But this claim is discredited by University of Washington climatologist Cliff Mass, who after examining precipitation levels in the Gulf found that «[t] here is no evidence that global warming is influencing Texas coastal precipitation in the long term and little evidence that warmer than normal temperatures had any real impact
on the precipitation intensity from this storm.»
«Flooding depends not only
on precipitation intensity and duration, but also how much water the ground can hold,» said Leung.
Not exact matches
The study establishes a method for estimating UHI
intensities using PRISM — Parameter - elevation Relationships
on Independent Slopes Model — climate data, an analytical model that creates gridded estimates by incorporating climatic variables (temperature and
precipitation), expert knowledge of climatic events (rain shadows, temperature inversions and coastal regimes) and digital elevation.
Given the revised timeline in this region, Willenbring and colleagues determined that the increased
precipitation resulted from changes in the
intensity of the sun's radiation
on the Earth, which is based
on the planet's tilt in orbit.
Climate scientists know that the
intensity of extreme
precipitation events is
on the rise because there's more water vapor in the atmosphere caused by higher global and sea temperatures.
Knutson, T.R., and R.E. Tuleya, 2004: Impact of CO2 - induced warming
on simulated hurricane
intensity and
precipitation: Sensitivity to the choice of climate model and convective parameterization.
Data analyses have found an increase of drought
intensity at many locations [130]--[131] The magnitude of change depends
on the drought index employed [132], but soil moisture provides a good means to separate the effect of shifting seasonal
precipitation and confirms an overall drought intensification [37].
By looking at the signatures of climate change in
precipitation intensity and comparing that to the internal variability and the observation, the researchers conclude that the probability of intense
precipitation on any given day has increased by 7 percent over the last 50 years — well outside the bounds of natural variability.
Knutson & Tuleya (2004) Impact of CO2 - Induced Warming
on Simulated Hurricane
Intensity and
Precipitation: Sensitivity to the Choice of Climate Model and Convective Parameterization, J. Clim.
«Since the AR4, there is some new limited direct evidence for an anthropogenic influence
on extreme
precipitation, including a formal detection and attribution study and indirect evidence that extreme
precipitation would be expected to have increased given the evidence of anthropogenic influence
on various aspects of the global hydrological cycle and high confidence that the
intensity of extreme
precipitation events will increase with warming, at a rate well exceeding that of the mean
precipitation..
Feynman andRuzmaikin (1999) found that, «the
intensity of cosmic rays incident
on the magnetopause has decreased markedly during this century,» i.e., the twentieth century (and also that, «the pattern of cosmic ray
precipitation through the magnetosphere to the upper troposphere has also changed.»
Thomas R. Knutson and Robert E. Tuleya, «Impact of CO2 - Induced Warming
on Simulated Hurricane
Intensity and
Precipitation: Sensitivity to the Choice of Climate Model and Convective Parameterization,» Journal of Climate, vol.
Accordingly, there is less certainty about the changes in frequency and
intensity of tropical cyclones
on a regional basis than for temperature and
precipitation changes.
For the entire Northern Hemisphere, there is evidence of an increase in both storm frequency and
intensity during the cold season since 1950,1 with storm tracks having shifted slightly towards the poles.2, 3 Extremely heavy snowstorms increased in number during the last century in northern and eastern parts of the United States, but have been less frequent since 2000.11,15 Total seasonal snowfall has generally decreased in southern and some western areas, 16 increased in the northern Great Plains and Great Lakes region, 16,17 and not changed in other areas, such as the Sierra Nevada, although snow is melting earlier in the year and more
precipitation is falling as rain versus snow.18 Very snowy winters have generally been decreasing in frequency in most regions over the last 10 to 20 years, although the Northeast has been seeing a normal number of such winters.19 Heavier - than - normal snowfalls recently observed in the Midwest and Northeast U.S. in some years, with little snow in other years, are consistent with indications of increased blocking (a large scale pressure pattern with little or no movement) of the wintertime circulation of the Northern Hemisphere.5 However, conclusions about trends in blocking have been found to depend
on the method of analysis, 6 so the assessment and attribution of trends in blocking remains an active research area.
