It is no coincidence many of Applegreen's competitors have been recently sold as the founders are taking advantage of peak multiples
on peak earnings.
This chart is consistent with the valuation assessment of P / E ratios that are based
on peak earnings, multi-year averages of earnings, or earnings that take into account the duration and extent of the earnings cycle.
Presently, the price / peak - earnings multiple on the S&P 500 is just over 10, but that is based
on peak earnings of about $ 86 for the Index.
Not exact matches
The major indexes have since struggled to hold gains for the year amid worries about rising interest rates, a U.S. - China trade war, prohibitive regulation
on technology giants and a
peak in
earnings growth.
As for «
peak earnings,» Michael Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist and CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said in a note to clients
on Sunday that» [W] e think the market is digesting the fact that the tax cut last year has created a lower quality increase in US
earnings growth that almost guarantees a
peak rate of change by 3Q.»
GDP is the best read the stock market has
on whether
peak earnings will arrive sooner than expected.
According to salary data,
on average, women's
earnings peak at 38 and men's at 48.
The graph shows that average valuations are generally better globally than they are in the US
on a pure price - to -
peak earnings basis.
Since that time, the market's P / E
on «forward operating
earnings» has generally been substantially lower than the price /
peak earnings ratio based
on the highest level of trailing net
earnings to - date.
In March 2000, near the stock market's bubble
peak, the median price /
earnings ratio
on the largest 50 S&P 500 stocks was 35.6, while the median P / E
on the smallest 50 S&P 500 stocks was just 10.1.
I don't have data
on global business sales, but here is an article that shows how global
earnings are now finally back up where they'd been in 2011, but are still below the 2008
peak, even as global stocks have surged.
The yield
on the 10 - year Treasury bond climbed above 3 % for the first time since 2014, but of greater concern to many market participants were remarks in major corporate
earnings reports suggesting that business conditions had likely hit their
peak and were poised to deteriorate going forward.
The electric - car maker's stock TSLA, -5.55 % has slumped 16 % since its closing
peak this year at $ 357.42
on Feb. 26 through Tuesday, compared to the S&P 500's SPX, -0.23 % 4.5 % loss, and talk is getting ugly ahead of Wednesday's first - quarter
earnings report.
While the current price /
peak -
earnings multiple is already at an elevated level above 18, what I'll call the «P / E equivalent» multiples
on other fundamentals are: 21
on the basis of book values, nearly 23
on the basis of enterprise value / EBITDA (which factors in the increasing share of debt
on corporate balance sheets), over 25
on the basis of revenues, and 29
on the basis of dividends (largely because dividend payout ratios remain relatively low even
on the basis of normalized
earnings).
As usual, I don't place too much emphasis
on this sort of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already high price /
peak earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for market losses, particularly given that the current bull market has now outlived the median and average bull, yet at higher valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal divergence as measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weakness.
But valuations, even
on a price /
peak -
earnings basis, are now in the same range as the 1929, 1972, and 1987
peaks.
Those nearing retirement are often in their
peak earnings years and may have fewer demands
on their income — their kids are finishing college and their mortgage may be paid.
Unfortunately, the market is now strenuously valued even
on the basis of price /
peak -
earnings.
Presently, long - term bonds provide nowhere to hide, and median equity valuations exceed those at the 2000
peak on price /
earnings, price / revenue, and enterprise value / EBITDA.
The S&P 500 registered a record high after an advancing half - cycle since 2009 that is historically long - in - the - tooth and already exceeds the valuation
peaks set at every cyclical extreme in history but 2000
on the S&P 500 (across all stocks, current median price /
earnings, price / revenue and enterprise value / EBITDA multiples already exceed the 2000 extreme).
Even at the 1929
peak, the price /
peak earnings ratio
on the S&P 500 index was just over 20.
The price /
peak -
earnings multiple is the ratio of the S&P 500 to the highest level of
earnings attained to date, even if current
earnings on the index have declined below that
peak.
I generally base these P / E ratios
on peak -
earnings.
That was a bit worse than even the estimate based
on a terminal P / E of 7, because the brutal 1974 bottom formed a sharp but temporary «V.» In contrast, in the 10 years beginning in 1990 (when the price /
peak -
earnings ratio was close to 11), the S&P 500 achieved a total return of fully 20 % annually.
Based
on newly released quarterly
earnings figures, the S&P 500's price /
peak earnings ratio is nearly 20.
Oh, and in the two years following the end of this particular chart, the price /
peak earnings multiple
on the S&P 500 fell in half.
