Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I was reading through the recent Trenberth paper
on ocean heat content that's been discussed at various locations around the web.
The instrument temperature record shows they have different impacts
on the ocean heat content and sea surface temperatures.
Effects of tropical cyclones
on ocean heat transport in a high resolution coupled general circulation model.
But we can infer the sign and (rough) magnitude of the present and past (integrated) TOA imbalance from the combined effect
on ocean heat content and the mass of the land based cryosphere.
In a paper, «Heat Capacity, Time Constant, and Sensitivity of Earth's Climate System» soon to be published in the Journal of Geophysical Research (and discussed briefly at RealClimate a few weeks back), Stephen Schwartz of Brookhaven National Laboratory estimates climate sensitivity using observed 20th - century data
on ocean heat content and global surface temperature.
Comment
on ocean heat content and Earth's radiation imbalance.
Data
on ocean heat content from these floats had been therefore eagerly anticipated.
A lot of the southern hemisphere started warming 5000 years ago which didn't have much impact on Global «surface» but did
on ocean heat content.
Now you scurry on over to Obama and tell him to divert some of the billions being poured down the toilet of innumerable statistical revisions of the limited data we actually have, and start getting real data
on that ocean heat content about which we actually know very little.
When I wrote a «basic» rebuttal
on ocean heat, I didn't expect one of the world's foremost climate scientists - and one who is frequently associated with climate change scepticism - to take issue with me, or to take it so personally.
The Wong et al plot shows the best data available
on ocean heat storage and toa radiant flux pre 2000.
The relative roles can easily be computed from OHC data and data
on ocean heat uptake efficiency and radiative restoring (reflected in the climate feedback parameter).
The notion that over the longer timescales, forced responses dominated (at least for the second half of the past century) is reinforced by data
on Ocean Heat Uptake since 1955.
Personally I think he landed
on the ocean heat argument as being the only reasonable way to measure global warming because he thinks he can make a stronger measurement uncertainty - based action - delaying argument on this tack... Who, me?
The slow down is a century - long phenomenon — it would be instructive to have a break - down of its displacement in time — I bet that it is dominated by the 1980 - 2000 period and the 1998 super ENSO event — in which case, their explanation of the post-2002 stillstand
on ocean heat content and recent la Nina would be interesting — though probably put down to random variability.
For a much more complete Earth energy budget — data
on ocean heat, solar radiance and energy radiated at the top of the atmosphere is required.
Allows you to keep track of impact
on ocean heat content.
In the earth system, the ocean has by far the majority of the climate's heat content changes, so arguments about enthalpy need to be centered
on the ocean heat content changes.
What is lacking is any theory for an internally produced energy source of this magnitude that can rival the changing CO2 in its effect
on ocean heat content.
The lack of a statistically significant warming trend in GMST does not mean that the planet isn't warming, firstly because GMST doesn't include the warming of the oceans (see many posts
on ocean heat content) and secondly because a lack of a statistically significant warming trend doesn't mean that it isn't warming, just that it isn't warming at a sufficiently high rate to rule out the possibility of there being no warming over that period.
Eric Holthaus points out that 2014's heat record was based
on ocean heat, not land heat, which was only the fourth hottest:
The appearance of the first studies
on Ocean Heat Content during the 2000's would have been one of the significant factors in the IPCC increasing its level of confidence that AGW was real in its 4th report in 2007.
Griffies, S. M., M. Winton, W. G. Anderson, R. Benson, T. L. Delworth, C. O. Dufour, J. P. Dunne, P. B. Goddard, A. K. Morrison, A. Rosati, A. T. Wittenberg, J. Yin, R. Zhang, 2014: Impacts
on ocean heat from transient mesoscale eddies in a hierarchy of climate models.
The tropical volcanoes would have the largest impact
on Ocean Heat Uptake and tropical ocean SST which takes 5 to 10 years to work its way through the climate system.
There's important work to be done on this question but — as the oceanographer Carl Wunsch notes at the end of this post — the paucity of data
on ocean heat makes it tough to get beyond «maybe» answers.
