Those numbers caused a stir, because they were substantially higher than HFC warming forecasts made
by other climate models, including those underpinning the massive reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
snip ---- «Indeed, satellite and weather balloon measurements have found little or no warming over the past 25 years, and
other climate models project only modest warming»
A more subjective way to assess the degree of model realism is to accept as tolerable the magnitude of errors typical
for other climate models.
If the «real world run» contains some significant «contamination» that no other run contains (or that only a limited number of runs contain), then until he finds that run we can have no confidence that
other climate model runs tell us anything about an important aspect of reality.
What prevents that is the lack of thorough calculations of the net and individual forcings in
the other climate models.
Pascale stressed the limits of this or
any other climate model.
The conference will showcase the advancements and outcomes from these and
other climate modelling and climate service activities.
This is more than the increase found using
the other climate models mentioned above, because now we have also taken into account the influence of El Niño.
You can see that from the sea level rise projections and you can see that from of
the other climate modelling assessments.
In short, even if you don't think warming in the surface temperature record is exaggerated, there still has not been anywhere near the amount of warming one would expect for the types of higher sensitivities in the IPCC and
other climate models.
The climate models run on this supercomputer will «magically» produce 3.25 C of warming by 2100, verifying the results of
all other climate model simulations run before.