The morning's main domestic political story was that Theresa May intended to make next month's Commons vote
on customs union membership a «confidence issue».
If you watched the Tory opposition yesterday you could just about see the numbers for the government to be
defeated on the customs union amendment coming back from the Lords next month.
An
amendment on the customs union (supported by the Liberal Democrats and some Crossbenchers, Labour and Conservative peers) was passed by 348 votes to 225.
But it's still hard to see how defeating the
government on the customs union leads to change on the single market, let alone any notion of staying in the EU.
It's a sign of how politically uncertain things are that many political journalists spent yesterday's Commons
debate on the customs union watching carefully for individual Tory MPs to make critical arguments.
There are a group of about 30 MPs - people like Conor McGinn and Phil Wilson - who, while staunchly pro-Europe, represent northern working class seats and have been supportive of Keir Starmer and a gradual shift to a firm
position on the customs union.
The EU published its draft Brexit withdrawal treaty this week amid escalating confusion about the role of the European Court of Justice (ECJ), clamour over the transition period, a potentially game - changing move by the Labour
Party on the customs union issue and news that the Scottish Government will publish its own Brexit Bill.
The EU published its draft Brexit withdrawal treaty this week amid escalating confusion about the role of the European Court of Justice (ECJ), clamour over the transition period, a potentially game - changing move by the Labour Party
on the customs union issue and news that the Scottish Government
Idea two is a customs partnership, which is either an invented system already rejected by the EU or a sneaky
rebranding on customs union membership - no - one is quite sure, including probably herself.
The House of Lords is making remarkable
progress on customs union membership and a powerful case is being made for an association agreement that allows us to retain single market membership and freedom of movement.
Behind the Downing Street unity spin the Cabinet is split with Philip Hammond versus David Davis and Liam
Fox on the customs union.
The government is caught in a four - way pincer
movement on the customs union, each part of which gains confidence from the resilience of the others.
After a year of preparation, the Brexit department's
offering on the customs union is a mess of unrealistic expectations and untested IT solutions.
Theresa May's precarious path to Brexit has meant crunch votes
on a customs union with the EU were delayed until after these elections.
The design and high - end manufacture of components often takes place elsewhere in the EU, which again leaves our manufacturers highly
dependent on the customs union.
Corbyn has never seemed that
keen on the customs union, but he has faced pressure both from members of his team — the shadow Brexit secretary Keir Starmer has played a key role — and the fact that the majority of Labour members support customs union and single market membership.
Labour may try to force vote
on customs union after backbench debate, as shadow Brexit secretary criticises PM
But it's a high - profile
defeat on the customs union - with Conservative rebels and independent crossbenchers teaming up to urge the government not to rule out continued membership of the EU's tariff - free zone - that's generated the most heat.
Speaking during a pre-vote
debate on the customs union, former minister Soubry said: «It can't be right that the overwhelming majority of honourable and right honourable members in this place agree that we should be in the customs union and the single market.
Downing Street has denied speculation that Theresa May would put her premiership on the line in a looming Commons
vote on the customs union.
Downing Street has denied speculation that Theresa May would put her premiership on the line in a looming Commons vote
on the customs union.Downing Street has denied speculation that Theresa May would put her premiership on the line in a looming Commons vote on the customs union.Downing Street has denied speculation that Theresa May would put her premiership on the line in a looming Commons vote on the customs union.
But some of the Lords amendments, including
those on a customs union and on the meaningful vote, received significant Conservative support on the Lords, which could strengthen the convictions of waverers in the Commons.
Pro-Remain Tories have joined their Labour counterparts to force a Commons vote
on the customs union this Thursday in the hope of bouncing the Government into a U-turn.