Why does the value investing community focus so heavily
on valuation multiples (P / E, P / B, P / S, EV / EBIT, etc.)?
That implies some fairly steady downward pressure
on valuation multiples.
But normalizing growth and inflation would also put pressure
on valuation multiples to normalize, because current multiples rely almost entirely on a zero - interest rate world.
Not exact matches
Even though the correlation is strong, there are times when the total return
on stocks has been positive, even as the
valuation multiple declined.
But as BMO Capital Markets analyst Tim Casey recently pointed out, the industry still appears to be
on death row because of the «gradual but unrelenting erosion of revenues, operating margins and
valuation multiples.»
While
valuation for all companies depends
on growth and momentum, a Software as a Service business such as Salesforce or Workday typically also takes into account customer churn percentage and
multiples of monthly recurring revenue (MRR).
«Mr. Wonderful» is notorious for taking a very pragmatic approach to
valuation based
on multiples, but each industry is different,» Ahmad says.
Using those
multiples, you'd get a
valuation,
on the high end, of about $ 4.5 billion.
So we took a look at our data
on private market
valuation multiples to see how publicly - traded cloud storage and file - sharing company Box compares to still - private Dropbox.
The company's strengths can be seen in
multiple areas, such as its revenue growth, reasonable
valuation levels, largely solid financial position with reasonable debt levels by most measures and notable return
on equity.
The company's strengths can be seen in
multiple areas, such as its reasonable
valuation levels, expanding profit margins, largely solid financial position with reasonable debt levels by most measures and notable return
on equity.
These Fed - induced speculative
valuations are now evident across the board, as the median price / revenue
multiple on S&P 500 components (as well as S&P 1500 components) is now the highest in history, easily exceeding the 2000 peak.
The HFRI Relative Value (Total) Index is managed by maintaining positions in which the investment thesis is predicated
on realization of a
valuation discrepancy in the relationship between
multiple securities.
We track these and have found that for private company exits, we can find about 35 % with
valuations for private companies (real or rumored) and make these available
on our private company
valuation multiple search tool.
With an emphasis
on small investments in capital efficient businesses with low entry
valuations and high ownership, small funds can produce attractive returns from more modest sub $ 110 million M&A exits and generate outsized returns from one or two «homerun» exits which can return
multiples of the fund's total committed capital.
The
valuation is based
on the average price - to - book value
multiple of three publicly traded peers: First Midwest Bancorp, MB Financial and UMB Financial.
It's important to emphasize that I don't view any of these groups as «undervalued» - even the largest stocks are above historical norms of
valuation (with various individual exceptions), and even apparently «low» P / E
multiples should be evaluated critically since they're
on record earnings.
The company's strengths can be seen in
multiple areas, such as its notable return
on equity, attractive
valuation levels, expanding profit margins, good cash flow from operations and increase in stock price during the past year.
As usual, I don't place too much emphasis
on this sort of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already high price / peak earnings
multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for market losses, particularly given that the current bull market has now outlived the median and average bull, yet at higher
valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal divergence as measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weakness.
HFRI Relative Value Index maintains positions in which the investment thesis is predicated
on realization of a
valuation discrepancy in the relationship between
multiple securities.
Now trading
on a price to earnings
multiple of 16 times, Service Stream's
valuation is beginning to factor in plenty of certainty at an uncertain time.
The S&P 500 registered a record high after an advancing half - cycle since 2009 that is historically long - in - the - tooth and already exceeds the
valuation peaks set at every cyclical extreme in history but 2000
on the S&P 500 (across all stocks, current median price / earnings, price / revenue and enterprise value / EBITDA
multiples already exceed the 2000 extreme).
After all, a moderate price / earnings
multiple on elevated earnings does not imply moderate
valuation.
«The later stages of the 2009 — 2017 bull market are a
valuation illusion built
on share buyback alchemy... The technique optically reduces the price - to - earnings
multiple because the denominator doesn't adjust for the reduced share count... Share buybacks are a major contributor to the low volatility regime because a large price insensitive buyer is always ready to purchase the market
on weakness... Share buybacks result in a lower volatility, lower liquidity, which in turn incentivizes more share buybacks, further incentivizing passive and systematic strategies that are short volatility in all their forms... Like a snake eating its own tail, the market can not rely
on share buybacks indefinitely to nourish the illusion of growth.
Based
on 20 years of global data and nearly 90 years of US data, the energy sector has never been cheaper
on price - to - book
multiples than it was at the end of 2015.1 The skeptics» response to these compelling headline
valuations tends to be suspicion of book values, which indeed are likely overstated in some instances and vulnerable to further impairment.
«They are often looking to capitalize
on building a brand capable of commanding the high
valuation multiples that have dominated the industry over the past few years.
On valuations, it is important to note that the market entered February with
multiples at multi-year highs.
