Sharper sportsbooks will not adjust their lines based
on square bettors, and do not change their lines lightly.
Right now, this movement appears to be based on public money as opposed to sharp money, so there is added value on the Dolphins based
on square bettors.
Not exact matches
A majority of
bettors are considered to be
squares — casual weekend warriors who place their wagers mainly based
on instinct.
On the other hand,
square books like Bovada and Sportsbook have low limits and aren't going to be taking any large bets from the world's sharpest
bettors.
Square bettors are prone to betting these games for one simple reason — they plan
on watching the game and they want some sort of vested interest.
In David Purdum's recent article at ESPN Chalk, he reports that large bets by
square bettors taking the short trip from California have been
on the Dodgers, but sportsbooks expect sharp money to come in
on the Astros for both game 1 and the series.
Because you were always laying a minus number, betting
on favorites burned a huge hole in the pockets of
square bettors.
By capitalizing
on overreactions and the predictable actions of casual
bettors (sometimes known as
squares), a contrarian can exploit mispriced or artificially inflated lines.
Square bettors come out of the woodwork and get down hard
on these games, causing the ticket counts to skyrocket (
on average, these games are getting 20 - 40K bets, similar to an NFL game).
Bovada is a very
square sportsbook and they typically offer far better odds
on the underdog, however, as we explained in a recent article,
square bettors tend to gravitate towards underdogs during the postseason.
Without any action to get down
on (besides the Home Run Derby and Midsummer Classic itself), sharp and
square bettors alike are forced to...
Although sportsbooks know this information and build it into line, these «
square»
bettors often create artificial value by heavily betting the favorite and forcing sportsbooks to shade their lines to encourage action
on the other side (typically the underdog).
If ESPN spends all week hyping LeBron James and promoting his legacy, these
square bettors will likely load up
on the Heat and create artificial value
on their opponent.
With public
bettors now able to cash in
on Notre Dame if they win by two touchdowns, I don't expect many
squares leaning towards Wake Forest unless the line moves back to 14 or higher.
Without any action to get down
on (besides the Home Run Derby and Midsummer Classic itself), sharp and
square bettors alike are forced to take a step back, reflect
on their first - half performance, re-examine winning and losing strategies and prepare for the second - half of the season.
The line hasn't reached 6.5 anywhere all week and likely won't since most last minute
bettors will be
squares on the Chiefs.
For example, an uninformed (or
square)
bettor is more prone to bet
on the favorite regardless of the point spread.
Past research has found that
square bettors tend to place more value
on high - powered offenses than stout defenses, and this false perception can easily be exploited.
Betting against the public is a profitable strategy, but
bettors need to ensure that sharps and
squares aren't
on the same side.
There is a theory that
square bettors are getting more sophisticated, but there is one thing hasn't changed over time:
bettors love betting
on good teams, no matter what number they are laying.
The whole concept of betting against the public is based
on the idea that «
square» or uninformed public
bettors create artificial line value by pounding one side — typically the favorite or the over.
Sports Insights bases its
Square Plays
on its contacts within the industry (including sports books and «sharp»
bettors), actual money bet, and other sources — to get VALUE for their members.
This makes sense as
bettors are understandably more interested in laying money
on a UNC / Duke rivalry game than they are when two random mid-majors
square off.
When you say «Oddsmakers are more willing to move the line
on a $ 5000 bet from a sharp
bettor than they would for a $ 25000 bet from a
square.»
With
square bettors eager to bet
on any football game that they can (we tracked ~ 47k bets
on the 5 NBA games last night, ~ 40k
on the 3 MACtion games), there are more than 60 % of bets
on the over for each of the three games.
During the playoffs, the number of bets placed
on every game nearly doubles, with much of the action from
square bettors.
Oddsmakers are more willing to move the line
on a $ 5000 bet from a sharp
bettor than they would for a $ 25000 bet from a
square.
In a heavily bet game, uninformed «
square»
bettors can actually move the line which allows sharp
bettors to pounce
on «Team B» at +11 instead of +10.
If too many
square bettors load up
on one side (typically caused by an overreaction to recent results), oddsmakers will need to even the weight by adjusting the line and encouraging action
on their opponent.
This level of public support is typical after an impressive win
on national television; however, it would appear that
square bettors may be overvaluing the Broncos.
This indicates that most sportsbooks have likely been taking big money from sharp
bettors on Pittsburgh to counter the influx of public /
square money
on Indianapolis.
This game currently ranks fifth in terms of number of bets placed, but
square bettors often like to bet games that are
on television, so that number could increase significantly (tonight's game is nationally televised).
If you're truly looking for value betting
on Super Bowl futures, don't look for these trendy teams whose prices are being over-inflated by
square bettors and don't overreact to free agency hype.
Typically this is a randomized process where
bettors are randomly assigned their
squares, although some pools (
on rare occasion) will allow you to choose your own
squares in a bidding process.
BetOnline, a renowned «
square» sportsbook that caters to casual
bettors, first posted their Week 1 College Football lines
on July 1st.
With
square bettors having early season success, now may be the perfect time to buy low
on some of the nation's least popular teams.
This would seem to indicate that both sharp and
square bettors are both
on New York this weekend.
Additionally, this line movement seems to be driven completely by
square bettors as there have been no betting systems triggered
on this game.
It appears that
square bettors are hammering «impeachment» but sharp money is actually
on «resign.»
There are relatively few
square bettors early in the college basketball regular season, so oddsmakers will usually adjust their lines based
on sharp action.
Most
bettors can be classified as
squares: recreational weekend warriors who place their wagers based
on instinct, rather than data and analysis.
Square bettors are prone to overreacting to recent events, and we are consistently able to find value by capitalizing
on public perception.
These blue blood programs are sure to attract most of the action as
square bettors like to bet
on teams and head coaches they are familiar with and have a lot of tournament experience.
Despite the majority of
squares backing TCU, sharp
bettors are
on Kansas State.