Anthony invited me to help with the analysis but, as you know, I long ago resolved to spend time
on paleoclimate data not temperature data and did not pursue the topic.
Roller coaster is based
on paleoclimate data from Marcott et al, 2013.
However, as Hansen notes, empirical estimates of climate sensitivity based
on paleoclimate data are consistent with the sensitivity in climate models of approximately 3 °C for doubled atmospheric CO2.
Quaternary Science Rev., 26, 37 - 55, doi: 10.1016 / j.quascirev.2006.07.013)-- there's just no doubt about it, these astronomical cycles are clearly imprinted
on paleoclimate data.
These conclusions are based
on paleoclimate data showing how the Earth responded to past levels of greenhouse gases and on observations showing how the world is responding to today's carbon dioxide amount.
They suggested this based
on paleoclimate data from the Eemian period, when one degree of warming seems to have done just that.
Not exact matches
So if you could then bring all these together — parts per millions, the global forcing and sea - level rise — based
on the
paleoclimate record, which is, kind of, the really more a recent
data that the new view is built
on.
He has served
on national and international advisory committees for
paleoclimate research, ocean research, and
data management issues, and has contributed to national reports
on abrupt climate change and climate extremes.
In Eos now... three early - career scientists report
on the PAGES 2nd YSM in Goa, and discuss future directions for the
paleoclimate field, e.g. the need for network building, more quantitative proxy - based reconstructions, fast and efficient
data sharing, securing funding, and communicating results.
We use Earth's measured energy imbalance,
paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts
on today's young people, future generations, and nature.
Paleoclimate data show that
on century and millennial time scales the slow feedbacks are predominately amplifying feedbacks.
Alternatively, more direct observations of that radiative imbalance would be nice, or better theoretical and observational understanding of the water vapor and cloud feedbacks, or more
paleoclimate data which can give us constraints
on historical feedbacks, but my guess is that ocean heat content measurements would be the best near term bet for improving our understanding of this issue.
On July 23, I wrote about the rocky rollout, prior to peer review, of «Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms: Evidence from
Paleoclimate Data, Climate Modeling, and Modern Observations that 2 °C Global Warming is Highly Dangerous.»
Proxy
data, ratonal behind the models, how they have improved and some issues
on paleoclimate are all covered.
«In reality climate models have been tested
on multicentennial time scales against
paleoclimate data (see the most recent PMIP intercomparisons) and do reasonably well at simulating small Holocene climate variations, and even glacial - interglacial transitions.
«d. Reconstructions of
paleoclimate data over the last 60 million years show that changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide exert a strong control
on the climate system.»
Coats, S., 2015:
Paleoclimate Model -
Data Comparisons of Hydroclimate over North America with a Focus
on Megadroughts.
The
paleoclimate data, even if completely wrong, is completely independent of arguments based
on GCMs tuned to the instrumental record.
Originally posted
on Open Mind: A new paper by Hansen et al., Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from
paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming is highly dangerous is currently under review...
We suggest that the best constraint
on actual climate sensitivity is provided by
paleoclimate data that imply a sensitivity 3 ± 1 °C for 2 CO2 [Hansen et al., 1984, 1993, 1997b; Hoffert and Covey, 1992].
Quote from another
paleoclimate grad student in conversation «the deniers never hate
on us the way they do the tree ring people,»cause our
data is solid».
One of the longest standing Climate Audit issues with
paleoclimate reconstructions is ex post decisions
on inclusion / exclusion of
data, of which ex post decisions
on inclusion / exclusion of sites /
data in «regional [treering] chronologies» is one important family.
On the historical scale — the
paleoclimate scale — the sun is important, we know the sun is driving these long cycles, but if you look at the small variations in the solar radiation and the variations in the climate
data they don't match up.
The feedbacks, including subsurface ocean warming, help explain
paleoclimate data and point to a dominant Southern Ocean role in controlling atmospheric CO2, which in turn exercised tight control
on global temperature and sea level.
Among the communities targeted by the EarthCube program, some communities, including scientists using marine annually resolved proxy archives, have yet to establish a cyberinfrastructure with improved standards for storage and sharing of
paleoclimate data and archive - specific metadata
on the physical samples.
Paleoclimate data show that
on century and millennial time scales the slow feedbacks are predominately amplifying feedbacks.
In a few cases they rely
on subjective interpretation of questionable reconstructed
paleoclimate data from selected periods of our geological past, rather than
on empirical
data based
on actual, real - time physical observations or reproducible experimentation..
Starting in 2005, building
on a sequence of events seeking to obtain raw
data, leading ultimately to the FOIA events central to the CRU controversy, McIntyre builds an iconoclastic website which at least implicitly supports the false propositions that climate change concerns rest primarily
on paleoclimate evidence and that
paleoclimate evidence is systematically skewed.
Based
on these
data, the 10 - year period, 1146 — 1155, was selected as a scenario of worst - case warm drought from the
paleoclimate data for the past 12 centuries over the Southwest.
a) Due to decentered PCA
on one small fraction of the
data, throw out
paleoclimate reconstructions as wrong.
Eli, and the bunnies, have been following the
on line review of Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from
paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming is highly dangerous by J. Hansen, M. Sato, P. Hearty, R. Ruedy, M. Kelley, V. Masson - Delmotte, G. Russell, G. Tselioudis, J. Cao, E. Rignot, I. Velicogna, E. Kandiano, K. von Schuckmann, P. Kharecha, A. N. Legrande, M. Bauer, and K. - W.
Anyone who would like to discuss with me the facts revealed by the Wegman report that there is a
paleoclimate mafia controlling what gets published, that they have systematically published erroneous interpretations of paleoclimatic
data, and that almost any paleoclimatic temperature profile can be obtained depending
on how you manipulate the proxies, just email me at drdrapp [at] earthlink.net and tell me your name, address, professional affiliation, and recent work you have done climate science.
Interactive comment
on «Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from
paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2C global warming is highly dangerous» by J. Hansen et al..
I have always thought more weight should be given to the
paleoclimate data than to climate models,
on account of it being, well,
data.
As far as # 2 goes, ice core
data is used for recent
paleoclimate data on CO2 concentration, nothing much earlier than about 1000 years ago, because of the errors inherent in the ice core
data.
Finally, we comment
on several policy issues arising from this controversy: the lack of consistent requirements for disclosure of
data and methods in
paleoclimate journals, and the need to recognize the limitations of journal peer review as a quality control standard when scientific studies are used for public policy.
Temperature histories from
paleoclimate data (green line) compared to the history based
on modern instruments (blue line) suggest that global temperature is warmer now than it has been in the past 1,000 years, and possibly longer.
Climateaudit has focused
on auditing topics related to the
paleoclimate reconstructions over the past millennia (in particular the so called «hockey stick») and also the software being used by climate researchers to fix
data problems due to poor quality surface weather stations in the historical climate
data record.
The scientific evidence for human influence
on current climate comes from a large body of independent lines of evidence of which
paleoclimate data is but a small part.