A recent study of water vapor trends above North America based
on radiosonde measurements from 1973 to 1993 finds increases in precipitable water over all regions except northern and eastern Canada, where it fell slightly.
The satellite measurements appear to be substantiated by independent trend estimates for this period based
on radiosonde data.
Dr. Angell's focus was
on the radiosonde measurements of the atmospheric temperature above the Earth's surface but he also gave results for surface temperature.
Miskolczi's quantity depends heavily
on the radiosonde data.
«I do not have enough knowledge
on radiosonde analyses to be able to render a judgment.»
In conclusion, the research
on radiosonde measurement problems looks promising but it is only a small part of a larger problem of poor measurements and poor models.
Steve: My understanding is that reanalysis humindity depends
on radiosondes about which there are many inhomogeneity issues — I don't know this for sure, but I suspect that placing the blame on GCMs may be unfair in this case.
Not exact matches
Elena Stautzebach launches her daily weather balloon, or
radiosonde, which will provide feedback
on atmospheric conditions.
Using U.S. Weather Service data
on precipitation,
radiosonde measurements of CAPE and lightning - strike counts from the National Lightning Detection Network at the University of Albany, State University of New York (UAlbany), they concluded that 77 percent of the variations in lightning strikes could be predicted from knowing just these two parameters.
In the third paper this week, Sherwood et al report
on an apparent bias in the daytime readings of these
radiosondes which, again, appears to have suppressed the trends in the data sets (Steve discusses this more fully in an accompanying piece).
The most popular
radiosonde manufacturer worldwide today is the Vaisala corporation, whose strategy for coping with solar heating is to concede that it will happen and try to correct for it: the thermistor is mounted
on a «boom» that sticks into the air flow where the sun can shine
on it, but the heating error is estimated from the measured ascent rate and solar zenith angle and subtracted from the reported temperature.
What the global change community (through the NRC and CCSP reports) always asserted and then used to discount the
radiosonde and UAH satellite trends was that the deep troposphere should not warm less than the surface and in fact based
on models globally the troposphere should warm 1.2 more (the amplification factor).
The Sherwood et al. study in Science Express concerns one particular type of long - recognized
radiosonde error, that caused by the sun shining
on the «thermistor» (basically, a cheap thermometer easily read by an electric circuit).
Further evidence has accumulated of an anthropogenic influence
on the temperature of the free atmosphere as measured by
radiosondes and satellite - based instruments.
Apparently «comprehensive treatment» involves focusing
on anomalous
radiosondes and expanding uncertainty claiming that increased uncertainty means they're right.
This is indicated for the last 50 years by
radiosondes mounted
on weather balloons and for since 1979 (when the first pertinent satellites were launched) by MSU mounted
on satellites.
Temperature measurements retrieved from the hundreds of balloon - borne
radiosonde instruments that are released each day by the various national weather services provide much more detailed information
on the vertical structure of atmospheric temperature changes than is available from satellites.
How, for example, does this incident cast doubt
on the findings from satellite data,
radiosondes, borehole analysis, glacial melt observations, sea ice melt, sea level rise, proxy reconstructions, permafrost melt and such like, gathered completely independently of the CRU?
What one can really learn from the
radiosonde data
on the changes in H2O concentration is an interesting issue not answered conclusively by this analysis.
I am talking here about the directly measured
radiosonde water vapor data, not about the useless clear - sky transmission calculations
on cloudy profiles.
He has been working
on the predictability studies using
radiosonde observations and data assimilation technique.
The paper discusses four different sets of data
on satellite atmospheric monitoring (all producing slightly different end products), two
radiosonde data sets (from UK Hadley Centre and University of Vienna, both adjusted for inhomogeneities — and that opens another can of worms), four different surface temperature data sets (based
on reconstructed sea surface temperature data sets from Hadley Centre, again, and Climate Research Unit).
- You ignore two
radiosonde datasets and rely only
on HadAT2, despite expert advice.
If we can't get accurate
radiosonde measurements after 50 years and 28 million measurements, then why
on Earth would anyone assume that we can create 3D working global climate models that are more accurate?
Ultimately there are uncertainties in the
radiosondes, but the satellites don't find the scaling ratios either, and the models fail
on most other measures.
independence of both the measurement errors and the uncertainties in satellite,
radiosonde, and surface - based temperature records, which lends greater confidence to an assessment based
on all three measurement categories than to an assessment based
on any one of them in isolation.
Looking further, I found a comment by Dr. Roy Spencer's blog, which echoed my point
on inequality, and also notes that the
radiosonde data Miskolczi is looking at to argue 60 years of no change is, well, a bit poor.
