The black line represents five - year mean observed Arctic temperature anomalies, the coloured lines represent the simulated responses to all forcings (red), greenhouse gases alone (green),
other anthropogenic forcings alone (mostly aerosols, orange) and natural forcings (blue).
Not exact matches
Multi-signal detection and attribution analyses, which quantify the contributions of different natural and
anthropogenic forcings to observed changes, show that greenhouse gas
forcing alone during the past half century would likely have resulted in greater than the observed warming if there had not been an offsetting cooling effect from aerosol and
other forcings.
In addition, since IPCC tells us that the total net
anthropogenic radiative
forcing is essentially equal to the radiative
forcing from CO2
alone, we can essentially ignore
other anthropogenic forcing factors (positive and negative).
(The total
anthropogenic forcing includes
other GHGs and aerosols; the net effect happens to be (with significant error bars) similar to that from CO2
alone.)