Sentences with phrase «on mean global temperature»

I've not tried to model faster - moving changes such as those related to ENSO, mainly because I'm not thus far persuaded that those have much bearing on the mean global temperature for say the decade 2100 - 2110.

Overall the results suggest that the Southern Oscillation exercises a consistently dominant influence on mean global temperature, with a maximum effect in the tropics, except for periods when equatorial volcanism causes ad hoc cooling.

Not exact matches

In its recent Assessement Report (AR5), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that global mean temperature may rise up to 5 °C elsius by the end of this century.

While reading of Jules May and Andrew Collins's bet on whether global mean temperature would exceed that of 2015 within...

He said he does think, however, that there will a broader shift to warmer ocean conditions that will last for several years and that means that global temperatures will hover around the level they have recently reached before moving upward again, like stairs on a staircase.

Lord Monckton made up data on atmospheric CO2 concentration and global mean temperature that he claimed were IPCC predictions.

As discussed elsewhere on this site, modeling studies indicate that the modest cooling of hemispheric or global mean temperatures during the 15th - 19th centuries (relative to the warmer temperatures of the 11th - 14th centuries) appears to have been associated with a combination of lowered solar irradiance and a particularly intense period of explosive volcanic activity.

Early on in the temperature record, the red and blue lines diverge because natural factors meant the full impact of greenhouse gases on temperatures wasn't being felt, but in recent years, the two lines match closely, showing how much greenhouse gases are dominating global temperatures.

As alluded to in our post, one important issue is the possibility that changes in El Nino may have significantly offset opposite temperature variations in the extratropics, moderating the influence of the extratropical «Little Ice Age» and «Medieval Warm Period» on hemispheric or global mean temperatures (e.g. Cobb et al (2003).

Most of the focus has been on the global mean temperature trend in the models and observations (it would certainly be worthwhile to look at some more subtle metrics — rainfall, latitudinal temperature gradients, Hadley circulation etc. but that's beyond the scope of this post).

[T] he idea that the sun is currently driving climate change is strongly rejected by the world's leading authority on climate science, the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which found in its latest (2013) report that «There is high confidence that changes in total solar irradiance have not contributed to the increase in global mean surface temperature over the period 1986 to 2008, based on direct satellite measurements of total solar irradiance.»

Today we understand the impact of human activities on global mean temperature very well; however, high - impact extreme weather events are where the socio - economic impacts of a changing climate manifest itself and where our understanding is more in its infancy but nevertheless developing at pace.

«Solar cycle variability may therefore play a significant role in regional surface temperatures, even though its influence on the global mean surface temperature is small (0.07 K for December — February).»

Because climate systems are complex, increases in global average temperatures do not mean increased temperatures everywhere on Earth, nor that temperatures in a given year will be warmer than the year before (which represents weather, not climate).

Based on the linear trend, for the 0 to 3,000 m layer for the period 1961 to 2003 there has been an increase of ocean heat content of approximately 14.2 ± 2.4 × 1022 J, corresponding to a global ocean volume mean temperature increase of 0.037 °C during this period.

However, comparison of the global, annual mean time series of near - surface temperature (approximately 0 to 5 m depth) from this analysis and the corresponding SST series based on a subset of the International Comprehensive Ocean - Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) database (approximately 134 million SST observations; Smith and Reynolds, 2003 and additional data) shows a high correlation (r = 0.96) for the period 1955 to 2005.

On shorter time scales, however, changes in heat storage (i.e., ocean heat uptake or release) can affect global mean temperature.

To contribute to an understanding of the underlying causes of these changes we compile various environmental records (and model - based interpretations of some of them) in order to calculate the direct effect of various processes on Earth's radiative budget and, thus, on global annual mean surface temperature over the last 800,000 years.

The review by O'Gorman et al (3) reports that a 1C increase in global mean temperature will result in a 2 % — 7 % increase in the precipitation rate; the lower values are results of GCM output, and the upper values are results from regressing estimated annual rainfalls on annual mean temperatures.

On this figure they plot the Jones global mean temperature together with a global magnetic index (the aa index), a cosmic ray flux index (Climax) and the PMOD composite satellite record of solar irradiance.

The average temperature on Earth has barely risen over the past 16 years, indicating that global warming is currently taking a break - though that doesn't mean it's over yet.

Based on regional studies, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated that 20 — 30 % of the world's species are likely to be at increasingly high risk of extinction from climate change impacts within this century if global mean temperatures exceed 2 — 3 °C above pre-industrial levels [6], while Thomas et al. [5] predicted that 15 — 37 % of species could be «committed to extinction» due to climate change by 2050.

Using a statistical model calibrated to the relationship between global mean temperature and rates of GSL change over this time period, we are assessing the human role in historic sea - level rise and identifying human «fingerprints» on coastal flood events.

And of course — «all other things are not equal», as so many other climate effects also have their impact on the global mean surface temperature.

The concatenation of modern and instrumental records [52] is based on an estimate that global temperature in the first decade of the 21st century (+0.8 °C relative to 1880 — 1920) exceeded the Holocene mean by 0.25 ± 0.25 °C.

But global mean temperature evolution alone can't tell us how climate and weather are changing on the ground, where people live.

As long as the temporal pattern of variation in aerosol forcing is approximately correct, the need to achieve a reasonable fit to the temporal variation in global mean temperature and the difference between Northern and Southern Hemisphere temperatures can provide a useful constraint on the net aerosol radiative forcing (as demonstrated, e.g., by Harvey and Kaufmann, 2002; Stott et al., 2006c).

