Here, in part one of three, are my notes
on oil sands project viability in this new, low - price environment.
Next, I want to address the potential impact of new GHG policies
on oil sands projects — in short, I want to show that the Prime Minister's contention that it would be crazy to impose new GHG regulations on the oil sands sector is incorrect.
In preparation for testimony before the House of Commons finance committee in Ottawa on March 10, I pulled together some thoughts on three aspects of the impact of the oil - price crash
on oil sands projects and policies, and I thought I'd share them with you here over this and the next couple of posts.
The province will exercise its existing right to receive «royalty - in - kind»
on oil sands projects (i.e. raw bitumen delivered to the Crown - operated Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission in lieu of cash royalties).
The foreign funding can help pay for what research firm IHS CERA estimates will be $ 100 billion in spending
on oil sands projects over the next decade.
Not exact matches
The B.C. government has pinned much of the province's economic future
on LNG exports, saying the
projects are equivalent to Alberta's
oil sands in terms of jobs and revenue generation.
The future viability of
oil sands projects depends not just
on your view of world
oil prices — it depends just as much
on how these factors evolve, in particular discounts to Canadian heavy products and the Canadian dollar.
Back in March, 1,000 construction workers employed
on contract to work
on the $ 3.2 billion Sunrise
oil sands project were laid off.
It adds that «approval or denial of the proposed
project is unlikely to have a substantial impact
on the rate of development in the
oil sands, or
on the amount of heavy crude
oil refined in the Gulf Coast area.»
Furthermore, while the company does have another potentially significant growth opportunity
on the horizon in its CA$ 20 billion ($ 15 billion) Frontier
oil sands mining
project, it appears to be a long shot of moving forward considering where crude is these days.
Soon, Lake explains, he'll start looking for a lifestyle increasingly
on offer to mobile young people like him: work at a northern Alberta
oil sands project, but live further south, either flying in and out of a camp or driving up once a week.
A few years ago an economic case could have been made to break ground
on a major new pipeline
project from the
oil sands, but that time has now come and gone.
Probably the most discussed aspect of the NGP Report (see this excellent discussion
on CBC's The 180 beginning at around the seven minute mark) is the JRP's treatment (or lack thereof) of «upstream» greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs), and specifically the apparent asymmetry between the JRP's decision to consider the need to open markets for
projected increases in
oil production — the vast majority of which would uncontrovertibly be from the
oil sands — but not the GHGs associated with this
projected growth.
Falling
oil prices and rising costs have prompted Stavanger, Norway - based Statoil ASA to suspend work
on its 40,000 - barrel / day tar
sands /
oil sands project in northern...
The Alberta government has leased almost 100,000 square kilometers of the
oil sands deposit, so the potential certainly exists for an industrial
project on the scale of England, if a little smaller.
TransCanada has said its shippers remain committed to the
project, which would deliver diluted bitumen from Alberta's
oil sands to refineries
on the Gulf Coast that are specifically equipped to process heavy crude.
National Bank also highlighted that major maintenance initiatives are planned at Syncrude Canada Ltd., Canadian Natural Resources Ltd.'s Athabasca
oil sands project and Suncor Energy Inc.'s base plant — which cumulatively could reduce industry
oil output by 650,000 barrels per day in the coming months, easing some of the stress
on full pipeline networks.
The EIA in February reported that Canada pumped an average of 4.5 million barrels a day in 2015, and predicted this would rise to 4.8 million in 2017 as
oil sands projects under construction when
oil prices began to fall in 2014 come
on line.
House Speaker John Boehner, R - Ohio, appealed to Obama to approve the $ 8 billion
project, which would pipe
oil from the Canadian tar
sands to U.S. refineries
on the Gulf Coast.
Seeing an opportunity to offset some of the emissions from its
oil -
sands development, the province of Alberta committed Can $ 2 billion (US$ 2.1 billion) to sequestration in 2008 and is now working out agreements with commercial partners
on four
projects.
In March, the US State Department stated that the
project was unlikely to have much impact
on the rate at which Canada's
oil sands are developed, suggesting that the
oil would be transported by rail if the pipeline were not built.
Kerry's testimony came
on the heels of a loud call by more than half the Senate demanding the Obama administration quickly approve the Keystone XL pipeline
project that would ship about 700,000 barrels of crude daily from Canada's
oil sands to refineries along the Gulf of Mexico.
Based
on information and analysis about the North American crude transport infrastructure (particularly the proven ability of rail to transport substantial quantities of crude
oil profitably under current market conditions, and to add capacity relatively rapidly) and the global crude
oil market, the draft Supplemental EIS concludes that approval or denial of the proposed
Project is unlikely to have a substantial impact
on the rate of development in the
oil sands, or
on the amount of heavy crude
oil refined in the Gulf Coast area.
Enbridge, meanwhile, announced it will spend $ 200 million
on a new pipeline to connect Athabasca
Oil Corp's planned Hangingstone oil sands project in northern Alberta to its regional pipeline netwo
Oil Corp's planned Hangingstone
oil sands project in northern Alberta to its regional pipeline netwo
oil sands project in northern Alberta to its regional pipeline network.
«Based
on evidence raised across our many disciplines, we offer a unified voice calling for a moratorium
on new
oil sands projects,» the scientists write.
It was the first commercial development
on the Athabasca
oil sands, although small, earlier
projects like that at Bitumount also played a role in development.
