86.7 % implied probability.

Based on those odds, there's a 14.29 % implied probability that Arrieta will become the sixth pitcher to throw multiple no - hitters in a season.

Based on these odds, there's a 59.18 % implied probability that the Lakers pick will land in the top 3 and a 46.51 % implied probability that it will land outside the top 3.

Bovada is taking a 15 % hold on this prop bet; however, when we account for juice we find the following implied probabilities for each player:

Based on the current moneyline, there's an 87.2 % implied probability that Alabama will beat Washington.

On Tuesday Porzingis -LRB--220) had a 66.1 % implied probability of being selected before Mudiay, while Russell -LRB--300) had a 71.43 % implied probability of being selected before Porzingis.

When we subtract the implied probability from the Westgate from our «true» probability, the result is a 21.01 % edge on the under.

The implied probability for nearly every division adds up to 114 %, which means the juice is only 14 - cents on this prop bet.

While other teams like the Rockets and Wizards have made big jumps on the odds list over the first month, their implied probabilities have only gone up by a couple percentage points.

Based on the current moneyline there's a 65.1 % implied probability that Atlanta will beat Green Bay.

Our research reveals that although Kentucky's probability to win the title moved from 34.6 % to 38.5 %, the value is still on taking the field at -120 That's because -120 equates with an implied probability of 54.55 % which is still slightly lower than 61.5 % chance we give the field of winning the title.

Like most weeks, this play is fading the public (just 11 % of tickets on the draw despite an implied probability of 31 %), as well as following some small reverse - line movement (+235 to +226).

That works out to an 16 % implied probability based on the odds — shockingly close to Silver's own final four predictions.

Crystal Palace's implied probability to win is 58 % vs. Sunderland, but only 34 % of tickets are on Crystal Palace.

For example, if the upsets had been the 12 - seeds over the 5 - seeds instead of the 14 - seeds over the 3 - seeds, the implied probability wouldn't have varied greatly, but more brackets would have picked them based on public perception and previous years» results.

Based on the current moneyline there's a 68.4 % implied probability that New England will beat Pittsburgh.

Based on the current odds, there's a 90.91 % implied probability that this game won't go into overtime.

Oklahoma is -4000 on the moneyline (implied probability: 97.6 % chance to win) against a bad Baylor team.

The implied probability that the team wins is 11.8 %, meaning there is value on Cleveland.

The implied probability of Eric Gordon winning is 90.0 % based on the odds at 5Dimes.

In other words, this tilt was pretty close to a coin flip despite the -300 (75 % implied probability) price tag on the Predators for the game.

The Texans are -670 on the moneyline, an 87.0 % implied probability of winning.

At +350 odds (implied probability of 22.2 %) there is no value on the Pats.

Based on «true» odds, that are the implied probability when you remove the juice from the betting lines, Kansas» chance of cutting down the nets has improved the most.

Using 5Dimes, gamblers can get an edge on «No» -420 (80.8 % implied probability).

Since the markets operate on uncertainties and probabilities, the algorithms presumably responded to the uncertainties and probabilities implied by the false tweet, but Karppi says it's impossible to know the specific genetics of these algorithms.

The result «implies either that the New York - New Jersey area simply experienced a very rare event (with climate change playing no significant role), or that a climate - change influence increased the probability of its occurrence,» they wrote in a 2013 study on Sandy's angle of approach.

Other free tools include a profit - and - loss calculator, a probability calculator (that uses implied volatility to determine your likelihood of hitting your targets) and the Maxit Tax Manager, which identifies tax implications of trading decisions (e.g., as short - and long - term gains and losses, wash sales) for planning purposes and generates on - demand 1099 forms.

I noted a couple of weeks ago that the implied default probability for Greek debt had reached about 100 % on the basis of 2 - year yield spreads.

Now, while I believe there's a low probability of negative 5 year returns, these scenarios shouldn't necessarily imply highly asymmetric upside potential's on offer either... Of course, that will depend on the specific odds you attach to the likelihood of each scenario actually occurring — Scenarios III & IV may require an improved macro / FX environment, a stabilisation / turn - around in dynamic hedging & currency for return, and / or a possibly more aggressive new business approach.

TradeLAB gives investors a profit / loss / break - even snapshot on a single screen as well as the probability of any profit, based on the current stock price and the current implied volatility.

«Based on their analyses, Wallace and Anderson report «there has been no notable variation in intense storm impacts across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coast during this time interval,» i.e., 5300 - 900 yr BP, «implying no direct link between changing climate conditions and annual hurricane impact probability.»

Or, in other words, if we assume that AGW necessarily implies that global mean surface temps will rise at some point in the future (although we might argue about estimated probabilities of the extent) on the assumption that mitigating natural variations will cancel out over the long term.

Bayes» theorem implies that the (posterior) probability distribution of an unknown parameter, in the light of data providing information on it, is given by multiplying a prior probability distribution thereof by the data - derived likelihood function [i], and then normalizing to give a unit CDF range.

The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change notes shortcomings that call into question the decision - support relevance of climate - model output on the space and timescales advertised by UKCIP, and calculating implied probability distribution functions doesn't solve issues of model inadequacy: We often see that there are relevant phenomena our models just can't simulate, and thus, we know that probabilities implied by our models are irrelevant without knowing how to fix them.