Sentences with phrase «on simple extrapolations»

And we know that house prices can deviate in a meaningful way from underlying fundamentals, especially if expectations of price gains are based on simple extrapolations and become disconnected from economic fundamentals.

Not exact matches

Finally, I showed that a simple extrapolation of this robust linear trend means that Pharma's IRR will hit 0 % by 2020, which implies that the industry is now on the brink of terminal decline as it enters a vicious cycle of negative growth with diminishing sales and investment into R&D.

Gavin says in # 463: [Response: You confuse statistical forecasting which knows nothing about the underlying physics (and in your case is simple linear extrapolation) with physical modelling based on first principles.

[Response: You confuse statistical forecasting which knows nothing about the underlying physics (and in your case is simple linear extrapolation) with physical modelling based on first principles.

If sea level begins changing more rapidly, for example due to rapid changes in ice sheet dynamics, then this simple extrapolation will likely represent a conservative lower bound on future sea - level change.

Coupled with the average climate - change — driven rate of sea level rise over these same 25 y of 2.9 mm / y, simple extrapolation of the quadratic implies global mean sea level could rise 65 ± 12 cm by 2100 compared with 2005, roughly in agreement with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5) model projections.

Simple extrapolation from hindcasts sheds little light on the problem.