Sentences with phrase «oncoming recession»

An inverted yield curve has indeed been an early warning sign of an oncoming recession.

Since 1960, an inverted Treasury yield curve has been among the most reliable indicators of an oncoming recession.

As of last week, the Market Climate in stocks remained negative, with our economic measures still solidly anticipating an oncoming recession.

Although stock market declines have been a less than perfect indicator of an oncoming recession, the record of bear markets coinciding with recessions is impressive.

However, using freely available economic data we derive a reliable signal that warns of an oncoming recession.

As usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already high price / peak earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for market losses, particularly given that the current bull market has now outlived the median and average bull, yet at higher valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal divergence as measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weakness.

While leading measures and our Recession Warning Composite do not currently provide enough evidence to anticipate an oncoming recession with confidence, they do suggest much greater prospects for economic weakness than the Wall Street consensus suggests.

For quick accessibility, here's a review of useful confirming indicators of oncoming recession, aside from the indicators noted above.

Never mind that the consensus has never foreseen an oncoming recession until several months in.

In evaluating the opinions that you hear to the contrary, keep in mind that the consensus of economists, as measured by the Blue Chip Economic Survey and others, has never forecast an oncoming recession, and usually remained rosy even several months after the actual recession was eventually determined to have started.

On the economy, as I've noted before, one of the classic signals of an oncoming recession is a downward turn in the growth rate of consumer debt.

It was market action late last year that warned us of an oncoming recession and severe risk to profit margins and capital spending.

On the prospect of recession, I'm reasonably well - known as one of the only economists who correctly warned in real - time of oncoming recessions in October 2000 and again in November 2007 — both points where the consensus of economic forecasters indicated no expectation of oncoming trouble at all.

As we know, though, the stock market also tends be a leading indicator of oncoming recessions.

Not exact matches

Though we don't expect it just yet, a jump in new claims to about 20 % above year - ago levels (currently implying about 320,000 weekly new claims) would be indicative of a shift from «oncoming» to «commenced» recession.

On the economic front, despite the recent market advance and strength in payroll employment, observable economic data remain broadly consistent with the likelihood of an oncoming U.S. recession.