Powerpoint for IB Physics Unit 1, containing 17 slides
on uncertainty calculations, both numerical calculations and from graphs (error bars, gradient uncertainties).
Powerpoint for IB Physics Unit 1, containing 17 slides
on uncertainty calculations, both numerical calculations and from graphs (error bars, gradie...
Not exact matches
Additional
uncertainty in these
calculations arises from the assumption that a 10 per cent GST has the same effect
on the retail price as a 10 per cent WST, even though the WST is levied at an earlier stage of production and therefore represents a smaller amount of tax for a given tax rate.
Their latest
calculation, based
on the oldest light that telescopes can detect, is 14.0 billion years with an
uncertainty of just 500 million years — the tightest age constraint yet, and slightly older than the going estimate of around 13 billion years.
«Our results show that the
uncertainty estimates of greenhouse gas inventories depend
on the
calculation method and
on how the input data for the model, such as weather and litterfall data, have been averaged,» says Aleksi Lehtonen, researcher at the Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke).
There is a quantitative effect of this error, both
on global average
calculations up to the 1970's and
on the
uncertainty of that number.
Depending
on what you are looking at, it could have a bottom up estimate of aerosol forcing or aerosol forcings from a residual
calculation — neither of which really have the range of
uncertainty.
There are
uncertainties in parts of the general circulation models used to forecast future climate, but thousands of scientists have made meticulous efforts to make sure that the processes are based
on observations of basic physics, laboratory measurements, and sound theoretical
calculations.
The present method of making this
calculation relies
on sparse enough data stations that improvement is quite possible since the
uncertainty introduced by interpolation could be reduced.
These are the probabilities of the given years being the warmest
on record, using
calculations based upon the
uncertainties (and the shape of those
uncertainties) associated with each year's value.
Structural
uncertainty is attenuated when convergent results are obtained from a variety of different models using different methods, and also when results rely more
on direct observations (data) rather than
on calculations.
And to your point, they also only focus
on the lower bounds of
uncertainty, poo poo the the statistically most likely figure, and act as though the highest
uncertainty figure wasn't even part of the
calculation.
These
calculations, based
on ERBE and CERES observational data, are themselves subject to considerable
uncertainty, but are consistent with a positive imbalance (more incoming than outgoing energy) that would be expected from greenhouse gas forcing.
It turns out that Nic had an abridged version of his
calculation back
on the Quantifying
Uncertainties thread some weeks ago, see his comment here.
Our best estimate is based
on the data (both temps and proxies) we have, the physics we know, and the proper application of
uncertainty calculations.
A more detailed model of the dynamics of the changes might have a small effect
on the outcome, but not at a level that would make any difference in comparison with the other
uncertainties of the
calculation.
Unlike the precision
on scientific
calculations where digits are discarded due to
uncertainty in the components, for Big Data — the greatest single component accuracy is used as a basis for all the rest!
I am still working
on some
uncertainties in the
calculation and lowering the amount.