Not exact matches
The differential heating imposed
on the troposphere + surface layer is sufficient that LW emissions from within the layer are not able to establish pure
radiative equilibrium without having the temperature profile become unstable to convection.
(57k) When I state that the
equilibrium climatic response must balance imposed RF (and feedbacks that occur), I am referring to a global time average RF and global time average response (in terms of
radiative and convective fluxes),
on a time scale sufficient to characterize the climatic state (including cycles driven by externally - forced cycles (diurnal, annual) and internal variability.
The stratosphere will, absent sustained non-
radiative perturbations (see 57i), approach
radiative equilibrium on a time scale under a year (Holton, «An Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology», 1992, p. 410), so taking stratospheric adjustment to instantaneous stratospheric forcing first and then applying the adjusted tropopause - level forcing to the troposphere + surface and stratospheric feedbacks is similar to the actual order of events in reality.
In short, though, I think that the interest in unforced variability and in instabilities both in the field and in the general public masks the well - known fact that the time constant for
radiative equilibrium of the atmosphere alone is
on the order of weeks.
Re my 441 — competing bands — To clarify, the absorption of each band adds to a warming effect of the surface + troposphere; given those temperatures, there are different
equilibrium profiles of the stratosphere (and different
radiative heating and cooling rates in the troposphere, etc.) for different amounts of absorption at different wavelengths; the bands with absorption «pull»
on the temperature profile toward their
equilibria; disequilibrium at individual bands is balanced over the whole spectrum (with zero net LW cooling, or net LW cooling that balances convective and solar heating).
The
equilibrium climate sensitivity quantifies the response of the climate system to constant
radiative forcing
on multi-century time scales.
Fred, I'm must looking at Held's blog
on radiative convective
equilibrium and it looks like to me that they «discovered» that convection is inormously conplex with bifurcation points and possibly nonuniquess:
Miskolczi instead claims he has shown that the discontinuity is the result of ignoring the lower boundary condition, and in fact the ground is
on average in thermal
radiative equilibrium with the air in contact with it.
We consider the Earth without an atmosphere and calculate an temperature
on the basis of a
radiative equilibrium -LSB-...] Then we obtain nearly 255 K and state that the difference between this value and the mean global temperature amounts to 33 K. Unfortunately, this uniform temperature of the
radiative equilibrium has nothing to do with the mean global temperature derived from observations -LSB-...] ``
«The
equilibrium climate sensitivity quantifies the response of the climate system to constant
radiative forcing
on multicentury time scales.
So it seems to me that the simple way of communicating a complex problem has led to several fallacies becoming fixed in the discussions of the real problem; (1) the Earth is a black body, (2) with no materials either surrounding the systems or in the systems, (3) in
radiative energy transport
equilibrium, (4) response is chaotic solely based
on extremely rough appeal to temporal - based chaotic response, (5) but at the same time exhibits trends, (6) but at the same time averages of chaotic response are not chaotic, (7) the mathematical model is a boundary value problem yet it is solved in the time domain, (8) absolutely all that matters is the incoming
radiative energy at the TOA and the outgoing
radiative energy at the Earth's surface, (9) all the physical phenomena and processes that are occurring between the TOA and the surface along with all the materials within the subsystems can be ignored, (10) including all other activities of human kind save for our contributions of CO2 to the atmosphere, (11) neglecting to mention that if these were true there would be no problem yet we continue to expend time and money working
on the problem.
And the gut feeling by IPCC is everything from a walk in the park to catastrophe: «The
equilibrium climate sensitivity quantifies the response of the climate system to constant
radiative forcing
on multi - century time scales.
But that level very likely will be less than that based
on the extremely over-simplified, zeroth - order
radiative -
equilibrium so - called model.
The troposphere is in
radiative - convective
equilibrium (check out Isaac Held's work
on this).
