Shibata et al. (Kitami Institute of Technology); 5.4; Heuristic, Statistical Prediction is based
on sea ice thickness, summer melt, outflow, and cloudiness.
Zhang and Lindsay, 4.60 (4.00 - 5.20), Modeling Our seasonal prediction focuses not only on the total Arctic sea ice extent, but also
on sea ice thickness field and ice edge location.
Some skill in predictability is possible based
on the sea ice thickness distribution in spring.
Zhang, 5.1 (+ / - 0.6), Modeling The seasonal prediction focuses not only on the total Arctic sea ice extent, but also
on sea ice thickness field and ice edge location.
In the Antarctic, there is very sparse data
on sea ice thickness — not enough to judge one way or another, leaving only climate modeling results to work with.
Regarding my # 74:
On sea ice thickness, here is an unreviewed but sensible discussion / analysis of Arctic sea ice volume and thickness as modeled by PIOMAS.
Not exact matches
Researchers from Norway and China have collaborated
on developing an autonomous buoy with instruments that can more precisely measure the optical properties of Arctic
sea ice while also taking measurements of
ice thickness and temperature.
In addition to the
thickness of the snow cover
on top of the
sea ice, the buoys also measure the air temperature and air pressure.
From an altitude of just over 700 km, CryoSat will precisely monitor changes in the
thickness of
sea ice and variations in the
thickness of the
ice sheets
on land.
First, we expect the
ice thickness distribution in April 30 from redistribution (divergence / convergence) of
sea ice during December and April, based
on the daily
ice velocity data.
However,
sea ice then grows very rapidly, since the growth rate for thin
ice is much higher than for thick
ice, which acts as a negative feedback
on thickness during the growth season (Bitz and Roe, 2004; Notz, 2009).
So what we need is detailed topo maps of the bed and
thickness of the GIS, and to work out a map of the «net buoyancy», or some such (i.e. total
ice area density subtracted from the area density of a hypothetical column of water resting
on the bed and extending up to
sea level).
And you are correct that it depends
on the
thickness of the
ice and the depression below
sea level.
Professor Peter Wadhams, member of AMEG, expert
on Arctic
sea ice and a reviewer for the IPCC AR5 report, says that the PIOMAS data is based
on actual
thickness measurements.
You'll find some links to
sea ice thickness data
on my blog's most recent «Miscellanea» post.
The team, which Marc led and provided the logistical support for, deployed from Resolute to Nord Greenland before setting up a rustic field camp
on the
sea ice for six days, during which time we mechanically drilled the
ice to measure
thickness, measuring snow depth in a grid pattern along the flight lines as well as dragging instruments along the surface that produced the same measurements for comparison to the airborne data.
And variations in the
thickness and extent of
sea ice cloaking the Arctic Ocean are driven by yet another set of complicating factors, ranging from long - term shifts in atmospheric pressure patterns to events as close - focus as the potent Arctic superstorm I reported
on earlier this month.
Canadian
Ice Service, 4.7, Multiple Methods As with CIS contributions in June 2009, 2010, and 2011, the 2012 forecast was derived using a combination of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter arctic ice thicknesses and extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
Ice Service, 4.7, Multiple Methods As with CIS contributions in June 2009, 2010, and 2011, the 2012 forecast was derived using a combination of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based
on observed end - of - winter arctic
ice thicknesses and extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
ice thicknesses and extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT),
Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic
Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and
sea ice predicto
sea ice predicto
ice predictors.
A threshold h applied
on the (
thickness Feb = Mar concentration Sept) field yields the predicted September extent after the regression with the past four years of
sea ice extent observations.
Canadian
Ice Service, 4.7 (+ / - 0.2), Heuristic / Statistical (same as June) The 2015 forecast was derived by considering a combination of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
Ice Service, 4.7 (+ / - 0.2), Heuristic / Statistical (same as June) The 2015 forecast was derived by considering a combination of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based
on observed end - of - winter Arctic
ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature,
Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September
sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and
sea ice predicto
sea ice predicto
ice predictors.
Based
on February / March SMOS
sea ice thickness and September SSMI
sea ice concentration we provide a heuristic / statistical guesstimate for the 2015 September
sea ice extent: 3.6 + / - 0.7.
Aspin et al., 4.0, Heuristic
Sea ice extent is greater
on 05 June 2013 than a year ago, however
ice thicknesses and volumes are,
on average, the lowest
on record.
ESA's
ice mission has become the first satellite to provide information
on Arctic
sea -
ice thickness in near - real time to aid maritime activities in the polar region.
Currently, the NASA IceBridge mission supplies both
sea ice thickness and snow depth measurements in spring, providing timely information
on the state of the
ice cover as the melt season begins.
Sea ice extent,
thickness and volume are all normal, yet the Flat Earth Society of climate scientists drones
on endlessly about an
ice - free Arctic — which they will never live to see.
The
thickness of Arctic
sea ice has also been
on a steady decline over the last several decades.
On the text on the extent of Arctic sea ice, the UK asked about changes in Arctic sea ice thickness and the US about summer sea ice extent, to which the CLAs replied that this information is discussed in detail in the underlying assessmen
On the text
on the extent of Arctic sea ice, the UK asked about changes in Arctic sea ice thickness and the US about summer sea ice extent, to which the CLAs replied that this information is discussed in detail in the underlying assessmen
on the extent of Arctic
sea ice, the UK asked about changes in Arctic
sea ice thickness and the US about summer
sea ice extent, to which the CLAs replied that this information is discussed in detail in the underlying assessment.
