Not exact matches
The Arctic took another 3,000 - 4,000 years to
warm this much, primarily because of the fact that the Northern Hemisphere had huge ice sheets to buffer
warming, and the fact that
changes in ocean currents and Earth's
orbital configuration accelerated
warming in the south.
Scientists knew about the
warming effects of greenhouse gases, but proponents of global cooling argued that greenhouse
warming would be more than offset by Earth's
orbital changes.
This may help explain some of the
changes that are not explained by the
orbital curves in the other thread, especially the initiation of
warming and cooling since the GCR effects can be much more powerful (partly forcing as postulated in the paper, but also amplification of the weaker
orbital forcing).
Periods of volcanism can cool the climate (as with the 1991 Pinatubo eruption), methane emissions from increased biological activity can
warm the climate, and slight
changes in solar output and
orbital variations can all have climate effects which are much shorter in duration than the ice age cycles, ranging from less than a decade to a thousand years in duration (the Younger Dryas).
While natural global
warming during the ice ages was initiated by increased solar radiation caused by cyclic changes to Earth's orbital parameters, there is no evident mechanism for correcting Anthropogenic Global Warming over the next several cen
warming during the ice ages was initiated by increased solar radiation caused by cyclic
changes to Earth's
orbital parameters, there is no evident mechanism for correcting Anthropogenic Global
Warming over the next several cen
Warming over the next several centuries.
Predicted
changes in
orbital forcing suggest that the next glacial period would begin at least 50,000 years from now, even in absence of human - made global
warming (see Milankovitch cycles).
The theory suggests that the system is pushed by greenhouse gas
changes and
warming — as well as solar intensity and Earth
orbital eccentricities - past a threshold at which stage the components start to interact chaotically in multiple and
changing negative and positive feedbacks — as tremendous energies cascade through powerful subsystems.
I don't think there was much prior uncertainty in the literature over the general notion that
orbital forcing
changes were an initiating factor and that consequent rises in CO2 contributed a major subsequent
warming influence, but the timing (regional vs global) and the interaction between the hemispheres has not been well illuminated.
> More sunshine from
orbital changes produces
warming.
As temperatures
warmed slightly due to insolation
changes caused by
orbital cycles, ice sheets retreated slightly.
Just a quick note to say that the paleoclimate data for earlier
warm periods 125,000 years ago and even 8 - 10,000 years ago in northern Alaska (paleoclimate
warmer than now, [from] different forcings) document the northward advance of the treeline from Nome to Barrow, Alaska, and the Canadian border at different times of
change in Earth's
orbital parameters (without a significant
change in CO2).
And if the
orbital change produces a
warming less CO2 dissolves in the ocean and enhances the
warming.
As these particular events took place at the end of a local
warm period caused by
orbital forcing (see Box 6.1 and Section 6.5.1), these observations suggest that under gradual climate forcings (e.g.,
orbital) the climate system can
change abruptly.
For the mid-Holocene, coupled climate models are able to simulate mid-latitude
warming and enhanced monsoons, with little
change in global mean temperature (< 0.4 °C), consistent with our understanding of
orbital forcing.
This
change in sea level occurred in the context of different
orbital forcing and with high latitude surface temperature, averaged over several thousand years, at least 2 °C
warmer than present.
So even though past
warm episodes may have been initiated by
orbital changes that caused
warming and thus caused CO2 to rise, which then led to more
warming, we know that the current
warm episode is being driven by increasing CO2 due to the burning of fossil fuels and the clearing of forests.
The
orbital changes that caused the ice ages are far too weak and slow to cause a
warming as rapid as the current one.
CO2 acts there as a feedback, with
warmer / colder oceans holding less / more CO2, and
changing CO2 concentrations along with (lagging) temperature
changes induced by (forced by) insolation
changes due to
orbital mechanics.
As the Earth came out of the ice age the primary forcing which caused the initial
warming was due to
changes in the Earth's
orbital pattern.
The main reason for this
warmer climate was an increased amount of energy from the Sun being received at high northern latitudes due to Earth's
orbital configuration, plus Earth had an increased capacity to absorb heat due to vegetation
changes and reduced ice and snow cover.
The theory suggests that the system is pushed by greenhouse gas
changes and
warming — as well as solar intensity and Earth
orbital dynamics — past a threshold at which stage the components start to interact chaotically in multiple and
changing negative and positive feedbacks — as tremendous energies cascade through powerful subsystems.
The theory suggests that the system is pushed by greenhouse gas
changes and
warming — as well as solar intensity and Earth
orbital eccentricities — past a threshold at which stage the components start to interact chaotically in multiple and
changing negative and positive feedbacks — as tremendous energies cascade through powerful subsystems.
The essential condition may be
orbital cycles and slow
changes in insolation in high latitudes — but the glacial trigger is likely to be warmth itself freshening and
warming the Arctic ocean.
The
change in water vapour content will reinforce the
warming from
orbital change until cloud increases and sets in the negative feedback.
The INITIAL cause of the
warming was a
change in
orbital parameters.
You describe
changes in the Earth's albedo at various places which no doubt will increase the
warming from the initial solar or
orbital event.
When
orbital wiggles and rising greenhouse gases
warmed the earth from the last ice age, proxy records show that smooth
changes were interspersed with abrupt coolings and
warmings, wettings and dryings.
Have a look at this updated version of one of the articles here about past temperatures, it has good graphics and more detail about determining the past, plus links to good sources: http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2006/10/26/20495/240 The
warming that ended the ice age was caused by
changes in the earth's
orbital inclination (Milankovich cycles).
Posted in Musings, Science Lessons, tagged astronomy, climate
change, education, fantasy, game of thrones, george r r martin, glaciers, global
warming, hbo, ice age,
orbital mechanics, science, song of ice and fire on June 2, 2014 8 Comments»
Even if
warming episodes were initiated by
orbital changes, the
warming itself would cause the release of greenhouse gases from sources including the oceans and melting permafrost.
This may help explain some of the
changes that are not explained by the
orbital curves in the other thread, especially the initiation of
warming and cooling since the GCR effects can be much more powerful (partly forcing as postulated in the paper, but also amplification of the weaker
orbital forcing).