However, for
radiosonde observations, which are irregularly spaced with large gaps over the oceans (Figure 2.6), global - mean temperature is estimated
on the basis of those stations operating during the season in question.
«In this work, we evaluate the agreement between MSU and homogenized
radiosonde data sets
on multiyear (predominantly 5 - year) time scales and find that MSU data sets are often more similar to each other than to
radiosonde data sets and vice versa.
Using U.S. Weather Service data
on precipitation,
radiosonde measurements of CAPE and lightning - strike counts from the National Lightning Detection Network at the University of Albany, State University of New York (UAlbany), they concluded that 77 percent of the variations in lightning strikes could be predicted from knowing just these two parameters.
UAH validates some of the choices they have made
on the best way to process satellite data (radiances) by comparing their results to
radiosondes.
To date, most large - scale water vapor climatological studies have relied primarily
on analysis of
radiosonde data, which have good resolution in the lower troposphere in populated regions but are of limited value at high altitude and are lacking over remote oceanic regions.
However, early
radiosonde sensors suffered from significant measurement biases, particularly for the upper troposphere, and changes in instrumentation with time often lead to artificial discontinuities in the data record... Consequently, most of the analysis of
radiosonde humidity has focused
on trends for altitudes below 500 hPa and is restricted to those stations and periods for which stable instrumentation and reliable moisture soundings are available.
Dessler et al. published a paper which used the change in the velocity of
radiosonde balloons, instead of the
on board instrumentation to show the the tropical troposphere hot spot did exist even though the correlation of the data required some serious creativity.
UAH MSU RSS MSU NCDC GISTEMP Hadley CET Armagh Hadley CRUG
Radiosonde balloon SIDC SSN A word
on scale Source files
Anyway, our paper concluded by suggesting that, in view of the extreme significance of upper - level humidity to the climate change story, the international
radiosonde data
on upper - level humidity should not be «written off» without a serious attempt at abstracting the best possible humidity signal from within the noise of instrumental and operational changes at each of the relevant
radiosonde stations.
Radiosonde locations are quickly plotted (from ERA - 40 data ingest for January 1, 2001): There are
on the order of 700 stations used with the highest density in the Northern Hemisphere especially in Norther America and Central Europe.
Whether it is really missing and the degree to which it is missing in fact depend
on which analysis of the satellite data and
radiosonde data one believes... and there are good reasons to believe there are problems with the data and that the models are basically correct.
DWT of Feb Mar 07 vs Feb Mar 08 were very similar, in fact 08 Was warmer by 1 K by
radiosonde DWT's as per graph
on my website.
I have checked up
on the diurnal variation in temperature and found this paper: Seidel et al., 2005 Diurnal cycle of upper - air temperature estimated from
radiosondes.
Zhang, and J. Wang, 2005: A statistical model of cloud vertical structure based
on reconciling cloud layer amounts inferred from satellites and
radiosonde humidity profiles.
John Christy, the scientist and interviewee
on whose work this latter claim is based, seems to have forgotten that he had written in a US Climate Change Science Program report: «This significant discrepancy [between lower and upper atmosphere warming] no longer exists because errors in the satellite and
radiosonde [weather balloon instrument] data have been identified and corrected.
Despite unanimous agreement
on the sign of the trends, substantial disagreement exists among available estimates as to the rate of temperature changes, particularly outside the NH extratropical troposphere, which has been well sampled by
radiosondes.
The fits with the indiviual
radiosonde measurements, look at the plots please
on page 10 in the EGU presentation:
The IPCC fifth assessment report concluded:» based
on multiple independent analyses of measurements from
radiosondes and satellite sensors it is virtually certain that globally the troposphere has warmed and the stratosphere has cooled since the mid-20th century.
I know aspersion have been made about the ERBE data, and the
Radiosonde data, but that is what we have and can't be blamed for relying
on it.
My «Word matching» throws up the issue that the paper is only useful for «clear sky» applications, when M's calculation is based
on «real sky»
radiosonde observations and «real sky» observations from a high tower.
He doesn't mention that the
radiosonde datasets are regarded as questionable for climatological purposes at higher altitude due to radiative heating / cooling effects
on the instrument packages.
They don't realize this is a huge step forward in atmospheric physics, mainly because all of the equations and relations that he has coerced out of the
radiosonde data are applicable at almost any point
on the Earth and at any season, averaged over time and within tight error bars.
The partition of the outgoing long wave radiation into upward atmospheric emittance and surface transmitted radiation components is based
on the accurate computation of the true greenhouse - gas optical thickness for the
radiosonde data.