Genome Alberta announced C$ 25.2 million (US$ 22.2 million) in public / private funding over four years for two new genomic research
projects, one targeted at enhanced recovery of fossil hydrocarbon resources from
oil sands and coal beds through biological processes, the other focused
on discovering plant genes that can be sequenced and used... Read more →
Most of these high - price reserves (PDF) are
on the industry's new frontiers — in the Arctic, deep ocean waters or unconventional sources such as the Alberta tar
sands (PDF), where three major
projects were deferred in 2014 because of falling
oil prices.
Petroleum Coke: The Coal Hiding in the Tar
Sands By:
Oil Change International Lorne Stockman Published: December 2013 The Canadian tar
sands have been called the «Äúmost environmentally destructive
project on earth», with good reason.
The first - of - its - kind proposal asked Chevron to increase dividend payments to shareholders instead of spending so much
on unconventional
oil, tar
sands and other
projects that could be rendered unprofitable by future climate policies or a related drop in
oil prices.
Some companies are actively developing
oil sands project phases previously placed
on hold and investor interest in new
projects also continues to increase, CAPP says
The review did not recommend approval of the pipeline, but raised no major objections, concluding that the
project was «unlikely to have a substantial impact»
on the climate or
oil sands production.
Approval of the controversial Keystone XL pipeline would have only a marginal positive impact
on the economics of the Canadian
oil -
sands industry, but could nevertheless trigger a rush of high - risk investment into additional
projects that would rely heavily
on rising
oil prices, according to new research from the Carbon Tracker Initiative.
and «Yellowstone Spill Shadows Efforts
on the Keystone XL») The Quest
project is aimed at capturing the emissions that result from an intermediate step of the
oil sands process, called upgrading.
Canada — in the broadest collective sense, in whatever way we are all one — is as fully dug in
on the production of
oil sands crude as it has been in any of its resource
projects.
This revealed approval of the controversial Keystone XL (KXL) pipeline would only have a marginal positive impact of the economics of the Canadian
oil -
sands industry, but could trigger a rush of investment into additional risky high - cost, high - carbon
projects, dependent
on rising
oil prices.
One
project will look at whether impurities in CO2 have an impact
on the capture, transport and underground storage of CO2, while another will study geological sites in the Athabasca area (i.e. where the
oil sands are located) that are ideal for underground storage of CO2.
Of course, the development of new
oil sands projects depends
on a recovery in the world
oil price.
The main economic goal of the TMX
project is to increase netbacks to
oil sands producers by avoiding bitumen oversupply problems at Cushing, Oklahoma (also known as «The Pipeline Crossroads of the World») and by providing an option
on selling the product into alternative markets in Asia and California.
But environmental groups have mounted a major campaign to derail the
project, arguing that approval of a pipeline from Canada's «tar
sands» will increase global emissions of greenhouse gases, threaten local water sources and frustrate U.S. efforts to reduce its reliance
on crude
oil.
After all, new
oil sands projects on the drawing board have costs per barrel well above current market prices.
The push for the
oil sands projects and similar extractions off the gulf coast, rests
on a hidden decision to drive our economy into collapse and to such an extent, that these
oil sources will be ESSENTIAL for moving what remains of this economy forward, once the dollar looses all purchasing power.
Notes that
projects like the proposed Keystone XL tar
sands pipeline send the wrong message to our communities and citizens who work hard to lessen our dependence
on oil, using innovative conservation, efficiency and other measures.
With All Eyes
on Keystone, Another Tar
Sands Pipeline Just Crossed the Border «The Keystone XL pipeline may be in political limbo, but that hasn't stopped another Canadian company from quietly pressing ahead
on a pipeline
project that will ramp up the volume of tar
sands oil transported through the U.S.. What's more, the company, Enbridge, is making those changes without a permit, and environmental groups say it is flouting the law.
Mr. Coutu - whose company owns 36.7 per cent of the Syncrude
oil sands project - acknowledged other sectors would have to take up the slack if the
oil sands have only intensity - based requirements and Ottawa imposes a national cap
on emissions.
The trio took top honors in the category for their work
on «The Dilbit Disaster: Inside the Biggest
Oil Spill You've Never Heard Of,» a project that began with a seven - month investigation into the million - gallon spill of Canadian tar sands oil into the Kalamazoo River in 20
Oil Spill You've Never Heard Of,» a
project that began with a seven - month investigation into the million - gallon spill of Canadian tar
sands oil into the Kalamazoo River in 20
oil into the Kalamazoo River in 2010.
Lower
oil prices may be cutting into the financial viability of Canadian
oil sands projects, but as soon as
oil prices rise again (and they will...) the drive to exploit one of the most environmentally destructive form of energy
on
Carbon Tracker's focus is to make sure more capital is not sunk
on high - cost, high - carbon
projects, like Kashagan in the Caspian or
oil sands in Canada.»
«Shell's deferral of Pierre River, one of the high - cost
oil sands projects that we highlighted in our «Carbon supply Cost Curves» analysis last year, is in line with our belief that companies should cancel capex
on high - cost
projects in favour of a portfolio of low - breakeven investments in order to protect shareholder value,» said Andrew Grant financial analyst at the Carbon Tracker Initiative.
25 November — Approval of the controversial Keystone XL pipeline would have only a marginal positive impact
on the economics of the Canadian
oil -
sands industry, but could nevertheless trigger a rush of high - risk investment into additional
projects that would rely heavily
on rising
oil prices, according to new research from the Carbon Tracker Initiative.