During this two - week transition period, any water vapor excess (or deficit) relative to the
equilibrium distribution did of course produce a
radiative greenhouse heating (or cooling) effect, but this «virtual forcing» was very transient in nature, without any lasting impact
on the global temperature.
The problem of
radiative equilibrium between relativistically shifted temperatures that I touched
on earlier is one to which they can conveniently be applied (the aberration of light is such a spinor boost and rotation).
The TOA is the radiating «surface»
on a planet with an atmosphere, which is in
radiative equilibrium with the Sun at 255K.
If one inserts a thin and stationary horizontal adiabatic wall (well... ok, «insulated wall») at any height L within a gas column at
equilibrium (no net diffusive,
radiative or convective heat flows within this column) then the pressure
on both sides of the wall integrated over its surface match the weight of the column above.
I was responding to someone who was using an equation that represents a temp differential from one
equilibrium state to the next, based
on additional
radiative forcing.
Radiative Transfer Physics does not depend entirely
on the simple absorbtivity of CO2, which by the way is effectively permanent in air when added by burning fossil fuels, compared to water which saturates and precipitates out depending
on climate conditions, such as warming due the GHE, as a marginal shift in the dynamic
equilibrium through feedbacks.
Similarly, the climate scenarios were based
on 2xCO2
equilibrium GCM projections from three models, where the
radiative forcing of climate was interpreted as the combined concentrations of CO2 (555 ppm) and other greenhouse gases (contributing about 15 % of the change in forcing) equivalent to a doubling of CO2, assumed to occur in about 2060.
The fundamental hypothesis is that at some time in the past and over some unspecified time - averaging period that
on a whole - planet basis
radiative energy transport attained a state of
equilibrium; out - going energy = in - coming energy.
ECS is the increase in the global annual mean surface temperature caused by an instantaneous doubling of the atmospheric concentration of CO2 relative to the pre-industrial level after the model relaxes to
radiative equilibrium, while the TCR is the temperature increase averaged over 20 years centered
on the time of doubling at a 1 % per year compounded increase.
The amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere combined with other factors determine the
radiative balance, and / or temperature at which relative thermal
equilibrium for a planet occurs based
on these factors.
Re 416 Bernd Herd — in climate science, for global climate change, specifically a global (average surface) temperature change in response to a global (typically average net tropopause - level after stratospheric adjustment)
radiative forcing (or other heat source — although
on Earth those tend not to be so big), where the
radiative forcing may be in units of W / m ^ 2, so that
equilibrium climate sensitivity is in K * m ^ 2 / W (it is often expressed as K / doubling CO2 as doubling CO2 has a certain amount of
radiative forcing for given conditions).
For that point
on the surface of the earth to stop heating up (
equilibrium) the
radiative energy emitted by that point in a 24 hour period must therefore exceed the
radiative energy it absorbed from the sun in that 24 hour period.
showing how EM radiation, heat and air / water kinetic energy (in cells, circulations, currents, weather systems and convection columns and so
on) move and how long they have to move before they reach some kind of
equilibrium would go some way to visualising why it takes time for the earth system to respond to
radiative forcing (commitment time lag).
Radiative equilibrium takes place
on very fast (microsecond or less) timescales, so what
on earth are you talking about?
The central conclusion of this study is that to disregard the low values of effective climate sensitivity (≈ 1 °C) given by observations
on the grounds that they do not agree with the larger values of
equilibrium, or effective, climate sensitivity given by GCMs, while the GCMs themselves do not properly represent the observed value of the tropical
radiative response coefficient, is a standpoint that needs to be reconsidered.
An atmosphere can be in stable
radiative equilibrium for any LW optical depth, but the
equilibrium surface temperature will monotonically depend
on the value of the optical depth....»
You then say «It is based
on the fallacy that if the escape of heating is blocked, then the temperature will continue to rise until a «
radiative equilibrium» is reached..»
It is based
on the fallacy that if the escape of heating is blocked, then the temperature will continue to rise until a «
radiative equilibrium» is reached and the heat bursts through the barrier.