A comparison of the modeled
ice thickness on 1 June 2007, 2008, and 2009, and the initial
ice thickness on 28 May 2010 reveals considerably larger
ice thickness mainly in the East Siberian
Sea, north of the East Siberian
Sea, and in the vicinity of the North Pole in 2010 compared to 2007 — 2009.
Peter Wadhams, President of the International Association
on Sea Ice and Head of the Polar Ocean Physics Group / Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, says: «It is quite urgent that we recognize what is going on... the ice has been getting thinner over the last 40 years since I have been measuring it, and it has lost about one - half of its thickness... five years ago the shrinkage started to accelera
Ice and Head of the Polar Ocean Physics Group / Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, says: «It is quite urgent that we recognize what is going
on... the
ice has been getting thinner over the last 40 years since I have been measuring it, and it has lost about one - half of its thickness... five years ago the shrinkage started to accelera
ice has been getting thinner over the last 40 years since I have been measuring it, and it has lost about one - half of its
thickness... five years ago the shrinkage started to accelerate.
It is hypothesized that these delayed responses reflect the dynamical influence of the AO
on the
thickness of the wintertime
sea ice, whose persistent «footprint» is reflected in the heat fluxes during the subsequent spring, in the extent of open water during the subsequent summer, and the heat liberated in the freezing of the open water during the subsequent autumn.»
Reasoning for a decrease in
sea ice extent from recent years, perhaps approaching new record - low minimum, focuses
on the below - normal
sea ice thickness overall, the thinning of
sea ice in coastal
seas, rotting of old multi-year
sea ice, warm temperatures in April and May 2010, and the rapid loss of
sea ice area seen during May.
Reasoning for a new record minimum focuses
on the below - normal
ice thickness overall, the thinning of
sea ice in coastal
seas, rotting of old multi-year
sea ice, and the rapid loss of
sea ice area seen during May.
However, our monthly
sea ice volumes calculated from NRT and standard data agree to within 0.5 %
on average, which shows that the NRT data allow us provide users with a reliable operational
thickness and volume product.
One of the important ingredients of the new model is data
on the
thickness of
ice floating
on the
sea.
The new
ice thickness estimates will also be used to improve
on - going seasonal predictions of
sea ice extent.
Arctic
sea ice thickness variability and its influence
on the atmospheric response to projected
sea ice loss.
On page 16 here: https://curryja.files.wordpress.com/2014/10/
sea-
ice-physical-processes.pdf There is the «Annual cycle of net surface heat flux for various
ice thicknesses» Roughly interpolating the no
sea ice flux I got an average of — 310 Wm2 over the course of a year.
``... examination of records of fast
ice thickness and
ice extent from four Arctic marginal
seas (Kara, Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi) indicates that long - term trends are small and generally statistically insignificant, while trends for shorter records are not indicative of the long - term tendencies due to strong low - frequency variability in these time series, which places a strong limitation
on our ability to resolve long - term trends....
Changes in
sea ice extent, timing,
ice thickness, and seasonal fluctuations are already having an impact
on the people, plants, and animals that live in the Arctic.
5.3.7 In the Polar Regions, the main effect foreseen is a reduction in
thickness and extent of glaciers,
ice sheets,
sea ice, and permafrost, and associated impacts
on infrastructures, ecosystems, and traditional ways of life.
Zhang and Lindsay, 5.1 (± 0.4), Modeling Our seasonal prediction focuses not only
on the total Arctic
sea ice extent and
ice concentration field, but also
on ice thickness field and
ice edge location.
Kaleschke and Tian - Kunze, 3.6 (± 0.7), Heuristic / Statistical (same as June) Based
on February / March SMOS
sea ice thickness and September SSMI
sea ice concentration we provide a heuristic / statistical guesstimate for the 2015 September
sea ice extent: 3.6 (± 0.7) million km2.
Canadian
Ice Service, 4.7 (± 0.2), Heuristic / Statistical (same as June) The 2015 forecast was derived by considering a combination of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
Ice Service, 4.7 (± 0.2), Heuristic / Statistical (same as June) The 2015 forecast was derived by considering a combination of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based
on observed end - of - winter Arctic
ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature,
Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September
sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and
sea ice predicto
sea ice predicto
ice predictors.
The Outlook also underscored important lessons for improvements in future efforts, including: a need for additional work
on remote sensing of spring and summer
sea ice conditions;
sea ice thickness data; and more formal forecasting and evaluation methods.
«Impacts of Assimilating Satellite
Sea Ice Concentration and
Thickness on Arctic
Sea Ice Prediction in the NCEP Climate Forecast System» J. Climate 0, (https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0093.1).
As noted last month, this range depends in part
on the relative weight that the respondents give to «initial conditions,» e.g., age and
thickness of
sea ice at the end of spring, versus whether summer winds in 2008 will be as supportive for
ice loss as the favorable winds were in 2007.
Instead, we are interested in isolating the role of
sea ice thickness on the atmosphere and quantifying its contribution compared to
sea ice concentration.
The findings are based
on satellite readings of Antarctic
sea ice movement and
thickness, as well as new, detailed interpretations of charts showing the shape of the
sea bottom around Antarctica.
The mean
ice concentration anomaly for June 2013 is 0.9 x 106 square kilometers greater than June 2012, however Arctic
sea ice thicknesses and volumes continue to remain the lowest
on record.
In this study, we conduct sensitivity experiments to isolate the role of
sea ice thickness on the atmospheric circulation.