Greenhouse gases contributed a global mean surface warming likely to be between 0.5 °C and 1.3 °C over the period 1951 — 2010, with the contributions from
other anthropogenic forcings likely to be between — 0.6 °C and 0.1 °C, from natural forcings likely to be between — 0.1 °C and 0.1 °C, and from internal variability likely to be between — 0.1 °C and 0.1 °C.
Not exact matches
It is extremely
likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the
anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and
other anthropogenic forcings together.
AR5: It is extremely
likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the
anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and
other anthropogenic forcings together.
Some of them are optimal fingerprint detection studies (estimating the magnitude of fingerprints for different external
forcing factors in observations, and determining how
likely such patterns could have occurred in observations by chance, and how
likely they could be confused with climate response to
other influences, using a statistically optimal metric), some of them use simpler methods, such as comparisons between data and climate model simulations with and without greenhouse gas increases /
anthropogenic forcing, and some are even based only on observations.
Multi-signal detection and attribution analyses, which quantify the contributions of different natural and
anthropogenic forcings to observed changes, show that greenhouse gas
forcing alone during the past half century would
likely have resulted in greater than the observed warming if there had not been an offsetting cooling effect from aerosol and
other forcings.
In 2013, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report stated a clear expert consensus that: «It is extremely
likely [defined as 95 - 100 % certainty] that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the
anthropogenic [human - caused] increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and
other anthropogenic forcings together.»
• Greenhouse gases contributed a global mean surface warming
likely to be in the range of 0.5 °C to 1.3 °C over the period 1951 to 2010, with the contributions from
other anthropogenic forcings, including the cooling effect of aerosols,
likely to be in the range of − 0.6 °C to 0.1 °C.
Greenhouse gases contributed a global mean surface warming
likely to be in the range of 0.5 °C to 1.3 °C over the period 1951 − 2010, with the contributions from
other anthropogenic forcings, including the cooling effect of aerosols,
likely to be in the range of − 0.6 °C to 0.1 °C.
This backs up the IPCC attribution statement «It is extremely
likely [95 percent confidence] more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the
anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and
other anthropogenic forcings together.»
Again IPCC attribution statement: «It is extremely
likely [95 percent confidence] more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the
anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and
other anthropogenic forcings together.»
«It is extremely
likely -LCB- 95 % + certainty -RCB- that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the
anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and
other anthropogenic forcings together.»
It is extremely
likely [95 percent confidence] all of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the
anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and
other anthropogenic forcings together.
It also follows using the same semantics that: «It is more
likely than not that more than the entire observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the
anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and
other anthropogenic forcings together.»
The phrase «It is extremely
likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the
anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and
other anthropogenic forcings together.»
Over at RealClimate, on this topic they claim» It is extremely
likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the
anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and
other anthropogenic forcings together.
So when IPCC tells me that all
anthropogenic forcing components
other than CO2 (aerosols, albedo, land use,
other GHGs, etc.) essentially cancel one another out, I have to accept this as
likely to be correct.
The IPCC says (in the AR5 SPM), «It is extremely
likely [defined as 95 - 100 % certainty] that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the
anthropogenic [human - caused] increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and
other anthropogenic forcings together.»
A possible prolonged lull in solar irradiance, if it transpires, would
likely partially ameliorate any anticipated warming from
anthropogenic greenhouse gases or
other forcings.
«Given our understanding of both the climate system as embodied in the current range of models, and the known
forcings both natural and
anthropogenic, it is very
likely that not more than half of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is due to causes
other than the observed increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.»