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As shown on the chart below, the benchmark index bounced off near - term support of both its 20 - day MA and
prior highs yesterday (March 4):
There are times when the market is not trending Bullish or Bearish, but ranging
between prior highs and lows.
He said: «Bitcoin recoveries take 1.7 times the duration of the decline and this implies that 85 days are needed to
recover prior highs.
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As a result, we do not expect a quick return to
the prior highs although we do think higher highs for the S&P 500 are likely ahead of us before the cycle top later this year.»
However, astute traders will be building a watchlist of ETFs that were exhibiting relative strength to the broad market before the pullback began, as these will likely be the first ETFs to surge back to
their prior highs when the stock market stabilizes and finds substantial support.
The first zone of support for $ SPY is convergence of
its prior highs from November / December and 50 - day moving average (around $ 180 - $ 181).
In September 2017 it fell to a multi-year low at $ 1.70 just a few days before its name change triggered a pre-market rally in the mid-teens that tested
the prior high.
Although large - cap stocks continue to show relative strength, which enabled the Dow Jones Industrial Average to finish at a new 52 - week high (on the weekly chart), the important Nasdaq Composite remains well below
its prior highs from September of 2012.
On the daily chart of $ TNA below, notice how yesterday's intraday low correlated to support of both its 20 - day exponential moving average and new support of
the prior highs (formerly resistance):
We also see that the current base has formed just below
the prior high of 2011, so a breakout above the current range should propel the action to new highs, with no overhead resistance.
While the Dow still must overcome
its prior highs to break out, the only resistance for the Russell 2000 is its upper channel trendline (which is still 3 - 4 % away).
Furthermore, the odds of $ DZZ going to a new high are much lower than the odds of it simply going back to retest
its prior highs because now there is resistance of a major swing high (support of a key swing low in $ GLD).
Although all the major indices are back above pivotal resistance of their 50 - day moving averages (which should now act as new support), most of the main stock market indexes are still trading well below resistance of
their prior highs from May 2013.
Support is still at $ 300, and near $ 266, with
the prior high below that at $ 230.
Thereafter, odds usually favor a retest or push through of
the prior highs.
Given its convincing bullish momentum, it's probable that $ PGJ will eventually rally at least to
its prior highs of 2011 (about 15 % higher), but the ETF is likely in need of a short rest before doing so.
But one exception is the small - cap Russell 2000 Index, which has already rallied all the way back to
its prior highs AND set a fresh all - time closing high last Friday.
While this week's price action was certainly a step in the right direction (so far), both the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 are now in «no man's land» because the indexes are back above resistance of their 20 and 50 - day averages, yet still must contend with resistance of
their prior highs and short - term downtrend lines that have formed.
The iShares MSCI Singapore Index Fund ($ EWS) has been exhibiting tight, sideways price action over the past six weeks, near
its prior highs and just above the $ 13.50 -LSB-...]
The «cup» was formed after the low of the pullback that tested the downtrend line on the weekly chart above, and the «handle» has been forming the right side of the chart pattern just below
the prior highs from September of 2012:
In other words, when taking inflation into account (and relative to
its prior highs and lows), the current silver price is historically undervalued.
First, the price action absolutely must stop making «lower highs» and «lower lows,» and eventually break the downtrend line of the pullback from
the prior highs.
Long - term investors should already be adding to their positions on the short - term dips, but a spike below
the prior high could reach down to the $ 2800 support.
Dash completed a roundtrip between $ 300 and
the prior high near $ 220 since last week, and the coin remains among the strongest majors.
Since stocks and ETFs trading at new 52 - week highs have no overhead supply and price resistance of
prior highs to hold them down, our most profitable swing trades are frequently in stocks and ETFs trading at 52 - week highs (like this $ CBM trade we closed on August 15 for an 11 % gain on a 4 - day hold).
In the near - term, we anticipate this bullish price consolidation should spark a breakout that leads to a test of
the prior highs from 2011.
The iShares MSCI Singapore Index Fund ($ EWS) has been exhibiting tight, sideways price action over the past six weeks, near
its prior highs and just above the $ 13.50 level.
Specifically, we highlighted how key intermediate - term support of the 50 - day moving average, dominant uptrend line, and horizontal price support from
the prior highs were all merging together.
The prior highs at $ 200 could be tested in the coming days, and a break - out to new highs is likely, with target levels at $ 217 and just above the $ 250 level.
The relative strength line does not confirm the price, as it stops well shy of
the prior high.
Point A — $ NEWR has rallied almost 100 % off the lows and is close to
the prior high of $ 40 (~ $ 38.70).
The coin is now on a new buy signal above the $ 16 level, and a move towards
the prior high at $ 23 is now likely in the coming period.
Dash held up well during the crash, but it still got close to the $ 220 level and
the prior highs, after dipping below the $ 265 support.
Dash continues to act strong and the coin spiked higher today in early trading but failed to stay above
its prior highs.
As the long - term picture just reached neutral stance after the one - month long correction, at least a test of
the prior high is very likely, with the currency still following our projection from June.
Furthermore, the current base of consolidation is holding above
the prior highs of 2011.
The slow global growth, and the weak demand are also long - term challenges for the commodity and we don't expect a major move above
the prior highs at $ 54.
Ethereum Classic broke through
its prior high at $ 23 as we expected, but the coin is likely near the end of the current cycle, given the lofty gains of the last few weeks, and the overbought long - term picture.
The 10 - week moving average (blue line) is well above the 40 - week moving average (orange line), which is now above resistance of
the prior highs from January through March of this year.
We would have preferred the price action stall for a week or two to form a handle (short pause) before breaking above
the prior high.
The tech benchmark recovered after last week's brief volatility surge and as quiet summer trading resumed the index looks back on track to test
the prior highs.
Both the short - and long - term picture is encouraging, and
the prior highs are close, with our long - term target still found just above $ 250.
However, notice the horizontal price resistance just overhead, which was formed by the prior swing lows from late October, as well as
the prior highs from July.