Financial Statements Valuing a Company Based
on Its Revenues The price - to - sales ratio is considered to be one of the ï ¿ 1/2 cleanestï ¿ 1/2
valuation multiples; it is also more tied to profit margin than you may realize.
As a side note, we're quite aware of the seemingly «reasonable»
valuation of the market,
on the basis of the forward operating earnings estimates of Wall Street analysts, at least
on the basis of simplistic «price / forward earnings»
multiples.
Intuitively, a
valuation multiple of half the historical norm has the opposite impact
on subsequent returns as a
valuation multiple of twice the historical norm.]
After weeding out bad businesses the next needle (s) to pass is the parallel decision
on if this good stock is also cheep judging from the absolute level of a number of
valuation multiples and if the investor in the process of analyzing the qualities and inexpensiveness of the stock has been free from biases.
Rather than rely
on past averages to forecast future returns, we use a building - block approach that adds current yield, likely long - term growth in income, and some mean reversion in
valuation multiples to create forward - looking returns.
One way to project future expected returns, and to analyze past returns, is to separate them into a component that comes from growth in fundamentals and the component that comes from the change in the
valuation multiple on those fundamentals.
I try to keep cash levels based
on risks associated with the current absolute
valuation multiples as well as my assessment of sustainability of current margins.
This
valuation looks inexpensive
on an absolute basis, and especially when we factor in the high earnings growth expectations: With a PE
multiple of 15.6 and an expected EPS growth rate of 21 % Lowe's trades at a PEG ratio of just 0.74.
That contribution can vary, but
on average, about 80 percent of the one - year price gain (or loss) is typically driven by rising (or falling)
valuation multiples.
The speculative component rose above 100 percent during the 2008 - 2009 bear market, when the drop in
valuation multiples made up the entire loss in share value,
on average.
Research papers
on valuation metrics: TEV to EBITDA Research and enterprise -
multiple - vs - tobins - q
Now consider the growth stock: It actually ends up delivering a consistent 15 % annual gain in revenue & earnings — based
on that performance, your fair value estimate rises accordingly & we can be pretty confident the market's happy to maintain or increase its
valuation multiple.
Even if they did, and you value the company at an appropriate P / E and / or P / S
multiple based
on those metrics, I'd be hard pressed to come up with a
valuation much higher than today's market price.
Let's split the difference, and base our
valuation on an average / assumed operating margin of 19.8 % — which deserves at least a 1.75 Price / Sales
multiple, in my opinion.
Value investors tend to focus far too much attention
on this potential change in the
valuation multiple, and often ignore what's otherwise a company that offers a poor return
on capital.
They also performed a comparison with current
valuations for a (select) group of public investment management firms —
on average, the TAM transaction's valued at 75 % of the minimum
multiple & just 49 % of the median
multiple.
CRH's FY - 2015 EBIT margin was 5.6 %, which compares to a peak 9.9 % margin (back in 2007)-- so relying
on the company's actual Op FCF margin (of 8.3 %) seems appropriate here for
valuation purposes & deserves a 0.75 P / S
multiple.
This neatly side - steps the issue of fair value altogether, which obviously helps avoid the temptation to exclusively focus
on & assume a sudden step - up in a stock's
valuation multiple.
On balance, a valuation based simply on current metrics seems neither too harsh nor too optimistic — there are still plenty of higher TV / radio M&A multiples to reference, but I think a 12 P / E and a 2.0 P / S ratio (based on a 21.8 % operating profit margin) are pretty neutral values to appl
On balance, a
valuation based simply
on current metrics seems neither too harsh nor too optimistic — there are still plenty of higher TV / radio M&A multiples to reference, but I think a 12 P / E and a 2.0 P / S ratio (based on a 21.8 % operating profit margin) are pretty neutral values to appl
on current metrics seems neither too harsh nor too optimistic — there are still plenty of higher TV / radio M&A
multiples to reference, but I think a 12 P / E and a 2.0 P / S ratio (based
on a 21.8 % operating profit margin) are pretty neutral values to appl
on a 21.8 % operating profit margin) are pretty neutral values to apply.
In fact, the Monaghan stake is ultimately responsible for my
valuation premium to Book: A 15 P / E
multiple for this stake may seem aggressive, but it's
on what looks like a temporary profit dip, and the implied
valuation is undemanding considering their recent EUR 100 mio capex programme.
Its current property
valuation & yield, occupancy rate, colossal 66 % discount to NAV, plus the presence of
multiple activist investors
on its board / register, all offer significant operational & share price upside potential.
Again, I'll split the difference (vs. a 30 % margin) & base my
valuation on an average / assumed operating margin of 21.6 % — which I think now deserves a 2.0 P / S
multiple.
As we demonstrate in the attached «DHT Peer
Valuation», DHT's stock price is presently at a 75 % or greater discount to its value at its peers» average
multiples of 2010 and 2011 EBITDA, i.e. an implied stock price of approximately $ 6.16 - $ 6.41 (versus $ 3.52
on 2/26/10) were it valued like its peers.