Isn't it time for the Treasury to think «out of the box»
on inflation targeting?
This is particularly important given that our monetary policy is based
on inflation targeting.
«In the U.S., this obsession
on inflation targeting has lately been taken to a new level as former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke has floated the idea of a price - level targeting mandate for the Fed.
If the effectiveness of macroprudential policies could be relied on, would that mean that monetary policy is off the hook, allowing the Bank to focus
on its inflation target and leave macroprudential policies to take care of financial stability?
I have talked about this at length elsewhere, and I am sure that informed people are well acquainted with the current monetary policy regime in Australia, which is based
on an inflation target, an independent central bank and a floating exchange rate.
Not exact matches
Even if Canada doesn't start dropping payloads of cash itself — something Cooper says he does not foresee in the next three years, at least — the ripple effect of a central bank explicitly
targeting higher
inflation and adopting formerly verboten measures to get it would be felt
on these shores in the form of increased global volatility.
NEW YORK, May 2 - U.S. stocks edged higher while the dollar and Treasury yields fell
on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and said
inflation had «moved close» to its
target.
The occasion for the release was the end of the Bank of Canada's latest review of whether it is
on track to hit its
inflation target.
NEW YORK, May 2 - U.S. stocks fell
on Wednesday as investors digested a statement from the Federal Reserve, which left interest rates steady and said
inflation had «moved close» to its
target, while the dollar climbed late against a basket of currencies.
Stanford says Morneau and the Bank of Canada should use the mandate review to «put everything
on the table,» and take a hard look at adopting a completely different
target, such as job creation or «sustainable growth» instead of
inflation.
CNBC's Steve Liesman reports
on the possible interest rate hike after the Fed met both goals with a strong jobs report and an
inflation target of two percent.
«If they do
target aggressively the 2 percent
inflation target, and undertake a significant amount of QE, that may have an impact
on underlying JGB (Japanese government bond) yields as investors become concerned over Japan's debt,» he said.
Asian shares closed mixed
on Thursday as U.S. - China trade talks kicked off and investors digested an acknowledgment by the Federal Reserve that
inflation had moved nearer its
target.
But
inflation remains distant from the BOJ's 2 percent
target as companies hold off
on raising prices and wages, citing uncertainty over the economic outlook.
NEW YORK, May 2 (Reuters)- U.S. stocks edged higher while the dollar and Treasury yields fell
on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and said
inflation had «moved close» to its
target.
WASHINGTON, May 2 - The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady
on Wednesday and expressed confidence that a recent rise in
inflation to near the U.S. central bank's
target would be sustained, leaving it
on track to raise borrowing costs in June.
Nevertheless, when making interest rate policy in early March, BoC governor Mark Carney overlooked rising pressures
on inflation and left the central bank's
target for Canada's overnight rate at 1 %.
The central bank expressed confidence that a recent rise in
inflation near to its
target would be sustained, leaving it
on track to raise borrowing costs in June.
U.S. data
on Monday showed that consumer prices accelerated in the year to March, with a measure of underlying
inflation surging to near the Federal Reserve's 2 percent
target as last year's weak readings dropped out of the calculation.
John Canally, chief economic strategist for LPL Financial, said the language may continue to be used in coming months «as transition words» until «it becomes clear to FOMC members that the overall economy, the labor market, and
inflation are well
on their way toward hitting the FOMC's
targets.»
Economists expect the Fed will raise rates at least once this year, based
on a view of an improving U.S. jobs market and the central bank coming under pressure to keep
inflation from rising well above its 2 %
target.
Its rate - setting committee said
inflation had «moved close» to its
target and that «
on a 12 - month basis is expected to run near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term.»
That insight, as obvious as it may seem, conflicts with the Fed's policy of raising interest rates preemptively, even as
inflation continues to undershoot its
target, essentially
on concerns that a 17 - year - low 4.1 % jobless rate may already be beyond what officials consider «full employment.»
Schembri defines the neutral interest rate as «the interest rate consistent with the economy growing at its potential and
inflation staying
on target.
Analysts said the use of the word «symmetric» suggests that the Fed may allow
inflation to run above its 2 percent
target, a stance that would limit the need for the central bank to embark
on a more aggressive path of monetary tightening in response to recent rises in
inflation.
Brainard now believes the Fed should move slower
on rate hikes and even allow
inflation to run above the 2 percent
target for a while.
My own view is that we should be cautious about tightening policy further until we are confident
inflation is
on track to achieve our
target.»
Speculation
on further easing has been growing since Draghi's last press conference in October, when he expressed concern about fresh risks to the economy from the slowdown in China and other emerging markets, and about the stubborn refusal of
inflation to come back to its
targeted level of just under 2 %.
