For the July report, we received 14 June SIO submissions from dynamical models: 5 from ice - ocean models forced by atmospheric reanalysis or
other atmospheric model output (in green in Figure 3) and 9 from fully coupled general circulation models (in blue in Figure 3).
This year we received 14 June SIO submissions from dynamical models, of which 3 were from ice - ocean models forced by atmospheric reanalysis or
other atmospheric model output and 12 were from fully - coupled general circulation models.
Not exact matches
The
model also considered how reducing soot could impact
other atmospheric emissions, including sulfur dioxide, nitrous oxide and organic carbon.
But even the first step of
modeling the effects of greenhouse gas sources and sinks on future temperatures requires input from
atmospheric scientists, oceanographers, ecologists, economists, policy analysts, and
others.
Goddard's computer
models, with input from ocean buoys,
atmospheric models, satellite data and
other sources, can also simulate what ocean water temperatures could do in the coming months.
Forecasting
models are based on physical laws governing
atmospheric motion, chemical reactions and
other relationships.
Satellite images and
atmospheric models such as these have helped Jaffe demonstrate how mercury and
other emissions from China feed into a complex network of air currents that distribute pollutants across the globe.
EWeLiNE combines these data with
other atmospheric observations — from ground - based weather stations, radar and satellites — and sophisticated computer
models predict power generation over the next 48 hours or so.
Even
models that correctly capture cloud behavior may fail to fully account for
other climate feedbacks from factors like changing snow and sea ice cover,
atmospheric water vapor content, and temperature.
Bringing together observed and simulated measurements on ocean temperatures,
atmospheric pressure, water soil and wildfire occurrences, the researchers have a powerful tool in their hands, which they are willing to test in
other regions of the world: «Using the same climate
model configuration, we will also study the soil water and fire risk predictability in
other parts of our world, such as the Mediterranean, Australia or parts of Asia,» concludes Timmermann.
Other studies which have assessed the importance of the Montreal Protocol have used
models to predict
atmospheric winds and temperatures and have looked a few decades into the future.
There are many
other atmospheric observations and
models we need to look at to see how this entire process works.»
Your statement that «Thus it is natural to look at the real world and see whether there is evidence that it behaves in the same way (and it appears to, since
model hindcasts of past changes match observations very well)» seems to indicate that you think there will be no changes in ocean circulation or land use trends, nor any subsequent changes in cloud responses thereto or
other atmospheric circulation.
Model simulations of 20th century global warming typically use actual observed amounts of
atmospheric carbon dioxide, together with
other human (for example chloroflorocarbons or CFCs) and natural (solar brightness variations, volcanic eruptions,...) climate - forcing factors.
All the
models I've seen rely on the assumption that an increase in
atmospheric greenhouse gases will necessarily increase the long - term average temperature of the globe and that all the
other mechanisms that cause or counteract warming are understood and
modeled fairly accurately.
They looked at precipitation and
atmospheric circulation among
other factors before determining that the
model was accurately portraying regional climate and informing global climate calculations.
To derive the climate projections for this assessment, we employed 20 general circulation
models to consider two scenarios of global carbon emissions: one where
atmospheric greenhouse gases are stabilized by the end of the century and the
other where it grows on its current path (the stabilization [RCP4.5] and business - as - usual [RCP8.5] emission scenarios, respectively).
From an instantaneous doubling of
atmospheric CO2 content from the pre-industrial base level, some
models would project 2 °C (3.6 °F) of global warming in less than a decade while
others would project that it would take more than a century to achieve that much warming.
This method tries to maximize using pure observations to find the temperature change and the forcing (you might need a
model to constrain some of the forcings, but there's a lot of uncertainty about how the surface and
atmospheric albedo changed during glacial times... a lot of studies only look at dust and not
other aerosols, there is a lot of uncertainty about vegetation change, etc).
Since then, anthropogenic influence has also been identified in a range of
other climate variables, such as ocean heat content,
atmospheric pressure and sea ice extent, thereby contributing further evidence of an anthropogenic influence on climate, and improving confidence in climate
models.
All the
models I've seen rely on the assumption that an increase in
atmospheric greenhouse gases will necessarily increase the long - term average temperature of the globe and that all the
other mechanisms that cause or counteract warming are understood and
modeled fairly accurately.
Other successful projections include
modeling the
atmospheric response to the Pinatubo eruption.
Other examples in a simple
atmospheric model might be the distribution of ozone or the level of carbon dioxide.
NASA's Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) combines mechanistic «forward»
models and empirical «inverse»
models of
atmospheric CO2 and
other variables using a technique called «data assimilation» that is closely analogous to operational weather forecasting (Bowman et al, 2017).
The lag between decreases in sea ice extent during late summer and changes in the mid-latitude
atmospheric circulation during
other seasons (like autumn and winter, when the recent loss of sea ice is much smaller) have been demonstrated empirically, but have not been captured by existing dynamical
models.
The (apparent) slower rate of projected
model warming for a higher absolute temperature may be related to
other factors like cloud amount and geographical distribution at higher absolute humidity, or increases in convective transport (due to more
atmospheric instability) at higher absolute humidity.