Presently, the market remains richly valued
on normalized
earnings, and is coming off of a speculative
peak with an abrupt and persistent initial decline.
Yet the European ex UK market is trading
on a 17x
peak cycle
earnings.
I'll leave it to others to chime in whether forward P / E's are useful or not given the fact they typically overstate
earnings and I'll ignore that
earnings may be at a cyclical
peak (more
on the latter here).
With the exception of the 2007 market
peak, most of the bull markets of the past 25 years witnessed a
peak valuation
on the S&P 500 of roughly 20x to 22x 12 - month trailing
earnings, higher than the S&P 500's 17.5 x valuation today.
Using V2G - technology,
peak demand
on the electricity grid can be better balanced, by allowing electric vehicles to not just take power from the grid, but also return it to the network and expect to introduce a new potential
earnings model for electric drivers.
Their Author
Earnings Report is a standard in the business, showing which niches are
on the rise and which ones have
peaked and are
on their way down.
Prior
peak earnings were, indeed, an artifact of unrealistically high profit margins and return
on equity, driven by large amounts of debt - financed leverage.
On the subject of valuations, I believe that the
peak level of
earnings seen in the past market cycle was somewhat high, so I'd agree with Bill Gross at PIMCO in the sense that we're not likely to see that level of
earnings as the «norm.»
Likewise, Aqua America (WTR) saw its return
on invested capital
peak at 4.74 % in the most recent trailing twelve month period, and trades at 18.3 times forward
earnings estimates.
To illustrate,
on the basis of Robert Shiller's P / E ratio, the S&P 500 has tended to
peak at about 23 times trailing
earnings before declining (although in 1929 they rose above 30 and in 2000 they rose above 40).
Basing your lifestyle
on this income assumption rather than your
peak earnings will allow you to save more for the future, while also subjecting you to less of a downshift in lifestyle as you grow older.
With the exception of the 2007 market
peak, most of the bull markets of the past 25 years witnessed a
peak valuation
on the S&P 500 of roughly 20x to 22x 12 - month trailing
earnings, higher than the S&P 500's 17.5 x valuation today.
If you look at periods where the price /
peak earnings multiple was 16 or higher
on the S&P 500, the final rate hike of a tightening cycle was actually associated with losses
on an annualized total return basis, averaging -7.18 % over the following 6 months, -9.94 % over the following 12 months, and -5.87 % over the following 18 months.
In 1916,
on the eve of US involvement in World War I, real per share
earnings for a capitalization - weighted market portfolio
peaked and did not achieve a new high, adjusted for inflation, until the end of 1950, 34 years later.
Based
on Saga's operating & share price history, I'm confident we'll see another / higher cyclical
peak in sales &
earnings in due course, and a share price trajectory to match...
It appears to be significantly undervalued based (mostly)
on current metrics, and could potentially offer exponential upside based
on its prior share price history and a possible return to
peak revenues /
earnings.
The two sets of bars
on the left show the returns during periods where price to
peak earnings ratios were less than 15 and in periods where the yield curve was either upward sloping or inverted.
Going for the Gold Valuing Foreign Currencies Estimating the Long - Term Return
on Stocks The Importance of Measuring Returns
Peak - to -
Peak Hussman Price /
Peak -
Earnings Ratio Featured in Barron's Magazine The Two Essential Elements of Wealth Accumulation Mutual Fund Brokerage Fees and Trading Costs The Use (and Abuse) of Short - Term Performance Bear Market Insights How and Why Options Should be Expensed from Corporate
Earnings
The two sets of bars
on the right show both yield curve environments, but during periods where the price to
peak earnings ratio was greater than 17.
Pensions are typically calculated based
on only 1.5 % of your
peak earnings, multiplied by years of service.
And the fact Saga now trades
on 3.2 times
peak earnings is a great reminder of the potential upside if we see sales regain / surpass their previous FY - 2013
peak in due course.
A very smart friend of mine points out: «If you are only looking at trailing twelve month numbers
on earnings growth and ROIC, then you can't distinguish from a company being truly high quality or just at a
peak in its business cycle.»
Also, and I need to be more patient
on this, a recessionary environment is actually «exciting» — if it goes
on long enough, investors give up, mark down share prices to v reasonable levels, and seem to completely forget what
peak (and possibly future)
earnings were — a potential multi-bagger situation.
Thanks to unusually high debt levels and unusually low labor compensation in recent years, the
earnings peak in 2007 was based
on profit margins that were about 50 % above the historical average, and which have now collapsed.