On Thursday, Kocherlakota forecast
inflation to stay below the Fed's 2 - percent
target until 2018, a sign that the country is not taking full advantage of its resources.
The open - ended program will not start until next year and central bankers were divided
on the new 2 percent
inflation target, with two of the central bank's nine policymakers voting against the move.
The spotlight in Asia fell
on the BOJ, which doubled its
inflation target to 2 percent and adopted an open - ended commitment to buy assets, surprising markets that had expected another incremental increase in its 101 trillion yen ($ 1.12 trillion) asset - buying and lending program.
On the other side of the mandate, the Fed's preferred measure of
inflation is below
target at around 1.3 percent.
In what is widely seen as a watershed moment, the Bank of Japan
on Tuedsay doubled its
inflation target to 2 percent and made an open - ended commitment to buy assets from next year, surprising markets that had expected another incremental increase in its $ 1.1 trillion asset - buying and lending program.
«We still see U.K.
inflation being clearly
on the way up with the 2 percent
target being reached in (the first quarter of) 2017 as exchange rate pass - through continues,» RBC analysts posited in a note
on Tuesday morning.
His comments suggest the ECB remains confident that
inflation is finally
on an upward trend, supporting market expectations for the bank to finally end its bond purchase programme this year, satisfied that
inflation will eventually hit its nearly 2 percent
target.
On inflation running below the Fed's
target, Yellen said that though
inflation is running below its
target, a «small undershoot» of the Fed's employment
target should facilitate
inflation moving back towards that
target.
See Renewal of the
Inflation - Control
Target: Background Information — October 2016 for more information
on these measures.
The
inflation section contains a brief description of the measures of
inflation the Bank of Canada monitors, and provides links to
inflation data, the agreement
on the
inflation - control
target, and related research and publications.
December 2009 (1967 kb PDF file): The Q&A in this issue features seven questions about political influence and the financial crisis (by Deniz Igan, Prachi Mishra, and Thierry Tressel); research summaries
on «Credit Conditions and Recoveries from Financial Crises» (by Prakash Kannan) and «
Inflation Targeting in Emerging Economies» (by Turgut Kýþýnbay); the contents of the latest issue of IMF Staff Papers; a listing of visiting scholars at the IMF during October — December 2009; and listings of recent IMF Working Papers and Staff Position Notes
«This progress reinforces governing council's view that higher interest rates will be warranted over time, although some monetary policy accommodation will still be needed to keep
inflation on target.»
If central banks had
targeted higher average
inflation,
on the other hand, interest rates would also have been higher, allowing central banks more space to slash rates to keep the economy functioning.
Given these positive surprises, and because monetary policy must be forward - looking to achieve our
inflation target, Governing Council's discussions focused
on three main issues: first, the extent to which recent strength is signalling stronger economic momentum in Canada and globally; second, how heightened levels of uncertainty, particularly about US tax and trade policies, should be incorporated in our outlook; and third, how much excess capacity the economy currently has, and the growth rate of potential output going forward.
The spread
on the nominal less
inflation - indexed rates for both the five - and 10 - year maturities remains above 2.0 % — a sign that the crowd expects that hard data
on inflation will hold at or above the Fed's
target in the near term.
The
inflation wars of the 1970s and 1980s led to a broad consensus
on two fronts among academics and policymakers: First, central banks are responsible and accountable for price stability, which was often acknowledged through the formal adoption of an
inflation targeting framework.
The last dot shows where the rate is today — close to zero (~ 40 bps)-- which is where it should be IMHO as we're not yet at full employment and there's no worrisome signs of overheating;
inflation remains quiescent such that the Fed keeps missing their 2 %
inflation target on the downside.
The Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged late
on Wednesday, acknowledging
inflation is close to
target without indicating any intention to veer from a gradual tightening path.
The US Dollar was boosted overnight by prospects of Fed continuing the path of gradual monetary policy normalization in light of
inflation in the US approaching the
targeted levels but retreated somewhat during the European trading
on Thursday
on profit - taking.
Total CPI
inflation remains near the bottom of the Bank's
target range as the disinflationary effects of economic slack and low consumer energy prices are only partially offset by the inflationary impact of the lower Canadian dollar
on the prices of imported goods.
Not only have you missed your 2 %
inflation target every quarter since 2012q2, but as the figure shows (using revised data
on yr / yr PCE core
inflation) you're missing it
on the downside by a greater margin over time.
In the current context, getting the economy back to full capacity with
inflation on target is central to supporting financial stability over the longer term.