How this model works: As with my analyses of
opinion poll figures in Ireland, constituency support estimates for different parties and groupings form the basis of the general approach taken with this analysis.
What do the latest
opinion poll figures suggest in relation to the likely number of seats that each party will win in that contest?
It is notoriously difficult to convert
opinion poll figures for the share of the votes into the number of seats likely to be won at a General Election.
Not exact matches
Instead of the usual economic forecasts, look at sales
figures at key retailers and public -
opinion polls.
Well let's NOT Google «Arsenal fan
polls» as
opinions change over time, so let us have a reflection of what us Gooners think right now, without any games to distract us, and see if we can get a FACTUAL
figure on the actual percentage of JustArsenal readers who agree or disagree with Jon.
It is well known that the headline
figures from
opinion polls in Scotland have been bad for Labour.
For a variety of reasons (including the impact of high levels of undecided voters in a specific
poll), the actual result of an election contest may vary from the
figures suggested by an
opinion poll, even if the
poll is carried out relatively close to election day, or on election day itself as in the case of exit
polls, but the likelihood of such variation is not something that can be factored into this model.
This of course is a very rough model and it can not take appropriate account of the fact that changing support levels between elections tend to vary geographically, while it also fails to take account of the local particularities of the different regions in cases where no regional
figures are produced in association with different national
opinion polls meaning that there is no scope to carry out separate regional analyses based on these
poll figures.
This seems to be on the back of
opinion polls which may not have changed if you allow for their inbuilt margin of error and which certainly ignore the fact that Northern marginal seats are running ahead of the national
figures.
These
figures would also offer grim tidings for Fine Gael, a party that would be at a similar level of decline, as Labour, relative to the 2011 General Election
figures based on this
opinion poll.
This seeks to ask the following question in relation to different
opinion poll results — what do these
poll figures mean in terms of the likely number of Dail seats that could be won by the different parties and groupings on those national support levels?
The headline
figures from the latest
opinion polls may be fascinating but they are a poor guide to the likely outcome of the election.
Lord Kalms, a former party Treasurer and the founder of the Dixons retail empire, has given voice to the discontent felt by many disgruntled backbench MPs and influential Tory
figures who have privately called on David Cameron to dismiss his close ally following a sharp fall in the party's
opinion poll ratings.
Still, for those getting rather bored with the voting intention
figures, we can look ahead to several potentially significant events — many commentators have suggested Gordon Brown is putting great weight in the G20 summit this week to give his premiership a boost, beyond that is the budget, which could work either way, and past that we have the local and european elections, which often lead to realignments in the national
opinion polls.
Regardless of the growth
figures for the second quarter, Labour supporters will be growing concerned by the inability of their leader to make progress in
opinion polls.
The full
figures were CON 37 %, LAB 37 %, LDEM 19 % (as ever bear in mind that
polls don't predict, they only measure
opinion at the moment, so this is a purely hypothetical question).
Much of the money, according to David Hencke who unearthed the
figures, was spent on
polling in marginal seats - undertaken by
Opinion Leader Research.
A Pew Center
poll (
Figure 7) is representative of public
opinion and places «dealing with global warming» very low (19 out of 20) on their list of concerns.