One finds on the secular time scale that both of the X - and Y - component temporal, annual - means profiles of the Earth's Orientation mimic exactly the Global Temperature Anomaly (GTA) annual means profile On the decade time scale one finds that the GTA mimics the Geomagnetic Dipole variations and the variations in the Earths Anomalous Rotation Rate [i.e., Excess Length of Day (ELOD) Annual Meanson the secular time scale that both of the X - and Y - component temporal, annual - means profiles of the Earth's Orientation mimic exactly the Global Temperature Anomaly (GTA) annual means profile On the decade time scale one finds that the GTA mimics the Geomagnetic Dipole variations and the variations in the Earths Anomalous Rotation Rate [i.e., Excess Length of Day (ELOD) Annual Memeans profiles of the Earth's Orientation mimic exactly the Global Temperature Anomaly (GTA) annual means profile On the decade time scale one finds that the GTA mimics the Geomagnetic Dipole variations and the variations in the Earths Anomalous Rotation Rate [i.e., Excess Length of Day (ELOD) Annual Memeans profile On the decade time scale one finds that the GTA mimics the Geomagnetic Dipole variations and the variations in the Earths Anomalous Rotation Rate [i.e., Excess Length of Day (ELOD) Annual MeansOn the decade time scale one finds that the GTA mimics the Geomagnetic Dipole variations and the variations in the Earths Anomalous Rotation Rate [i.e., Excess Length of Day (ELOD) Annual MeansMeans].

Ray, I think Lee Grable's point is important: The fact that we use the term «global temperature» to mean the average temperature on a two - dimensional surface rather than the three - dimensional ocean plus land plus atmosphere system of the earth has the potential to allow confusion.

Figures 1 and 2 of the post are referenced to the year 2000; however, since 2000 the world has been on an anthropogenic emissions path leading to at least a 5oC mean global temperature rise by 2100.

This doesn't address longer causal connections, but if the net impact of temperature on CO2 can be shown to be neutral or in the negative direction over then long term, than cointegration probably means that CO2 is causing global warming.

«Our results show that temperature records of at least 17 years in length are required for identifying human effects on global - mean tropospheric temperature.»

As alluded to in our post, one important issue is the possibility that changes in El Nino may have significantly offset opposite temperature variations in the extratropics, moderating the influence of the extratropical «Little Ice Age» and «Medieval Warm Period» on hemispheric or global mean temperatures (e.g. Cobb et al (2003).

... Polar amplification explains in part why Greenland Ice Sheet and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet appear to be highly sensitive to relatively small increases in CO2 concentration and global mean temperature... Polar amplification occurs if the magnitude of zonally averaged surface temperature change at high latitudes exceeds the globally averaged temperature change, in response to climate forcings and on time scales greater than the annual cycle.

Since the GCMs have clearly overpredicted the overall trend in global average mean temperature, and since there are other epochs where there fit to the overall trend is poor, I think that you confidence in an estimate of natural variability based on them is misplaced.

It is extremely likely that more than half of the global mean temperature increase since 1951 was caused by human influence on climate (high confidence).

(2) What proportion of model runs from a multi-model ensemble produce global mean temperatures at or below (on average) the actual measurement for the last 10 years?

According to a recent article in Eos (Doran and Zimmermann, «Examining the Scientific consensus on Climate Change `, Volume 90, Number 3, 2009; p. 22 - 23 — only available for AGU members — update: a public link to the article is here), about 58 % of the general public in the US thinks that human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing the mean global temperature, as opposed to 97 % of specialists surveyed.

It's an important moment for this message to sink in, because the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, meeting this week in Bangkok, is getting ready to dive in on a special report on the benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above Earth's temperature a century or more ago and emissions paths to accomplish that (to learn what this murky number means in relation to the more familiar 2 - degree limit click here for a quick sketch, basic science, deep dive).

However, the annual mean predictions for the global temperature that they issue every year does have some skill — being based mainly on the state of ENSO at the start of the year.

Rate of global sea - level rise based on the data of Church & White (2006), and global mean temperature data of GISS, both smoothed.

Lou Grinzo (12)-- I am under the impression that HadCRUTv3 uses air temperatures on land and sea surface temperatures in the oceans to produce their global mean.

Brown, P. T., W. Li, and S. P. Xie (2015), Regions of significant influence on unforced global mean surface air temperature variability in climate models, J. Geophys.

First, global mean surface temperature depends on the quantity of heat stored at the surface of the earth (earth, lower atmosphere, and the mixed layer of the oceans).

It therefore makes no sense to only attribute changes from after the point of detection since you'll miss the first 2 sigma of the change... Similarly, we can still calculate the forced component of a change even if it isn't the only thing going on, and indeed, before it is statistically detectable in the global mean temperature anomaly.

I have published a number of studies on the value of using some simple metrics of the spatial patterns of global temperature change, rather than just global mean temperature change.

http://climate.nasa.gov/news/1141/: «Norman Loeb, an atmospheric scientist at NASA's Langley Research Center, recently gave a talk on the «global warming hiatus,» a slowdown in the rise of the global mean surface air temperature.

I agree with your comments about the IPCC process and the relatively poor IPCC AR5 discussion on ECS and 1998 - 2012 global mean temperature variations (I don't use the word «h *****»).

«The 2 \ sigma uncertainty in the global mean anomaly on a yearly basis are (with the current network of stations) is around 0.1 ºC in contrast that to the estimated uncertainty in the absolute temperature of about 0.5 ºC (Jones et al, 1999).»

For instance, whether the 2004 global mean temperature anomaly places it in the top 4 or bottom 4 years is a fact regardless of any political spin people might care to place on it.