Forest 2006, along with several
other climate sensitivity studies, used simulations by the MIT 2D model of zonal surface and upper - air temperatures and global deep - ocean temperature, the upper - air data being least influential.
Not exact matches
Several
studies have put the lower bound of
climate sensitivity at about 1.5 °C, on the
other hand, several
others have found that a
sensitivity higher than 4.5 °C can't be ruled out.
It is important to regard the LGM
studies as just one set of points in the cloud yielded by
other climate sensitivity estimates, but the LGM has been a frequent target because it was a period for which there is a lot of data from varied sources,
climate was significantly different from today, and we have considerable information about the important drivers — like CO2, CH4, ice sheet extent, vegetation changes etc..
d Explores IPCC TAR range of
climate sensitivity (i.e., 1.5 °C to 4.5 °C), while
other studies explore wider ranges
Other AgMIP initiatives include global gridded modeling, data and information technology (IT) tool development, simulation of crop pests and diseases, site - based crop -
climate sensitivity studies, and aggregation and scaling.
Based on many
studies covering a wide range of regions and crops, negative impacts of
climate change on crop yields have been more common than positive impacts (high confidence)... Since AR4, several periods of rapid food and cereal price increases following
climate extremes in key producing regions indicate a
sensitivity of current markets to
climate extremes among
other factors (medium confidence).
«The closest match, with a much lower degree of uncertainty than most
other studies, suggests
climate sensitivity is about 2.4 degrees.»
The IPCC range, on the
other hand, encompasses the overall uncertainty across a very large number of
studies, using different methods all with their own potential biases and problems (e.g., resulting from biases in proxy data used as constraints on past temperature changes, etc.) There is a number of single
studies on
climate sensitivity that have statistical uncertainties as small as Cox et al., yet different best estimates — some higher than the classic 3 °C, some lower.
The first paper adds to the literature pointing to humans as the dominant cause of warming since 1950, but also finds that the
sensitivity of the
climate system to the greenhouse - gas buildup could be lower than some
other recent
studies found.
Since none of the four models considered by the Mediterranean
study consistently out - performed the
others in simulating present - day
climate, the researchers combined their results to produce a single composite scenario for each
climate variable.2 To prevent the GCM with the greatest
sensitivity from dominating the scenarios, they first had to standardise the model results.
His
study and
other recent research, he said, suggests that «we may need to go back and start recalculating the
climate sensitivity estimates for the earth.»
Given the vast array of data from
other studies, Dr. Alley thinks that it is «much too early to assume that the
climate sensitivity is low.»
We emphasize that our
study uses
sensitivity experiments, which do not include
other important processes found in coupled
climate models (e.g., ocean dynamics).
Yes, these empirical
studies (and
others that do not make assumptions or set constraints that necessarily lead to large
climate sensitivities, constitute a body of evidence that the
climate sensiitivity is about 1 deg C for doubling, 1/3 of the IPCC «central» value.
Me neither, as the
study involved is the only one that has attempted to derive
climate sensitivity from actual observation, which gives it far more weight than the
others.
Tom, The
other studies featured in Figure 9.20 mainly use simpler
climate models than AOGCMs — models in which
climate sensitivity S can be adjusted to known values using a single parameter.
13.2.1 Incremental Scenarios for
Sensitivity Studies 13.2.2 Analogue Scenarios 13.2.2.1 Spatial analogues 13.2.2.2 Temporal analogues 13.2.3 Scenarios Based on Outputs from
Climate Models 13.2.3.1 Scenarios from General Circulation Models 13.2.3.2 Scenarios from simple climate models 13.2.4 Other Types of Sc
Climate Models 13.2.3.1 Scenarios from General Circulation Models 13.2.3.2 Scenarios from simple
climate models 13.2.4 Other Types of Sc
climate models 13.2.4
Other Types of Scenarios
Other studies (Forest et al. 2002; Knutti et al. 2003) have assumed a prior that is uniformly distributed in equilibrium
climate sensitivity, which is proportional to 1 / Y.
The
study estimates
climate sensitivity — how much the world will warm when carbon dioxide levels increase * — from changes in observed temperatures and estimates of the warming effect of greenhouse gases and
other drivers of
climate change, from the mid / late 19th century until 2016.
2)
Other studies are confirming a low
climate sensitivity to CO2 doubling around 1 C, as the recent paper by Spencer.
Skeptics often advance estimates of
climate sensitivity from
studies of the instrumental period (roughly the last ~ 150 years) over
other methods.
«What would we estimate
climate sensitivity to be, if we had no information
other than that considered by this
study.»
On the
other hand, in the SMEs with relatively high
climate sensitivity (about 4 — 10 K), or the SMEs with relatively low
climate sensitivity (about 2 — 3 K) compared to the
studies in the literature, SW and LW radiation and cloud radiative forcing are not reliable.
Antonio, While it is true that there are large uncertainties in
climate studies of
sensitivity, some methods are more justified than
others.
Some EMICs have been used to investigate both the
climate of the last glacial maximum (see Section 8.5) as well as to investigate the cause of the collapse of the conveyor in global warming experiments (Stocker and Schmittner, 1997; Rahmstorf and Ganopolski, 1999) while
others have been used to undertake a number of
sensitivity studies including the role of sub-grid scale ocean mixing in global warming experiments (Wiebe and Weaver, 1999).