Turbulent water, like thunderstorms and
other chaotic systems, is extremely sensitive to minor disturbances.
Not exact matches
Among
other expected insights, a more detailed study of the
chaotic Pluto - Charon
system could reveal how planets orbiting a distant binary star might behave.
The
system is
chaotic and apparently unstable, and simulations show that the moons may perturb each
other into crossing orbits which may result in collisions between the moons.
Most theorists hold that such ejections should be quite common during the
chaotic tumult of a planetary
system's early days, when closely - packed worlds whirling around a star can scatter off each
other like billiard balls in a break shot.
By doggedly ploughing his own furrow, Hartung in a sense refused to choose between two simplistic visions of abstract art: on one side, eruptive and
chaotic painting, based on pure intuition, combined with the expressionist, gestural, lyrical, informal and Tachiste tendencies of post-war painting; and, on the
other, control, precision and
systems, whose notions belong more to the realm of Geometric Abstraction.
Then let us not forget that although entropy (heat loss) escapes the earth
system, some is trapped in increasing random motions which influences both, short interval and
chaotic weather, and longer term climate and as well as
other biological factors, like evolution and carrying capacity.
1965 At a Boulder, Colo., meeting on the causes of climate change, Lorenz and
others point out the
chaotic nature of the climate
system and the possiblity of sudden shifts.
Linear feed - back
systems are already completely capable of
chaotic behaviour, no non-linearity required; see coupled pendulums; and the SB Law feedback (grey body IR emission) is on the
other hand highly non-linear all on its own...
These and
other variabilities are best seen as
chaotic shifts in a complex and dynamic
system.
Despite the
chaotic and stochastic (as I've already said in the
other thread, and I agree with you those two things aren't necessarily interlinked) components of the
system are clearly predictable as a result of various forcings (at least short term).
So it seems to me that the simple way of communicating a complex problem has led to several fallacies becoming fixed in the discussions of the real problem; (1) the Earth is a black body, (2) with no materials either surrounding the
systems or in the
systems, (3) in radiative energy transport equilibrium, (4) response is
chaotic solely based on extremely rough appeal to temporal - based
chaotic response, (5) but at the same time exhibits trends, (6) but at the same time averages of
chaotic response are not
chaotic, (7) the mathematical model is a boundary value problem yet it is solved in the time domain, (8) absolutely all that matters is the incoming radiative energy at the TOA and the outgoing radiative energy at the Earth's surface, (9) all the physical phenomena and processes that are occurring between the TOA and the surface along with all the materials within the subsystems can be ignored, (10) including all
other activities of human kind save for our contributions of CO2 to the atmosphere, (11) neglecting to mention that if these were true there would be no problem yet we continue to expend time and money working on the problem.
A disconcerting feature of much commentary here and in
other blogs is the relentless refrain claiming that the «climate
system is
chaotic.»
Anybody not understanding those facts either do not understand the profound and mostly unknown complexities of the
chaotic system or are paid to look the
other way.
Even our best climate scientists still have only a limited grasp of Earth's highly complex and
chaotic climate
systems, and the many interrelated solar, cosmic, oceanic, atmospheric, terrestrial and
other forces that control climate and weather.
A leading theory, presented by Dr. Bill McGuire, Hugh Tuffin, J. Maclennan, Peter Huybers and many
others is that changes in stress to the Earth's crust caused by the loss of billions of tons of mass by ice sheets and the displacement of those billions of tons into the world's ocean
system spurred previously stable magma
systems into a
chaotic displacement.
I don't particuarly understand your point — that they use «slowing down» and «noisy bifurcation» rather than some unspecified
other property of
chaotic systems?
I do not «believe» in cycles or
other such efforts to make sense of a
chaotic system.
The IPCC and many
other scientists say that climate is a coupled non-linear
chaotic system.
The
other problems are that there is no way to model
chaotic shifts in the Earth
system and that actual emissions are overwhelmingly likely to diverge from IPCC emission scenarios.
There is simply nothing
other than the earth's random
chaotic hydrodynamic
system to do it.
The innovation of the scientific method, that acknowledges the
chaotic (i.e. incompletely or insufficient characterized and unwieldy) nature of the
system, was to establish a firm separation of science and
other logical domains: philosophy, faith, and fantasy.
AMO / PDO on the
other hand are
system states that last 20 - 40 years, and there's very good reasons to think that they are the cause of the entire modern warming, these should be modeled by GCM's, but they don't do this either, and they have a far bigger effect on «climate» while the smaller scale
chaotic artifacts have no effect on «climate».
CO2 rise is an external forcing in a spatiotemporal
chaotic system, a perturbation of attractors, a stick bludgeoning a hornet nest that we do not understand,
other than to understand we are dependent on the nest and the hornets in myriad and diverse ways.
1965 Boulder, Colorado meeting on causes of climate change: Lorenz and
others point out the
chaotic nature of climate
system and the possibility of sudden shifts.
What you caution is valid as a caution but it is incorrect to go to the
other extreme and say that any order or pattern in a
chaotic system is illusionary.
«The problem here and in
other jurisdictions is criminal justice resourcing and reforms [are] piecemeal at best, but I would say
chaotic describes how governments have funded and implemented reforms to the criminal justice
system to make it more efficient and effective, and it seems to be one of the poor boys on the budget priority list in most provinces,» he says.