On the attribution question, the results of Gillett et al. are consistent with the many
other attribution studies we've looked at (i.e. Lean and Rind 2008, Huber and Knutti 2011, and Foster and Rahmstorf 2011)- namely that humans have been the dominant cause of the global warming over the past 25 - 150 years (Figure 1).
Not exact matches
The new research differs from
other so - called extreme event
attribution studies, not just in its broad - brush approach, but also in how the term «extreme» is defined.
However there's also
attribution to the way people
study, as some are better than
others at traditional methods of
study to achieve more.
The
other point is that
attribution studies evaluate the extent to which patterns of model response to external forcing (i.e., fingerprints) simulations explain climate change in * observations.
The UN is slowly moving toward using
attribution studies to define liability and compensation by the US and
other developed countries.
I think it is true that
attribution studies must use appropriate climate models but that does not to my mind imply AOGCMs to the exclusion of all
others.
The result still remains counter-intuitive, and most
other similar
attribution studies (like those referenced above) generally estimate between 0.65 and 0.85 °C warming over the past 100 - 150 years.
Attribution is difficult, there are many factors
other than AGW in play, ENSO and
other large scale oscillations, however some
studies do find that greenhouse warming was at least partially behind the drought.
For instance, US politicians frequently assert that it is an open question whether humans are causing the undeniable warming that the Earth is experiencing, thus exposing ignorance of dozens of lines of independent robust evidence of human causation including
attribution studies, finger print analyses, strong evidence that correlates fossil fuel use to rising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, and
other physical and chemical evidence.
Climate change detection and
attribution studies rely on historical simulations using specified combinations of forcings to quantify the contributions from greenhouse gases and
other forcings to observed climate change.
This would be helped by
other studies building on their «ingenious approach,» says Prof Peter Stott, head of the climate monitoring and
attribution at the Met Office Hadley Centre and professor of detection and
attribution at the University of Exeter, who also wasn't involved in the
study.
The
study, just published in Nature Geoscience, is the latest in the relatively new field of
attribution, where scientists identify the fingerprints of human influence on observed changes in temperature, rainfall, and
other climate parameters.
Those
attribution studies, such as Foster & Rahmstorf 2011 and
others have aptly noted this, and, though they might not admit it, McKitrick & Tole 2012 are saying something similar... include the change in the amount of coal burned along with some of the GCM's and you can be much better at having a better model of the surface climate trends.
But in fact the methodology that he's used to link the observed warming to increasing greenhouse gases, the so - called
attribution step, is not nearly as robust as many
other studies have undertaken over the last 10 years.
We are also collaborating with
other research groups who are interested in using our simulations to perform similar
attribution studies, for snowmelt in western North America, and heatwaves in South Africa and India.
Attribution studies additionally assess whether the response to a key forcing, such as greenhouse gas increases, is distinguishable from that due to
other forcings (Appendix 9.
Geographic Information System Analyst — Duties & Responsibilities Serve as geographic system analyst responsible for major nationwide mapping and assessment projects Recruit, train, and direct junior team members ensuring they understand the brand and corporate protocols Set and strictly adhere to departmental and project budgets and schedules Maintain comprehensive records detailing project schedules, geographic information, and
other pertinent data Consistently meet and exceed company goals through strong managerial skills Complete all phases of cartographic mapping and database management on 25 Digital Flood Oversee Insurance Rate Map countywide
studies in association with FEMA's map modernization process Enhance PBS&J's Floodmap Desktop version 9.3 with an automated cross-section annotation process Create FMD tools and a nationwide automated public land survey system
attribution tool Assist in 2006 Post-Hurricane Katrina flood assessment with the Army Corps of Engineers in New Orleans Create final project maps portraying environmental impact assessment calculations associated with the Saratoga, Wyoming well field and transmission line environmental assessment Design final project maps for a hydrologic assessment of County Road 204 in Garfield County, Colorado Provide GIS / data analysis services on a sign asset management project for the Colorado Department of Transportation Build and strengthen relationships with key clients, partner agencies, and community leaders Represent company brand with poise, integrity, and positivity
I was also impressed by how the
study's authors and
other experts quoted in the mainstream media refused to make any causal
attributions.