We first used our spread percentage filter to look at a very
basic contrarian strategy — specifically teams receiving less than 40 % of spread bets.
There may not be value betting against the public, but there are
many contrarian strategies that are effective during the preseason.
We also see a massive increase in the volume of bets, which means that many of our regular
season contrarian strategies can be thrown out the window.
In support of this contention I set out the returns to a simple
pure contrarian strategy that does not rely on any calculation of value.
Despite the struggles of our betting against the public strategy this season, this is an interesting time of the year
for contrarian strategies.
As I've stated repeatedly, the public loves betting favorites and overs, which is why most
contrarian strategies focus on underdogs and unders.
Contrarian strategy means constantly zigging when others zag, and perhaps the most overused and clichéd theory involves the supposed struggles of teams in the midst of a prolonged road trip.
Since sportsbooks will only adjust their lines based on public money in games where sharp money isn't involved, I wanted to examine the
same contrarian strategies when no Pinnacle steam moves had been triggered on the public side.
Since there's roughly three times more money wagered on the spread than the total, many
contrarian strategies work better for sides, as you can see in the table below which dates back to 2003.
Since sportsbooks will only adjust their lines based on one - sided public betting in games where sharp money isn't involved, I wanted to examine the same
contrarian strategies when no Pinnacle steam moves had been triggered on the public side.
After seeing that some of our
traditional contrarian strategies have had mixed results for second half bettors, we believed that we could create an excellent halftime betting system by capitalizing on public perception.
That basic
contrarian strategy improved to 190 - 159 ATS with last night's victory by the Cavs, but it's even more profitable if that team was blown out in their previous game.
Most
contrarian strategies tend to highlight value on the underdog, but bettors should be laying the points and taking Golden State -7.5.
Typically I would encourage bettors to fade the public, especially in these heavily bet playoff games, but bettors need to pursue other
contrarian strategies since both teams are receiving roughly half of public support.
Buying stocks only when they're «undervalued» and selling when they're «overvalued», is a
nice contrarian strategy of buying low and selling high.
Although the highest units earned comes with the most
basic contrarian strategy (< 49 %), that system would require betting a copious amount of games for a limited return.
In other words, dollar - cost averaging works because it's a
slightly contrarian strategy, where you buy more shares when the market goes down.
Bettors taking a
simple contrarian strategy have likely made a killing while square public bettors are probably in deep with loan sharks... hoping that their kneecaps survive to see another day.