Richard Harris did a National Public Radio report
on the ocean heat analysis by Dr. Willis, which is to be published soon in the Journal of Geophysical Research.
Given their importance in evaluating climate models, new reports
on the ocean heat content numbers are anticipated quite closely.
The error bars on the CERES retrievals, particularly when all 4 sensors are available are significantly less than the (reported) error bars
on the ocean heat content data in the Lyman et al work.
These recent studies have broken important new ground, but they largely neglect uncertainties surrounding thermal expansion (thermosteric SLR) and / or observational constraints
on ocean heat uptake.
They also demonstrate that there are important dependencies
on the ocean heat uptake estimates as well as to the aerosol forcings.
We continue to «discover» vast, active volcanoes in the deep oceans, could they not have an impact
on ocean heat content and via that the atmospheric heat content?
Weather patterns over the UK, as elsewhere, depend
on the ocean heat state (as well as insolation etc).
I remember the attention I paid to a paper by Tom Wigley I believe — must have been in the late 1980s —
on ocean heat content having risen since the 1950s.
A new paper Assessing the Globally Averaged Sea Level Budget on Seasonal and Interannual Time Scales (Willis 2008) displays up - to - date data
on ocean heat.
The effect of greenhouse gases
on ocean heat isn't confined to daylight hours however, they toil away around the clock.
Consequently there have been several data analyses
on ocean heat since 2003.
Not unexpectedly the authors confirmed that heat is continuing to build up in the sub-surface ocean, which agrees with other recent studies
on ocean heat.
Let me back up and do some homework
on ocean heating.
Not exact matches
More amazingly, we now know that beneath the crust of Enceladus is a global
ocean of liquid saltwater and organic molecules, all being
heated by hydrothermal vents
on the seafloor.
If you happen to find yourself sailing through the Indian
Ocean, make a stop
on the island of Mauritius to try this
heat - beating lager.
The burgeoning dining scene in Las Vegas continues to
heat up with Chef Brian Malarkey's acclaimed
ocean - to - table concept, Herringbone, anchoring in its new Las Vegas location
on Monday, December 28th at AAA Five Diamond ARIA Resort & Casino.
It stays
on in seven conditions — sun, pool water,
ocean water, wind, sweat, sand and even 100 degree
heat!
Divers from the Rothera Research Station in Antarctica monitor
heated panels, designed to mimic
ocean warming,
on the seabed near Adelaide Island.
That wind - driven circulation change leads to cooler
ocean temperatures
on the surface of the eastern Pacific, and more
heat being mixed in and stored in the western Pacific down to about 300 meters (984 feet) deep, said England.
This
heating ought to be weak, but some unknown process seems to be amplifying it, possibly enough to melt a deep
ocean of liquid water
on Enceladus, or maybe only enough to form smaller pools of water within the moon's icy shell.
Gerald Meehl, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research who was also an author
on the paper, said this research expanded
on past work, including his own research, that pointed to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation as a factor in a warming slowdown by finding a mechanism behind how the Pacific
Ocean was able to store enough
heat to produce a pause in surface warming.
Finally, all the climate models assume different amounts of energy stored
on Earth that is transferred to the
ocean depths, which act as an enormous
heat sink.
A study led by scientists at the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for
Ocean Research Kiel shows that the ocean currents influence the heat exchange between ocean and atmosphere and thus can explain climate variability on decadal time sc
Ocean Research Kiel shows that the
ocean currents influence the heat exchange between ocean and atmosphere and thus can explain climate variability on decadal time sc
ocean currents influence the
heat exchange between
ocean and atmosphere and thus can explain climate variability on decadal time sc
ocean and atmosphere and thus can explain climate variability
on decadal time scales.
Ocean currents affect the surface temperature of the
oceans and thus the
heat exchange with the atmosphere — eventually causing climate variations
on the adjacent continents.
Global climate models need to account for what Meehl calls «slowly varying systems» — how warmer air gradually
heats the
ocean, for example, and what effect this warming
ocean then has
on the air.