[Response: At the dawn of coupled
modelling, errors that arose in separate developments of ocean and
atmospheric models lead to significant inconsistencies between the fluxes that each component needed from the
other, and the ones they were getting.
Given that the
other important variables (sea surface temps, depth of the warm layer, and
atmospheric moisture) are all predicted to increase, it seems hard to make the claim that tropical cyclones will be unchanged, just as it seemed unwise to claim that Lyman et al's «Recent cooling of the upper oceans» meant that climate
models had fatal flaws.
Your statement that «Thus it is natural to look at the real world and see whether there is evidence that it behaves in the same way (and it appears to, since
model hindcasts of past changes match observations very well)» seems to indicate that you think there will be no changes in ocean circulation or land use trends, nor any subsequent changes in cloud responses thereto or
other atmospheric circulation.
In
other words, the fundamental reason scientists think
atmospheric CO2 strongly affects the global temperature is not climate
model output — it's just * basic radiative physics *!
Several
other groups have evaluated the impact of coupling specific
models of carbon to climate
models but clear results are difficult to obtain because of inevitable biases in both the terrestrial and
atmospheric modules (e.g., Delire et al., 2003).
The basic ingredients are easy to list: — absorption / emission properties (or spectroscopic parameters) of CO2 at
atmospheric pressures, i.e. data presently available from HITRAN - database combined with
models of line broadening — observed properties of the atmosphere where most important features include clouds and moisture content, but many
other factors have some influence — computer
model of the transmission of radiation along the lines of MODTRAN or GENLN2
In another study, a multi-year time series of surface radiative fluxes and
other atmospheric properties measured by a DOE climate program are being used at AER to evaluate radiative fluxes and to validate forecasts of surface temperature and
other properties in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional
model.
Depending on what they are used for,
models can also include interactive
atmospheric chemistry, ocean biology, and
other processes.
In their
model, the researchers were able to tease out the impacts of one factor at a time, which allowed them to investigate and quantify the monsoon response to the doubling of
atmospheric carbon dioxide, increased temperatures and
other individual changes.
... current climate
modeling is essentially to answer one question: how will increased
atmospheric concentrations of CO2 (generated from human activity) change earth's temperature and
other climatological statistics?
available peer - reviewed, science - based evidence to
model the implications of their proposals for
atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, global mean surface temperature, sea level rise, and
other climate change impacts at the global scale.
An international team of researchers report in Nature Communications that they made a computer
model of the planet's
atmospheric conditions: they included natural and human - triggered aerosols, volatile organic compounds, greenhouse gases and
other factors that influence temperature, one of which is albedo: the scientist's word for the capacity of terrain to absorb or reflect solar radiation.
We will interpret recently completed measurements of 35 chemical - proxies in the ice - core and relate these to similar studies in
other Arctic ice cores, such as by using real - world contaminant transport to validate
atmospheric circulation
models and chemical - signature sourcing.
There are two separate issues: the correct radiative transfer
model, then the correct ambient
atmospheric conditions (H20 and
other trace gases, temperature profiles, cloud properties, etc.).
Emissions of
other short - lived gases (CO, NOx, NMVOCs, and CH4) also needed to be mapped to a global grid for use in
atmospheric chemistry
models.
The fact that Wahl and Ammann (2006) admit that the results of the MBH methodology does not coincide with the results of
other methods such as borehole methods and
atmospheric - ocean general circulation
models and that Wahl and Ammann adjust the MBH methodology to include the PC4 bristlecone / foxtail pine effects are significant reasons we believe that the Wahl and Amman paper does not convincingly demonstrate the validity of the MBH methodology.
For new technologies the ETA team often starts with a life - cycle energy, water, or materials analysis to understand the technology's impacts when scaled up, and then uses
other models as needed, such as an
atmospheric chemistry
model or energy system
model.
Other evidence [which I will present in future articles] seems to indicate that these same climate
models are NOT realistically simulating such factors as
atmospheric water vapour, clouds, solar energy fluctuations and cosmic ray effects, Earth's changing geomagnetic field, and Earth's interior heat with consequent surface heat variations.
Program areas at GISS may be roughly divided into the categories of climate forcings; climate
model development; Earth observations;
atmospheric radiation;
atmospheric chemistry; climate impacts; planetary atmospheres, exoplanets, and astrobiology; paleoclimate; and
other disciplines.
In addition to treating cloud transmission based only on the measurements at the local time of the TOMS observations, the results from
other satellites and weather assimilation
models can be used to estimate
atmospheric UV irradiance transmission throughout the day.
To produce a weather forecast we need to
model the dynamics of the atmosphere and the physical processes that occur, such as the formation of clouds, and the
other processes in the Earth system that influence the weather such as
atmospheric composition, the marine environment and land processes.
Wang, 5.0 (± 0.27),
Modeling A projected September Arctic sea ice extent of 5.0 million km2 is based on a NCEP ensemble mean CFSv2 forecast initialized from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) that assimilates observed sea ice concentrations and
other atmospheric and oceanic observations.
Radiative transfer codes that accurately calculate the radiative impact of greenhouse gases and
other atmospheric constituents are an essential component of the global climate
models used to simulate present and future climate.
The fourth question «How robust are the
models used by the Met Office for weather forecasting, climate predictions,
atmospheric dispersion and
other activities?»