And it isn't as though Compass isn't able to organise a quick ballot — it did so during the election campaign
on tactical voting, but that's another story.
If at a General Election the national figures were Conservative 44 % Labour 26 % Liberal Democrat 17 % then I rather suspect that actually the majority would be of over 150 - the Liberal Democrats might manage to hold onto as many as 40 seats, Labour would go way down though below 200 seats, the Conservatives would probably break through 400 seats, it does depend a lot
on tactical voting, however the likliehood of a such a result in the next 10 years is virtually nil, in the longer term I would say it was quite probable at some stage in the future once the Labour government finally collapses.
Moving on there were some interesting bits of data about tactical voting, particularly in the first Populus poll, back in November 2004, which was conducted in 160 Conservative target seats and included some questions
on tactical voting behaviour.
The problem for Clegg is that this almost certainly depended
on tactical voting, which was a major factor in the Liberal Democrats» original 1997 victory in Hallam.
Not exact matches
Because of the advantages of
tactical voting, most people concentrate
on a popular candidate who is good enough.
Separating such a
vote into two can lead to dependence
on the ordering of the two
votes if the result of the first
vote is announced before the second (which could lead to
tactical choices by the organizers), or to the possibility of very unappealing pairs of choices winning if the first result is kept secret.
The writing was
on the wall for the chief secretary to the Treasury, who even with help from some
tactical voting unionists just wasn't able to cobble together anything like the support he needed to stay in Westminster.
We could get a different kind of
tactical voting, where people try to send messages through the
voting system by
voting for single - issue candidates first, then the candidate they want second,
on the assumption that the single - issue candidate will be knocked out before the candidate they want.
The group has around 2,000 supporters
on Facebook and says it is planning to begin door - knocking in seats where it thinks
tactical voting could make a difference.
And it has the additional benefits of eliminating the need for
tactical voting while conferring greater democratic legitimacy
on the elected MP.
Faced with a surge of SNP support that threatens to have a decisive impact
on the makeup of the next government, Scotland - always a part of the UK ripe for this sort of thing - has seen an outbreak of
tactical voting in recent weeks.
The prospect that the SNP might hoover up the vast bulk of Scotland's representation
on little more than 45 % has led to quite a lot of speculation about the possibility of anti-SNP
tactical voting.
By contrast Polly Toynbee in the Guardian
on Thursday made a well argued case for classic anti-Tory
tactical voting by Green and Labour supporters.
Days later he pulled the plug
on the Commons
vote and won an important
tactical battle which left the PM embarrassed and weakened for a time.
Some forces previously
on Labour's left have joined this campaign, calling for «
tactical voting», i.e. not making the priority to maximise the Labour
vote.
The other standard trackers all paint an equally bleak picture for the government,
on the forced choice question (which I always tend to think of our best indicator of which way
tactical voting is likely to go next time round, given that there are no regular tracker questions that ask directly about it) the Conservatives now enjoy a 12 point lead over Labour, they have an 8 point lead as the party most likely to run the economy well, David Cameron has an 8 point lead as Best Prime Minister.
«To be clear: I am not urging
tactical voting or some anti-Tory alliance; I am urging that, as part of this election campaign, we create the capacity for the people to know exactly what the choices are; and elect as many MPs as possible with an open mind
on this issue who are prepared to
vote according to the quality of the deal and the interests of the British people.»
The Government has now been defeated four times by a
tactical alliance of Labour, the SNP and the Lib Dems — including
on a Budget
vote.
After weeks of delay and
tactical disagreements inside the cabinet, Brown staked his authority
on committing his party not just to a referendum
on the alternative
vote, but also to making the law introducing the referendum a legislative priority in the remaining six weeks of parliament before the election is called.
Maybe closer to the election the Liberal Democrats will benefit from voters focusing more
on the specific situation in their constituency, with
tactical voting and incumbency effects kicking in.
Cable did not say whether he would push for a progressive alliance at the next general election, but as a former Labour councillor many expect he would be keen
on the idea of
tactical voting to help Lib Dem, Labour and Green candidates to oust Tory MPs.
I deliberately excluded that from my answer for
tactical reasons (I didn't want to hurt an extensive answer by downvotes from many P.SE users who
vote on pure partisan lines), but there's enough evidence to post a separate answer showing that Trump has a strong basis for claiming there may be fraud - how impactful, if of course impossible to quantify at the moment.
Although Nick Clegg hung
on in Sheffield Hallam, due to some
tactical voting from Conservative supporters, the party has been decimated in this election.
UKIP leader Nigel Farage says Labour's election manifesto lacks any «specifics»
on how Labour will cut spending and he says
tactical voting could help UKIP win seats.
In turn, these swing seats see a huge amount of
tactical voting based
on who might beat the «greater of two evils».
On the one hand, coalition government has massively boosted the potential for
tactical voting: it's made many Conservatives comfortable backing Lib Dems and vice versa.
I wonder how many (anti-Labour)
tactical votes were wasted
on Lib Dems here in 2015, and if Conservatives will be the main beneficiaries of them (though Lib Dem - UKIP switching is more common than often given credit for, too).
On a uniform swing this level of support would still leave the Conservatives 9 seats short of an overall majority, though in practice it is likely that such a reverse in the positions of the parties would be accompanied by changes in the pattern of
tactical voting, meaning that the Conservatives might well get an overall majority.
Case in point: Whitehouse arguably made a
tactical mistake this week by offering an amendment that simply forced a
vote on whether climate change is «real and not a hoax.»