No matter the probability or
intensity of USGS ARkStorm it would have to drop
precipitation (not snowpack which melts slower) where the watersheds are for the 10 dams in Northern California shown
on the map at the following link (the 2 dams in Southern California only receive water from the Northern Cal dams and should not be considered): Link
The colour field underneath the wind arrows shows the
precipitation rate
on a scale from 0 to 20 mm per hour, noting that peaks in rainfall
intensity (which may have been far higher than 20 mm / hr at times in localised regions within the Hurricane circulation), are not resolved in this animation.
The multiple physical connections between lightning, convection,
precipitation, and rapid storm
intensity changes make lightning a rich source of information
on how these storms evolve.
Gutowski, W. J., E. S. Takle, K. A. Kozak, J. C. Patton, R. W. Arritt, and J. H. Christensen, 2007: A possible constraint
on regional
precipitation intensity changes under global warming.
Area - averaged
precipitation data (terciles) for south - west eastern Australia was classified
on the basis of STR
intensity and position.
Data analyses have found an increase of drought
intensity at many locations [130]--[131] The magnitude of change depends
on the drought index employed [132], but soil moisture provides a good means to separate the effect of shifting seasonal
precipitation and confirms an overall drought intensification [37].
You mention possible ways to get empirical data to either validate or falsify your hypothesis regarding wind
intensity based
on precipitation.
Because
precipitation comes mainly from weather systems that feed
on the water vapour stored in the atmosphere, this has generally increased
precipitation intensity and the risk of heavy rain and snow events.
But California droughts are also fundamentally linked to the quantities and timing of
precipitation, the dynamics of storm formation in the Pacific Ocean, the impacts of climate change
on the frequency and
intensity of El Niño and La Niña events and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the behavior of the jet stream as conditions in the Arctic change.
Gavin said upfront: «By looking at the signatures of climate change in
precipitation intensity and comparing that to the internal variability and the observation, the researchers conclude that the probability of intense
precipitation on any given day has increased by 7 percent over the last 50 years — well outside the bounds of natural variability».
Incidentally, those who claim the extreme 2005 hurricane season is entirely due to a natural cycle, like Bill Gray, also say it is due to warmer ocean temperatures — the difference in opinion is in why the ocean temperatures are so warm, not in the effect this has
on hurricane
intensity or
precipitation.
Trenberth did say something both to the point and scary, to wit, that based
on studies of hurricane
INTENSITY, he calculates that 1 ″ of extra
precipitation was dumped into area around New Orleans because of global climate changes.
According to this latest study, an 80 year build - up of atmospheric CO2 at 1 % / yr (compounded) leads to roughly a one - half category increase in potential hurricane
intensity on the Saffir - Simpson scale and an 18 % increase in
precipitation near the hurricane core.
Based
on our published results and as well as those of other modeling groups, we conclude that at the global scale: a future increase in tropical cyclone
precipitation rates is likely; an increase in tropical cyclone
intensity is likely; an increase in very intense (category 4 and 5) tropical cyclones is more likely than not; and there is medium confidence in a decrease in the frequency of weaker tropical cyclones.
«Whereas if it relies
on multiple environmental conditions — like sunlight
intensity, wind speed,
precipitation — all of these factors could create a more stable power source with a higher power output.»
This event is associated with cold and dry conditions increasing with latitude in the North, temperature and
precipitation influences
on tropical and boreal wetlands, Siberian - like winters in much of the North Atlantic, weakening of monsoon
intensity, and southward displacement of tropical rainfall patterns.
Zhanqing Li, lead author of a paper published in Nature Geoscience and University of Maryland atmospheric scientist, says, «Using a 10 - year dataset of atmospheric measurements, we have uncovered the long - term, net impact of aerosols
on cloud height and thickness and the resulting changes in
precipitation frequency and
intensity.»