However
only valuation analysis has been proven to work in the long run.
Not exact matches
Of course, there is no guarantee that Canadian stocks won't cheapen further from here, and admittedly we
only have a handful of
valuation cycles to use in our
analysis.
Our
analysis of
valuation considers not
only earnings, but free cash flows, dividends, book values, revenues, profit margins, interest rates, inflation, risk premiums and other factors.
I generally
only buy into companies that are selling at a substantial discount, or margin of safety, to my estimate of value for the company so that this way if I do make a mistake in the
analysis or
valuations then I will still have a chance to make some money.
Because, it is claimed, evaluation presupposes
valuation as a condition of its possibility, any merely «disinterested» or «value - free» understanding of human reflection is of necessity excluded.20 Any consideration of the evidence of experience could
only in the nature of the case ever illustrate, but logically could not falsify what must always necessarily be the case, even if such a consideration could well force a limited reconstrual of the hermeneutical
analysis always itself presupposed in the strictly conceptual presuppositional
analysis which uncovers the necessity of such elemental valuing.21
John Hussman at Hussman funds is careful to qualify the value of this
analysis: «Rich
valuation is strongly associated with weak subsequent returns, but
only reliably so over periods of 7 - 10 years.
In reality, a
valuation's
only one (albeit, an essential) component of the
analysis you perform before buying a stock.
Yeah, in the end, (almost any)
valuation is
only ever a problem when it's actually an average / bad business... That's why I love the Unilever & similar look - backs /
analyses: http://www.lindselltrain.com/~/media/Files/L/Lindsell-Train-V2/investment-insights/2017/Confounding%20Compounding%20-%20February%202017.pdf It really is amazing you could pay up so much for what is generally perceived as a slightly dull company / stock & still make a great return.
However, I must caveat the above statement as I believe it to
only be true after you have mastered
valuation and cash flow
analysis and met several people that can assist you with various parts of your business.